Great Barrington Declaration

[Hermit]

As humans we often find patterns where there are none. Was I doing this, or is my conspiracy theory valid?

Perhaps you could make your theory explicit. I can't work out what it is by looking at your chart. If you are suggesting that the Great Barrington Declaration has caused an upsurge in new cases in the UK I would say the connection between the two is tenuous. The increase of new cases had already tripled between the 12th of September and the date (4th of October) on which the GBD was signed.

[rainbow]

As humans we often find patterns where there are none. Was I doing this, or is my conspiracy theory valid?

Perhaps you could make your theory explicit. I can't work out what it is by looking at your chart. If you are suggesting that the Great Barrington Declaration has caused an upsurge in new cases in the UK I would say the connection between the two is tenuous.

The graph for the US could be used, but the noise created by Trump's SuperSpreader events in late August (Arizona Rallies), going through November - would make the link difficult to see.

The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine.

Many experts say “herd immunity” — the point at which a disease stops spreading because nearly everyone in a population has contracted it — is still very far-off. Leading experts have concluded, using different scientific methods, that about 85 to 90 percent of the American population is still susceptible to the coronavirus.

On a call convened Monday by the White House, two senior administration officials, both speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to give their names, cited an October 4 petition titled The Great Barrington Declaration, which argues against lockdowns and calls for a reopening of businesses and schools.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/13 ... irus-covid

[Hermit]

As humans we often find patterns where there are none. Was I doing this, or is my conspiracy theory valid?

Perhaps you could make your theory explicit. I can't work out what it is by looking at your chart. If you are suggesting that the Great Barrington Declaration has caused an upsurge in new cases in the UK I would say the connection between the two is tenuous.

The graph for the US could be used, but the noise created by Trump's SuperSpreader events in late August (Arizona Rallies), going through November - would make the link difficult to see.

The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine.

Many experts say “herd immunity” — the point at which a disease stops spreading because nearly everyone in a population has contracted it — is still very far-off. Leading experts have concluded, using different scientific methods, that about 85 to 90 percent of the American population is still susceptible to the coronavirus.

On a call convened Monday by the White House, two senior administration officials, both speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to give their names, cited an October 4 petition titled The Great Barrington Declaration, which argues against lockdowns and calls for a reopening of businesses and schools.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/13 ... irus-covid

There does not appear a noticeable logarithmic increase in the rate of new cases around that time in the US either.

[rainbow]

There does not appear a noticeable logarithmic increase in the rate of new cases around that time in the US either.

The daily new cases from World-o-Meter shows better detail coupled with the 7-day moving average:

So at the time of the GBD, the rates were steady.
There was an exponential growth following this, but it did co-inside with the elections.
After the elections, it dropped off and then got a surge from Thanksgiving.
Then X-mass.

[JimC]

In our evolutionary past, on average, it was probably better to over-apply the pattern searching cognitive function rather than miss seeing patterns with fitness enhancing information.

[Brian Peacock]

Which is why I rip the still beating heart out of a goose every evening to ensure a good harvest come the autumn.

[Hermit]

There does not appear a noticeable logarithmic increase in the rate of new cases around that time in the US either.

The daily new cases from World-o-Meter shows better detail coupled with the 7-day moving average:
US.JPG

So at the time of the GBD, the rates were steady.
There was an exponential growth following this, but it did co-inside with the elections.
After the elections, it dropped off and then got a surge from Thanksgiving.
Then X-mass.

You need to look at the rate of increase on the logarithmic scale. There is no detectable change in the five weeks following the publication of the Great Barrington Declaration. The gradient increases a few days after Halloween and stays steady at that angle until halfway through January. Then it dips slightly.