Australian elections on the 2nd of July

[JimC]

They need 76 to guarantee supply. So they'd need two more in that case. Looking at the news this morning and Labor are ahead in a lot of the 10 seats ABC has called undecided. I think it could very well end up being a tie or a couple of seats either way.

I did say a member plus Katter...

[JimC]

It's looking like Turnbull will be able to form a government with independent support...

But he will face a nightmare of competing demands in the senate...

[pErvinalia]

Another double dissolution election within the next year, I'd imagine. Can't see a Coalition government getting anything done with the current Senate.

[Hermit]

It's looking like Turnbull will be able to form a government with independent support...

But he will face a nightmare of competing demands in the senate...

The coalition is assured of 74 seats right now and slightly ahead in two of the undecided ones. Labor is slightly ahead in the other three, but absentee votes, which are the only ones that remain to be counted, have always favoured the conservatives. I predict they will finish up with at least 76 seats out of the 150, and maybe more. As far as the Senate is concerned, it is an unfortunate tradition that the so-called centrists will usually support the LNP with little or no greasing of palms. The only danger for Turnbull comes from within his own party.

[pErvinalia]

absentee votes go with the general trend (which was basically 50:50). It's postal votes that usually go to the conservatives by a decent margin.

[Hermit]

The conservative coalition parties have won 76 seats now, which means they need not rely on others in the House of Representatives. They are also likely to pick up the sole remaining seat that is still undecided. Labor finished up with 68 and there are five others. Senate results won't be clear for a while yet.

Here's to another three or four years of darkness. Not that Labor would have provided much more than a glimmer, but it would be preferable to more trickle down economy and cutting education and health services in order to cut tax rates for the deserving rich.

[pErvinalia]

I think we'll be back to another election within a year. The LNP won't get anything done with the likely senate.

Regarding their seat count, once they take out a speaker, they won't have a majority any more. What they'll probably have to do is put McGowan (the independent) in as speaker I'd imagine. That will at least be a better outcome for the parliament as a whole, as partisan speakers is a disaster (although, Tony Smith from the LNP, as the last speaker, was probably the best we've had in a long time).

[JimC]

I think we'll be back to another election within a year. The LNP won't get anything done with the likely senate.

Regarding their seat count, once they take out a speaker, they won't have a majority any more. What they'll probably have to do is put McGowan (the independent) in as speaker I'd imagine. That will at least be a better outcome for the parliament as a whole, as partisan speakers is a disaster (although, Tony Smith from the LNP, as the last speaker, was probably the best we've had in a long time).

If they get 77 the speaker won't be an issue. And, in the senate, they may be able to get a majority on most issues, what with One Nation and a range of independents...

[pErvinalia]

No, the senate is worse than last time. Most of the indies are anti-neoliberal. Xenophon's senators are their best hope, but they will need 9 out of 10 independents to pass legislation that both the Greens and Labor block. If they offered centrist policies, then they would have a hope of getting some stuff through, but if Turnbull does that he will be rolled by the right of his party. They are totally fucked. What I'm surprised about is that so few people can see it. If a year passes and either Turnbull is still Prime Minister of this term or there hasn't been another election, then I'll walk from here to Melbourne to present you with a bottle of gin.

[JimC]

No, the senate is worse than last time. Most of the indies are anti-neoliberal. Xenophon's senators are their best hope, but they will need 9 out of 10 independents to pass legislation that both the Greens and Labor block. If they offered centrist policies, then they would have a hope of getting some stuff through, but if Turnbull does that he will be rolled by the right of his party. They are totally fucked. What I'm surprised about is that so few people can see it. If a year passes and either Turnbull is still Prime Minister of this term or there hasn't been another election, then I'll walk from here to Melbourne to present you with a bottle of gin.

Excellent!

Anything but Gordons...

[pErvinalia]

It'll be the cheapest shit I can find!

[JimC]

Oh god, that means Vickers...

[Hermit]

No, the senate is worse than last time. Most of the indies are anti-neoliberal. Xenophon's senators are their best hope, but they will need 9 out of 10 independents to pass legislation that both the Greens and Labor block. If they offered centrist policies, then they would have a hope of getting some stuff through, but if Turnbull does that he will be rolled by the right of his party. They are totally fucked. What I'm surprised about is that so few people can see it. If a year passes and either Turnbull is still Prime Minister of this term or there hasn't been another election, then I'll walk from here to Melbourne to present you with a bottle of gin.

Bookmarked.

Katter for speaker, and the Senate can be made to do the conservative's bidding. Remember the Australian Democrats' treachery when the GST was up for debate?

[pErvinalia]

Katter can't even speak properly, let alone be Speaker.

[JimC]

I heard Katter interviewed, and he was dead against being speaker. Too much like hard work, and no useful way of playing political games...