The Coronavirus Thread

[Brian Peacock]

The UK is the second largest contributor to the WHO - I guess that makes us the top donor now - to the tune of c.£340m ($404m US). Now, whether masks are good or bad? There's only one way to find out...

[Scot Dutchy]

[Brian Peacock]

[Animavore]

Can someone tell me what's wrong with this?

So I've worked out that in Ireland right now, we have 1807 active cases of corona virus out of 5 million people. That means the chances of you even bumping into anyone with the virus is 0.03614% and that's if all those people are out walking about. They're not, they're most likely self isolating or in hospital which brings the risk of you bumping into anyone with it down even lower than 0.03614%. Let's assume even one third of those active 1807 cases are walking about then the odds of bumping into someone who has the virus is even lower at 0.012%. Just think about that for a min, how low those odds actually are that you meet someone with it. Then let's say you do meet someone who does has the virus by some miracle, you then need to catch it from them which will only happen if they cough at you or somehow get it by being with that person (According to the HSE that needs to be approx 10-15mins). Now let's say you have the virus, the chances of you dying 6.496% and that's assuming you're most likely over 70 (I know younger people have died but it's so low, you've more chance of winning the lottery). So chances are you will not even bump into anyone who has it, no mind get it and if u do get it then you've a 94% chance of surviving (actually 99.9%) if under 50. In my opinion we should be opening the country back up fully. The statistics prove it. You actually have more chance of winning the lottery than catching this virus and dying. People know the risks now like any other disease. So let's be realistic here and get the country back open. Nobody is being forced to go back to a pub or restaurant, it should be your choice. If u feel or are afraid of getting the virus or have a medical condition then stay home but for most people it's safe. Smoking causes 100 deaths a week in Ireland (More than Corona Virus, that would be 2,100 deaths so far this year alone) but you don't see the government banning the sale of cigarettes now, do you? If you buy a packet of cigarettes and get cancer then that's the chance you take and if someone with an underlying issue goes out and mixes with crowds then that's the chance they take that they might contract the virus, people know this now and should have that choice. Also, the death rate of 1592 which is 6% of the cases confirmed, most of them, actually nearly all of them were front line workers in the hospitals or old people in care homes. So with all those statistics in mind, do you really think we should be hiding at home and keeping our country closed?

[pErvinalia]

It's like a Scot Dutchy "argument".

[Animavore]

It's like a Scot Dutchy "argument".

Ok, but I need an actual response.

[pErvinalia]

Exponential growth.

[pErvinalia]

And the reason the odds are so small is because of the measures we've taken. Without them the odds would be much higher.

[Scot Dutchy]

It's like a Scot Dutchy "argument".

Ok, but I need an actual response.

It is just what I have been saying all along. Each country is almost unique. Ireland has 5 million people in an land area that is double this country. Australia is so big it is automatically self isolating. What governments have been doing is advocating 'one size fits all' measures which is far from the truth. The figures are so low that what was predicted by the early models has not happened. The forecast was for 200 million deaths world wide! We have not reached half a million and that is accepting that the present data is accurate which is now largely far from the case.
Does anyone accept that Bangladesh has only a few hundred deaths? They dont even have and organised health service as is the case in most African countries.
We have never had an agreed protocol on what is a COVID 19 death or which deaths can be attributed to the virus.
Everything is political as is in Ireland. Your government is on hold since the last elections and by imposing such ludicrous measures most cant even remember the result.
My wife and I have not heard of one person dying from the virus. My wife's social network is not small. We have the same story of 6000 in a country of 17 million. As you say the chance of meeting anyone with the virus is far less than winning the Lotto.
Luckily this realisation is reaching more and more of the society. The easing of measures has been speeded up by months. What is happening per the first of June was planned for October.

[Brian Peacock]

Can someone tell me what's wrong with this?

So I've worked out that in Ireland right now, we have 1807 active cases of corona virus out of 5 million people. That means the chances of you even bumping into anyone with the virus is 0.03614% and that's if all those people are out walking about. They're not, they're most likely self isolating or in hospital which brings the risk of you bumping into anyone with it down even lower than 0.03614%. Let's assume even one third of those active 1807 cases are walking about then the odds of bumping into someone who has the virus is even lower at 0.012%. Just think about that for a min, how low those odds actually are that you meet someone with it. Then let's say you do meet someone who does has the virus by some miracle, you then need to catch it from them which will only happen if they cough at you or somehow get it by being with that person (According to the HSE that needs to be approx 10-15mins). Now let's say you have the virus, the chances of you dying 6.496% and that's assuming you're most likely over 70 (I know younger people have died but it's so low, you've more chance of winning the lottery). So chances are you will not even bump into anyone who has it, no mind get it and if u do get it then you've a 94% chance of surviving (actually 99.9%) if under 50. In my opinion we should be opening the country back up fully. The statistics prove it. You actually have more chance of winning the lottery than catching this virus and dying. People know the risks now like any other disease. So let's be realistic here and get the country back open. Nobody is being forced to go back to a pub or restaurant, it should be your choice. If u feel or are afraid of getting the virus or have a medical condition then stay home but for most people it's safe. Smoking causes 100 deaths a week in Ireland (More than Corona Virus, that would be 2,100 deaths so far this year alone) but you don't see the government banning the sale of cigarettes now, do you? If you buy a packet of cigarettes and get cancer then that's the chance you take and if someone with an underlying issue goes out and mixes with crowds then that's the chance they take that they might contract the virus, people know this now and should have that choice. Also, the death rate of 1592 which is 6% of the cases confirmed, most of them, actually nearly all of them were front line workers in the hospitals or old people in care homes. So with all those statistics in mind, do you really think we should be hiding at home and keeping our country closed?

The infectiousness of the virus remains the same. If all 5 million were out and about doing regular stuff then the R-number (re-infection number) of the virus, R-3.2-4.8, would undoubtedly be expressed in the population at large. Taking the conservative lower figure of 3.2 there, this would mean that if 1000 people were infected on day one they would be likely to infect 3200 others, meaning 4200 would then be infected. The next day those 4200 people would infect 13,440 more, increasing the number of infected to 17,640. The third day would see a total of 74,089 infected. 311,173 people on day four, 1,306,929 on day five, and 5,489,102 on day six.

Now I know this looks like everyone in Ireland would be infected within a week but this is only a mathematical model. In reality not everyone in the country is in contact with everybody else and not every 'contact' would necessarily result in cross-infection. So the numbers are likely to be a lot lower than the model, and by a statistically significant amount. Nonetheless, I still think it demonstrates the seriousness of the situation, particularly given that it takes between 1-3 weeks for symptoms to develop, that the jury is still out on whether prior infection enhances resistance to subsequent infections, and that many people contract the virus, and are therefore infectious, without displaying any symptoms at all. Also, with the Covid-19 mortality rate among confirmed cases starting to coalesce internationally around the 4-5% mark then giving the virus, say, a two- to three-week burn through the population could lead to an awful lot of dead people in a relatively short amount of time before a long tailing off period from that high peak. (edit: As the UK's experience demonstrates).

[Scot Dutchy]

That's accepting the data is accurate which it is not. You cant say bugger all Brian. This is the same stupid smoke screen put up by governments. We dont even know what a Covid 19 death is.

[Cunt]

People who think they disagree, often do not.

Case in point, Brian Peacock and Scot Dutchy, you both think you disagree, but if you really did, you could bet on something, where there would be a clear 'winner and loser', defining who was correct.

My guess is that you two couldn't agree on what to risk a bet on, which suggests you don't disagree as much as you think you do.

[Brian Peacock]

That's accepting the data is accurate which it is not.

I've asked you many times to justify this claim. I still don't think you've done much to meet that challenge, even though I'm more than happy to qualify my remarks and admit that data sources are less than complete at this time.

You cant say bugger all Brian. This is the same stupid smoke screen put up by governments.

You sound angry. Why?

We dont even know what a Covid 19 death is.

Yes we do, and your previous statements to the same effect simply do not make rational sense. I've explained what comorbidities are and reminded you that people without underlying health conditions are also dying. And as I've said before, when someone with an immune deficiently contracts an infection like pneumonia and dies we don't ignore the immune deficiently. Similarly we don't ignore SARS-CoV-2, and to do so during this crisis is not only misinformed, but misleading and a detriment to public health.

[Alan B]

Just watched the science here:
BBC Horizon Part 1
BBC Horizon Part 2

I prefer this to any venal political crap.

[Cunt]

Low quality bait.

Guys... don't fall for this. Someone tricked me into searching for 'BBC' once before. It's a porn thing.