Global Climate Change Science News

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Sean Hayden
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Sean Hayden » Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:50 pm

AI is faster and better at Jeopardy, at diagnosing cancer, at chess, at go. This potential for excellence in specific endeavors has been known about AI since the beginning. The bigger problem for AI researchers has proven to be developing what might be called a general intelligence, something capable of leaving the Jeopardy game to navigate the larger world. I think Dennett talks about this in his essay "The Frame Problem of AI". Here's just a bit from that:
Once upon a time there was a robot, named R1 by its creators. Its only task was to fend for itself. One day its designers arranged for it to learn that its spare battery, its precious energy supply, was locked in a room with a time bomb set to go off soon. R1 located the room, and the key to the door, and formulated a plan to rescue its battery. There was a wagon in the room, and the battery was on the wagon, and R1 hypothesized that a certain action which it called PULLOUT (WAGON, ROOM) would result in the battery being removed from the room. Straightway it acted, and did succeed in getting the battery out of the room, but didn't realize that pulling the wagon would bring the bomb out along with the battery. Poor R1 had missed that obvious implications of its planned act.

Back to the drawing board. "The solution is obvious," said the designers. "Our next robot must be made to recognize not just the intended implications of its acts, but also the implications about their side effects, by deducing these implications from the descriptions it uses in formulating its plans." They called their next model, the robot-deducer, R1D1. They placed R1D1 in much the same predicament that R1 had succumbed to and as it too hit upon the idea of PULLOUT (WAGON, ROOM) it began, as designed, to consider the implications of such a course of action. It had just finished deducting that pulling the wagon out of the room would not change the color of the room's walls, and was embarking on a proof of the further implication that pulling the wagon out would cause its wheels to turn more revolutions than there were wheels on the wagon---when the bomb exploded.
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by rainbow » Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:44 am

aingira usaina duzu

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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Brian Peacock » Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:54 am

Aww. He's doing his best.
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by JimC » Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:59 am

He's the idiot who once stood up in Parliament with a lump of coal, saying "How good is coal!"... :nono:
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by rainbow » Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:59 am

JimC wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:59 am
He's the idiot who once stood up in Parliament with a lump of coal, saying "How good is coal!"... :nono:
Mebbe he was comparing it to his intellect?
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Galaxian » Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:38 am

Brian Peacock wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:44 am
"Estimates of when the world will top safe CO2 levels have varied over time. A 2013 IPCC forecast said the 1.5° threshold could be breached as soon as 2021. In a 2018 report, the panel estimated that Paris commitments, even if followed by more stringent emissions reductions in 2030, won’t be sufficient to limit warming to 1.5°. Some studies suggest that existing emissions have already committed the world to a greater than 33% chance of 1.5° warming or more, whereas others suggest the world may have 20 more years at current emissions rates before blowing past the mark.
Bringing CO2 concentrations back to safe levels, many scientists believe, will require the extraction of a significant amount of CO2 from the atmosphere. There are two ways to mitigate CO2-caused warming: geoengineering to curb the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface, and removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Known as negative emissions technologies (NETs), the various methods that take the second approach form the subject of this article."

https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/ ... /PT.3.4389
The reason why Galaxian is usually right is because I don't pay much attention to Greta Thunberg or IPCC or NASA proclamations. You really have to steer clear of zealots & crooks... they have an agenda to fulfill, either for reward or threats.

So back to brass tacks: There's no such thing as an upper "safe level" of CO2. Because this trace gas does most of its heat retention work at low concentrations. Doubling its concentration does NOT double its effect... it is a law of diminishing returns. That's why the CO2 concentration has been several times higher in the past without ill effect to the forests or the oceans or their inhabitants:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/08/ ... n-dioxide/

https://i2.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/w ... =605&ssl=1
Notice how the influence curve levels out at 550 ppm, such that the insulation effect rises by just 10 W/m2 from 400 to 600 ppm, that's just 4% !
Image

https://i2.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/w ... =598&ssl=1
Here's something even more pertinent: It relegates CO2 to its lowly place as a minor constituent of the bogus anthropogenic global warming. Remember that water vapor has a much higher influence... Do they intend to get rid of clouds, humidity, & rain?
Image

It's important that we don't become 'virtue-signalling' bigots...That's the ones totalitarians & despots relish most of all :lou:
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The more important a news item, the more likely that it's a hidden agenda disinformation_Galaxian
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:51 am

No YouTube videos?
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Tero » Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:32 am

The last bar chart in you link
https://i2.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/w ... arming.png
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/08/ ... n-dioxide/

Merely proves IPCC claim. The significance ofvthe first 20 ppm does not change the conclusion of the models. The shading of the bar graphs is supposed to point out that the CO2 quit warming past 300pm. There are other sources that disprove that.

Paper has no sources for the data. But Archibald is a well known cherry picker.
https://skepticalscience.com/Archibalds ... tures.html
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Tero » Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:51 am

Moreover, the climate models do NOT assume a linear effect:
The amount of CO2 is increasing all the time - we just passed a landmark 400 parts per million concentration of atmospheric CO2, up from around 280ppm before the industrial revolution. That’s a 42.8% increase.

A tiny amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, like methane and water vapour, keep the Earth’s surface 30°Celsius (54°F) warmer than it would be without them. We have added 42% more CO2 but that doesn't mean the temperature will go up by 42% too.

There are several reasons why. Doubling the amount of CO2 does not double the greenhouse effect. The way the climate reacts is also complex, and it is difficult to separate the effects of natural changes from man-made ones over short periods of time.

As the amount of man-made CO2 goes up, temperatures do not rise at the same rate. In fact, although estimates vary - climate sensitivity is a hot topic in climate science, if you’ll forgive the pun - the last IPCC report (AR4) described the likely range as between 2 and 4.5 degrees C, for double the amount of CO2 compared to pre-industrial levels.
variability is know as well:

Annual atmospheric carbon dioxide (NOAA) and annual global temperature anomaly (GISS) from 1977 to 1985 and 1981 to 1989.
Image

What causes this climate variability? Ocean cycles shuffle heat around the climate by exchanging heat between the ocean and atmosphere. This can have a strong short term effect on global temperature, the most dominant cycle being the El Niño Southern Oscillation. In 2008, the Pacific Ocean was in a strong La Niña phase, leading to unusually cool temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean.
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Tero » Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:43 pm

"Sounds good but it will cost. And use tax money."
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Galaxian » Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:59 am

Here's the CDC channel; another great site of factual climate data supported by lots of graphs & tables:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_8xd0LCeRQ


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewJ6TI8ccAw


The sociopath leaders of the world can rely on public ignorance & insouciance to push whatever fraud they want :zilla:
The true seeker looks for the truth wherever it may be and readily accepts it, without shame, without hope for reward and without fear of punishment._Sam Nejad
There's no Mercy. There's no Justice. There is only Natural Selection! _Galaxian
The more important a news item, the more likely that it's a hidden agenda disinformation_Galaxian
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Brian Peacock » Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:31 pm

Galaxian's general mistrust of authoritative voices is perhaps understandable, but aside from the irony of casting himself as the authority here, if that mistrust was justified in every case we wouldn't have bothered coming down from the trees.

He really doesn't understand how science operates or how scientific understandings are established and yet always remain provisional in nature. Science is a progressive endeavour, and yet because some science may be overturned or understood in a different context in the future -- as indeed it may -- then Galaxian implores us to assume not only that we are mistaken to think we are entitled to know what we know today, but that if we do we have been misled or deceived by maliciously malign agents.

The facts don't care about your trust issues mate. The maliciously malign agents here are those who explicitly exploit your insecurities in order to maintain their own authority and control. Have you not noticed that scientists don't actually run the world, but only seek to explain some aspect of it?
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There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

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"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by Tero » Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:37 pm

Very few people are willing to put science first. I have a friend who pretends to understand a lot of stuff. But really, he is only good at things that are mechanical. When I explain gases and watts per square meter, I can see his responses are cut and paste.
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by JimC » Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:10 pm

The big end of town is moving away from coal:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/ ... s/11903928
It was a story that raised a few hackles, particularly in Canberra, but one largely overlooked as the unfolding disaster gripped the nation.

Early last month, as fire swept across large parts of the east coast and South Australia but before the Christmas conflagration, secret internal documents detailing ANZ's rapid retreat from coal hit the news.

Contrary to its public statements before Parliament just a few weeks before, the bank had formulated a plan to shed more than $700 million in thermal coal loans within the next four years: a 75 per cent reduction.

This was a major shift for ANZ, the country's biggest lender to the coal industry, and one that would bring it into line with the Commonwealth Bank and the National Australia Bank.

A few weeks later, investment bank Goldman Sachs, in one of the strongest positions from any American financier, ruled out future thermal coal financing, either for new mines or power stations globally.

Then, a fortnight ago, the world's biggest investment house Blackrock, announced it was drastically reducing its exposure to thermal coal.

These weren't knee-jerk reactions to the horror, the wholesale destruction and tragic loss of life across rural Australia, unfolding on television screens around the world.

Nor were they the actions of the "green left".

These were considered, long-term, strategic decisions made individually by disparate groups united by a single cause — the unbridled pursuit of profit.

The message each is broadcasting is clear. When it comes to investment, coal, particularly thermal coal for electricity generation, has little, if any, future.

It's a message our politicians should heed if they want to limit the damage to communities that rely upon the coal industry.
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Re: Global Climate Change Science News

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:04 am

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"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
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"My penis is VERY small" - Cunt.

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