BREXIT! BREXIT! BREXIT!

[Forty Two]

(Edit: in response to 42 above)

Well you are not quite up to date. Because it would actually be really dumb to leave without a deal Parliament has just voted (sensibly for once, arguably) to rule out leaving without one.

Just look at who he supports; the dumbest arse in the world who finally agreed that planes that fall out of the sky are not safe.

[Scot Dutchy]

Like I said for idiots on the other side of the pond they can never understand civilised politics.

[pErvinalia]

42 go and play in your shit arse of your country..

Great English, that.

[pErvinalia]

Very true Brian which is why idiots on the other side of the pond just dont understand how it works and does most of the UK parliament.

Great English, grammar and punctuation. Who's the idiot?

[Brian Peacock]

At this point we're still leaving the EU - the matter is about how and, to some extent, when. The reason to sort the trade arrangements out is because the EU accounts for 40% of our exports and 50% of our imports. And besides, nobody is going to vote for a party which oversaw an estimated $9bn rise in the price of food, hikes in fuel prices, and the like - as the government and others have predicted in the event of a no-deal exit.

Leaving the EU doesn't prohibit trading with the EU. The UK will simply fall into another trade category. Once the UK leaves, then it can negotiate new treaties.

The predictions about the impact of a no-deal exit take this into account.

More "chicken little" predictions. What are they basing their predictions on? They have nothing to lose in predicting disaster. And, whatever basis they are using to make such predictions - I guarantee it - are so vague and malleable as to allow any prediction that someone desires.

More "magical thinking" predictions. What are Brexiteers basing their predictions on? They have nothing to lose in predicting perpetual sunny uplands or free unicorns for all. And, whatever basis they are using to make such predictions - I guarantee it - are so vague and malleable as to allow any prediction that someone desires.

Which isn't strictly true of course - aside from it poisoning the well - unless we're to say that the considered opinions of all experts are equally unreliable. Are we to say that?

[Brian Peacock]

(Edit: in response to 42 above)

Well you are not quite up to date. Because it would actually be really dumb to leave without a deal Parliament has just voted (sensibly for once, arguably) to rule out leaving without one.

How can parliament rule out leaving without one? wasn't the referendum to leave? Now all Parliament needs to do in order to scuttle the referendum is to never pass a deal?

I think you're labouring under a misapprehension here. Yes, the nation voted in favour of leaving the EU. That was all it voted on. How that is achieved is up to the government of the day to steer through Parliament. In that process a no-deal Brexit has been taken off the table by a majority of elected MPs. it's called democracy.

Well, I admit I'm not following it closely.

You don't say.

Make a deal then. but, have done with it -- the results of leaving are not going to be an apocalypse. You've got a fine country there, and plenty of trading partners, and the EU is not going anywhere - they'll still trade with you after the exit. It's business. It's not personal.

Again, you don't understand the issue. All UK trading arrangements with the rest of the world take place under the banner of the EU (apart from those parts of the world which fall within the category of the 'protectorates and dominions' of the United Kingdom, or 'off-shore tax havens' as they're more commonly known). This is because the EU is a free trade zone, the largest free trade zone in the world. Leaving without a deal would have meant all of the UK's ongoing trading relationships stopping and new arrangements starting from an economic ground zero as far as international trade was concerned, whether that's with the EU or with China or the US etc. Their are no arrangements in place, nor can any be made until the divorce comes through. Now consider what we might need and what we have to offer and you'll understand how leaving the EU, with a deal or not, leaves us at a distinct disadvantage in the short to medium term.

[JimC]

Scot Dutchy, this post: http://www.rationalia.com/forum/viewtop ... 7#p1820207
contravenes our "play nice" rule. Please refrain from such posts in future.

[rainbow]

Leaving the EU doesn't prohibit trading with the EU. The UK will simply fall into another trade category. Once the UK leaves, then it can negotiate new treaties.

In three years the UK has failed to negotiate a deal.

How long would it take for the UK to renegotiate all its trade deals?
...just your estimate, to the closest decade will do.

[Scot Dutchy]

Scot Dutchy, this post: http://www.rationalia.com/forum/viewtop ... 7#p1820207
contravenes our "play nice" rule. Please refrain from such posts in future.

Ok sorry but...

[Scot Dutchy]

Leaving the EU doesn't prohibit trading with the EU. The UK will simply fall into another trade category. Once the UK leaves, then it can negotiate new treaties.

In three years the UK has failed to negotiate a deal.

How long would it take for the UK to renegotiate all its trade deals?
...just your estimate, to the closest decade will do.

This a bit old but still valid:
After Brexit: the UK will need to renegotiate at least 759 treaties
That does not include the vast amount of standards that have to be negotiated. It is huge and after their Brexit performance does really leave you wondering.

I am still with the notion that the whole sub plot of the right wing which is supported greatly by the world's 1% is the total destruction of the EU. It is not a lunatic conspiracy.

Bannon, although he is not the taste of the week, is not the only one but there lies a hard core in the 1% of the world (incl Russia) that hate big united free trade areas. They want to go back to the days of monetary speculation and cripple economies in order to make money. The EU has destroyed all their endeavours.

The Man Who Wants to Unmake the West

This is the real danger and many EU leaders and officials have often mentioned it.

[Forty Two]

Leaving the EU doesn't prohibit trading with the EU. The UK will simply fall into another trade category. Once the UK leaves, then it can negotiate new treaties.

In three years the UK has failed to negotiate a deal.

How long would it take for the UK to renegotiate all its trade deals?
...just your estimate, to the closest decade will do.

Not long. Trade doesn't stop. The tariff regime changes, that's all. They don't have to renegotiate "all" its trade deals. Don't goods from the EU become subject to the WTO rules at that point? There seems to be a framework default deal even with a no deal brexit.

Anyway - panic if you like. But, the UK was once not part of the EU. It's not like it's life depends on the EU.

[Forty Two]

42 go and play in your shit arse of your country and leave civilised people to find positive solutions. We all know your Orange Turd is always against the EU so just fuck off.

LOL, you don't even know what the effects of Brexit are, much less how bad they'll be. You just follow your team -- "oh, we're supposed to be outraged and afraid about this....something terrible will happen.... WTO tariff rules will apply to EU exports to the UK! Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh, my! the sky is falling, Chicken Little!"

[Scot Dutchy]

Once again I made a very stupid mistake reading your post. How is Moscow this morning?

[Rum]

Leaving the EU doesn't prohibit trading with the EU. The UK will simply fall into another trade category. Once the UK leaves, then it can negotiate new treaties.

In three years the UK has failed to negotiate a deal.

How long would it take for the UK to renegotiate all its trade deals?
...just your estimate, to the closest decade will do.

This a bit old but still valid:
After Brexit: the UK will need to renegotiate at least 759 treaties
That does not include the vast amount of standards that have to be negotiated. It is huge and after their Brexit performance does really leave you wondering.

I am still with the notion that the whole sub plot of the right wing which is supported greatly by the world's 1% is the total destruction of the EU. It is not a lunatic conspiracy.

Bannon, although he is not the taste of the week, is not the only one but there lies a hard core in the 1% of the world (incl Russia) that hate big united free trade areas. They want to go back to the days of monetary speculation and cripple economies in order to make money. The EU has destroyed all their endeavours.

The Man Who Wants to Unmake the West

This is the real danger and many EU leaders and officials have often mentioned it.

All political blocks have enemies and rivals. Sadly it is the way of the world. They see each other as competitors one way and another - and of course go as far as killing each other in the process from time to time. The stupidity of men (mostly men anyway).

[Forty Two]

At this point we're still leaving the EU - the matter is about how and, to some extent, when. The reason to sort the trade arrangements out is because the EU accounts for 40% of our exports and 50% of our imports. And besides, nobody is going to vote for a party which oversaw an estimated $9bn rise in the price of food, hikes in fuel prices, and the like - as the government and others have predicted in the event of a no-deal exit.

Leaving the EU doesn't prohibit trading with the EU. The UK will simply fall into another trade category. Once the UK leaves, then it can negotiate new treaties.

The predictions about the impact of a no-deal exit take this into account.

The "predictions" are vague portents of doom.

It's the new Anglo Saxon Chronicle -- "....never before in Britain has such a terror appeared as this we have now suffered at the hands of the heathen. Nor was it thought possible that such an inroad from the sea could be made...In this year terrible portents appeared over Northumbria and sadly affrightened the inhabitants: there were exceptional flashes of lightning, and firey dragons were seen flying in the air. A great famine followed soon upon these signs, and a little after that in the same year on the ides of June the harrying of the heathen miserably destoyed God's tariff system rapine and slaughter.."

From the Fury of the EU, O' Lord Deliver Us!

More "chicken little" predictions. What are they basing their predictions on? They have nothing to lose in predicting disaster. And, whatever basis they are using to make such predictions - I guarantee it - are so vague and malleable as to allow any prediction that someone desires.

More "magical thinking" predictions. What are Brexiteers basing their predictions on?

Nothing. Nobody can predict what the exact effects of the withdrawal will be. But, if someone predicts an apocalyptic doom, I say it's on them to present some concrete evidence. Otherwise, we all know trade doesn't become illegal when a tariff structure changes. Some tariffs will go up, others down.

From a negotiating standpoint, Europe wants the Brits to be in this panic -- they want the Brits to come to the table hungry for a deal, to avoid the disaster. They're used car salesmen. Better sign this deal today, because it won't be here tomorrow! You won't find a deal like this tomorrow! The Brits need to present a "go fuck yourself" front in order to get the best arrangement. They need to convince the Europeans that they will go out with no deal, and a smile on their faces. The Euros want a deal too - because they don't want their tariffs on exports to the UK to go up. They stand to lose in that scenario. But, they're doing a good public relations job in spreading Panic that the Brits will fall apart on Brexit, but the EU doesn't give a fuck. The reality is, that from a national and continental perspective, there isn't going to be a huge disaster. Both parties will be fine.

They have nothing to lose in predicting perpetual sunny uplands or free unicorns for all.

nobody is predicting that. One side, the Brexiters, are saying things will be better overall and in the long term, and the other is running in circles with their hair on fire predicting economic calamity.

And, whatever basis they are using to make such predictions - I guarantee it - are so vague and malleable as to allow any prediction that someone desires.

Which isn't strictly true of course - aside from it poisoning the well - unless we're to say that the considered opinions of all experts are equally unreliable. Are we to say that?

Stop whattaboutism, Brian! This is about the predictions of the Remain and EU crowd. Pointing to the predictions on the other side is whattaboutism. Either the sky is falling predictions have some specificity and merit/evidence or they don't. Declaring the Brexiters to be equally vague and unsupported in their predictions doesn't support the Leave and EU predictions, right?

And, no, of course "we" aren't to say that the considered opinions of all experts are equally unreliable. However, there is a foundation that must be laid regarding any alleged expert:

A. Is he or she an expert? In what?
B. What is that expert's opinion, exactly - with specificity?
C. Is that opinion "considered" and what evidence/data is offered by the expert to support that opinion?

There will, of course, be differences as to the validity of a given opinion and its evidentiary basis. There are lots of "experts" -- but, the long term economic effect of the United Kingdom leaving the UK without a "deal" versus with a "deal" is, I think it's fair to say, something nobody can really claim expert status on. What we have are interest groups and representatives thereof, and all too often you can "predict" what a given "expert" will say based on which interest group he or she sides with.

On an issue like Brexit, it's impossible to get a straight analysis from anyone, because people all too often start with their preference and argue from there, and most of the major media are Remainers - that's the "smart person" side of things -- the progressive side - the intellectual side - the side of the idiots, the haters and the racists is the Leave side -- they just want to leave, and they don't give a fuck about the economy because they're more concerned with keeping brown people out of the England.