Ancient Hoax Story

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L'Emmerdeur
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Ancient Hoax Story

Post by L'Emmerdeur » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:51 pm

Seriously, who do these people think they're fooling? Certainly not perceptive individuals like Scott Pruitt, William Happer, Larry Kudlow, et cetera. It's just a model, and probably they were paid by the Chinese, anyway.

'Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but profoundly changed Earth's climate'
Millennia ago, ancient farmers cleared land to plant wheat and maize, potatoes and squash. They flooded fields to grow rice. They began to raise livestock. And unknowingly, they may have been fundamentally altering the climate of Earth.

A study published in the journal Scientific Reports provides new evidence that ancient farming practices led to a rise in the atmospheric emission of the heat-trapping gases carbon dioxide and methane -- a rise that has continued since, unlike the trend at any other time in Earth's geologic history.

It also shows that without this human influence, by the start of the Industrial Revolution, the planet would have likely been headed for another ice age.

"Had it not been for early agriculture, Earth's climate would be significantly cooler today," says lead author, Stephen Vavrus, a senior scientist in the University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Climatic Research in the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies. "The ancient roots of farming produced enough carbon dioxide and methane to influence the environment."

The findings are based on a sophisticated climate model that compared our current geologic time period, called the Holocene, to a similar period 800,000 years ago. They show the earlier period, called MIS19, was already 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.3 C) cooler globally than the equivalent time in the Holocene, around the year 1850. This effect would have been more pronounced in the Arctic, where the model shows temperatures were 9-to-11 degrees Fahrenheit colder.

Using climate reconstructions based on ice core data, the model also showed that while MIS19 and the Holocene began with similar carbon dioxide and methane concentrations, MIS19 saw an overall steady drop in both greenhouse gases while the Holocene reversed direction 5,000 years ago, hitting peak concentrations of both gases by 1850. The researchers deliberately cut the model off at the start of the Industrial Revolution, when sources of greenhouse gas emissions became much more numerous.

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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by Seabass » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:02 am

We'll need get Trump's expertise on this matter. He knows stuff about hairspray and such.
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:29 am

See, climate change is good!
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by JimC » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:31 am

There was a fashion for the deniers to say that global warming was all that stood between us and a new ice age...
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by L'Emmerdeur » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:53 am

If greenhouse gases generated by human activity warmed the climate enough to stave off an ice age, those same gases at a higher level could result in climatological changes which are much less desirable, you'd think.

Nah, that's just crazy talk. I need to remember to ignore the socialist/Chinese propaganda! It's all a plot to redistribute wealth and destroy capitalism.

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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:13 am

It if wasn't for this excellent climate change, we'd all be eaten by polar bears. #BURNMORECOAL!
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:47 am

How big a population are we talking about?
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by Brian Peacock » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:52 pm

No more than 12 million.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:15 am

My point. Spread over the world not even evenly. Have that much influence?
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by JimC » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:17 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:15 am
My point. Spread over the world not even evenly. Have that much influence?
Well, their research seems to point to a rise in greenhouse gases that correspond to those ancient human activities. Not proof, perhaps, but suggestive at least...
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:40 am

I have problems with that. Just the occasional wood fire? Hardly surely.
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by L'Emmerdeur » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:20 am

Refutations of specific elements of the evidence and the hypothesis would be interesting.
Fifteen years ago, study co-author William Ruddiman, emeritus paleoclimatologist at the University of Virginia, was studying methane and carbon dioxide trapped in Antarctic ice going back tens of thousands of years when he observed something unusual.

"I noticed that methane concentrations started decreasing about 10,000 years ago and then reversed direction 5,000 years ago and I also noted that carbon dioxide also started decreasing around 10,000 years ago and then reversed direction about 7,000 years ago," says Ruddiman. "It alerted me that there was something strange about this interglaciation ... the only explanation I could come up with is early agriculture, which put greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and that was the start of it all."

Ruddiman named this the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis and a number of studies have recently emerged suggesting its plausibility. They document widespread deforestation in Europe beginning around 6,000 years ago, the emergence of large farming settlements in China 7,000 years ago, plus the spread of rice paddies -- robust sources of methane -- throughout northeast Asia by 5,000 years ago.

[re-link to article]
The full paper is also available for free: 'Glacial Inception in Marine Isotope Stage 19: An Orbital Analog for a Natural Holocene Climate'

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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by Hermit » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:56 pm

L'Emmerdeur wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:20 am
Refutations of specific elements of the evidence and the hypothesis would be interesting.
Fifteen years ago, study co-author William Ruddiman, emeritus paleoclimatologist at the University of Virginia, was studying methane and carbon dioxide trapped in Antarctic ice going back tens of thousands of years when he observed something unusual.

"I noticed that methane concentrations started decreasing about 10,000 years ago and then reversed direction 5,000 years ago and I also noted that carbon dioxide also started decreasing around 10,000 years ago and then reversed direction about 7,000 years ago," says Ruddiman. "It alerted me that there was something strange about this interglaciation ... the only explanation I could come up with is early agriculture, which put greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and that was the start of it all."

Ruddiman named this the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis and a number of studies have recently emerged suggesting its plausibility. They document widespread deforestation in Europe beginning around 6,000 years ago, the emergence of large farming settlements in China 7,000 years ago, plus the spread of rice paddies -- robust sources of methane -- throughout northeast Asia by 5,000 years ago.

[re-link to article]
The full paper is also available for free: 'Glacial Inception in Marine Isotope Stage 19: An Orbital Analog for a Natural Holocene Climate'
Also, much of Greece and Egypt was deforested around that time. Reason? The timber was burned during the burgeoning need for forging bronze age weapons. This was actually well documented at the time. For instance, in Egypt a law was passed mandating the death penalty for unauthorised harvesting of timber for domestic firewood on account of the needs of the armaments industry having dibs on it.

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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by Tero » Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:24 pm

Good plan for journal: Scientific Reports.

That way you know it’s scientifical!

But just by population, we started to have an effect by 1800. People had to walk or use horse and buggy or sail, so it was still ”mostly right.”

Greece and Egypt: let them burn dried camel dung.
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Re: Ancient Hoax Story

Post by Brian Peacock » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:20 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:My point. Spread over the world not even evenly. Have that much influence?
The development of agriculture and animal husbandry secured food resources which led to an increase in the rate of population growth, which in turn left to more farming and the rise of trade in surplus commodities - basically, an economy, one that extended beyond the level of the individual community. This is where globalisation was spawned.
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"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

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"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
.

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