mistermack wrote:What I find disturbing about the IPCC is that their "likelihood" figure of 90% that global warming is man-made is exactly the same as what they gave for their confidence figure for the melting glaciers.
What "confidence figure for the melting glaciers?" Looks like another piece of crankery. Betcha I can debunk it.
mistermack wrote:It's pretty obvious that at the end of the day, they grab these figures out of the air.
See, when you say things like this, it's extremely cranky. Baez gives a pretty high score on the crackpot index for claiming professional scientists make things up. I could look it up if you like.
mistermack wrote:What really bothers me about AGW is the reliance on feedback loops, which ARE NOT fully understood at all.
Ummmm, feedback loops are a very well-understood phenomenon in physics. As a matter of fact, in electronics engineering, they are ubiquitous. For example, you can't even begin to study audio power amplifiers until you understand feedback; that's because it's how you keep the power transistors from blowing up. Feedback loops maintain homeostases.
I don't think you understand feedback at
all.
mistermack wrote:When the earth has dived into an ice age in the past, it's been from a point where CO2 has been at it's peak, temperatures were sky high, and the feedback mechanisms should have been operating flat out.
No, they shouldn't. The Milankovitch cycles reduce the insolation before the beginning of an ice age; that's why ice ages start. We've known that since the 1960s. In case you hadn't noticed, it's kinda hard to have feedback when there's no input signal.
See? You don't even understand what feedback
is. What are you talking about it for? Did someone who has the right ideology tell you you could say it and the "warmers" wouldn't be able to argue with you?
mistermack wrote:In spite of that, the TINIEST, most gradual change in irradiation levels, apparently plunged the earth into the deepest ice-age.
Hmmm, last time I checked, the Earth's axial tilt made
seasons. Seasons are pretty TINY, right?
Let's say i put the tiniest grain of sand on you every second. I'm sure you'd be just fine after a year, right? How about a million years?
mistermack wrote:That just couldn't happen, if the proposed feedback mechanisms are as effective as we are asked to believe.
Excuse me? Feedback again? You still don't understand it. I'm pretty unsanguine about your ability to say what could and couldn't happen, when you don't even understand how feedback works.
Just sayin'.
mistermack wrote:They might well have an effect when the earth is very cold, but if they did, they have always run out of steam when the earth reached the warmest part of the cycle, which is exactly where we are now.
In the real world, we're in the middle of an ice age.
Please stop. It's embarrassing to watch you.