Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

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Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by Sean Hayden » Sun Nov 17, 2024 12:51 pm

Not according to this paper: Have beliefs in conspiracy theories increased over time? published by PLOS One.
Abstract

The public is convinced that beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing, and many scholars, journalists, and policymakers agree. Given the associations between conspiracy theories and many non-normative tendencies, lawmakers have called for policies to address these increases. However, little evidence has been provided to demonstrate that beliefs in conspiracy theories have, in fact, increased over time. We address this evidentiary gap. Study 1 investigates change in the proportion of Americans believing 46 conspiracy theories; our observations in some instances span half a century. Study 2 examines change in the proportion of individuals across six European countries believing six conspiracy theories. Study 3 traces beliefs about which groups are conspiring against “us,” while Study 4 tracks generalized conspiracy thinking in the U.S. from 2012 to 2021. In no instance do we observe systematic evidence for an increase in conspiracism, however operationalized. We discuss the theoretical and policy implications of our findings.
It's worth pointing out--and they do--that while they don't find any evidence of an increase in the number of people who believe in certain theories, the "baseline" itself is alarming. For example, one poll used as a starting point to measure growth found that about 30% of Americans believed covid was intentionally released. That's incredible.

Of course they note the difficulty of measuring an increase in conspiratorial thinking by having guys in lab coats poll potential conspiratorial thinkers. :biggrin: But I'm not sure how well their justification for why that isn't necessarily a problem works. Essentially they show that a predisposition towards conspiratorial thinking has not increased. First that seems normal to me. I would think that on average we all have a predisposition for conspiratorial thinking as a result of how we're wired. We wouldn't expect to see big swings either way here. But how does that directly address the problem of seeing fewer affirmative responses due to fearfulness? They seem to be measuring two distinct things. A predisposition towards conspiratorial thinking needn't move with an increase or decrease in conspiratorial beliefs.
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by aufbahrung » Sun Nov 17, 2024 6:16 pm

Covid was intentionally released for internal Chinese population control - it's not like Wuhan isn't the centre of Chinese genetic science. To claim a chance mutation gave rise to the sixth human infecting common corona type virus is also a big ask.
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by Brian Peacock » Sun Nov 17, 2024 8:17 pm

Nice story bro. Got anything more than a shiver in yer gizzard to back all that up?
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by JimC » Tue Nov 19, 2024 12:28 am

One factor is simply how much public and media discussion has occurred about conspiracy theories, especially post Covid.With so many people talking about the issue, it could seem like conspiratorial thinking has increased, when it's really just more discussion about it.
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Nov 19, 2024 12:57 am

Maybe they should look at members of congress/parliament and their conspiratorial thinking over time. I bet it's growing.
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by Brian Peacock » Tue Nov 19, 2024 11:43 am

Liz Truss has doubled down, and doubled down again on how the Woke Markets were really responsible for her wiping £60bn of the pound in 2 hours. When you're someone like Truss, with an unshakeable conviction that you are absolutely right about everything, not to mention phenomenally clever, uniquely insightful, and smokin' hot t'boot, then when reality doesn't do you the courtesy of lining up with your inner vision then surely it must the work of dark forces undermining your awesome brilliance. I mean, what's the alternative to that?
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by Svartalf » Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:56 pm

what has the rt hon dame truss done to the sterling?
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by Brian Peacock » Tue Nov 19, 2024 4:24 pm

Svartalf wrote:what has the rt hon dame truss done to the sterling?
Did you not hear. When she was PM for 42 days her chancellor announced a budget to parliament that saw the pound start to tumble before he'd finished speaking. After 4 days (two of which were non-trading days) the Bank of England had to step in, to the tune of around 60 million squid. The economic and political fallout caused the party that had so recently elected as a replacement for Bojo to defenestrate her.

On the day Nigel Farage said it was the best budget in 200 years, and all the right-wing think-tanks hailed it as a bold step towards a libertarian market led utopia. But those who spend their days assessing financial risk and eking out a few millions placing bets on the future value of stuff - with other people's money of course - determined that selling pounds quickly before they dropped too far below what they'd paid for them was the most profitable thing to do in the circumstances. The Bank of England had to buy them back to shore up the pound's dwindling value.

Truss wanted to do a capitalism so hard, but in the end she was undone by the very capital forces she hoped to court and impress. Nowadays she really does raise herself up on her hind legs to complain that "Woke" financial market traders decided to scupper her economic hopes and dreams because they had taken against her personally. She's not responsible you see - she's actually the victim here.

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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by Svartalf » Tue Nov 19, 2024 5:37 pm

Truth to tell, those elements of her short lived government hadn't made their way south, so I didn't know what had transpired
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Re: Conspiratorial Thinking Increasing(?)

Post by Brian Peacock » Wed Nov 20, 2024 6:59 am

Her fight against the "anti-growth agenda" is what's paying the bills now as she tours mostly US think-tanks and fringe right-wing events promoting her unintentionally funny book "10 years to save the West" (from Woke, of course).
Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
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"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

Frank Zappa

"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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