Global Life Expectancy

[Blind groper]

In my latest New Scientist, I see that global life expectancy, as an average that includes all third world countries, has for the first time, risen above 70 years. 70.4 years old to be exact.

Is this a cause for optimism about human development or what?

[SteveB]

I suppose, I also means overpopulation will be an ever bigger problem with people living so damn long.

[Svartalf]

More idiots living longer, is that a motive for rejoicing?

[Blind groper]

Global life expectancy and global fertility are two different things. Fertility has been dropping for the past 50 years, from 5.5 offspring per couple to 2.4 at latest count. 2.4 is only a little above replacement, and this will (according to the United Nations) drop to 2.0 by 2050, which is well below replacement rate.

The longer life expectancy reflects better human welfare, with less disease, better health, less hunger, less war, less murder, and so on.

[Ian]

Check out the book Abundance by Peter Diamandis. Optimism like that is only the beginning. We're headed towards a Star Trek-like utopia, IMHO.

[Blind groper]

I am half way through reading it now, Ian. Fascinating stuff.

[Ian]

I suppose, I also means overpopulation will be an ever bigger problem with people living so damn long.

I think overpopulation will not be so big a problem as will the demographic shifts that come with the world becoming older, more edcated, and more affluent than it is now. Earth's population will plateau (and potentially even decline) by later in the century. Before then though, economic systems everywhere will be strained and will have to make major adjustments.

[Clinton Huxley]

I can't wait until a terse steel robot is wiping my bum in a nursing home.

[JimC]

I can't wait until a terse steel robot is wiping my bum in a nursing home.

As long as they're programmed to supply gin, and find missing cardigans...

[Clinton Huxley]

I can't wait until a terse steel robot is wiping my bum in a nursing home.

As long as they're programmed to supply gin, and find missing cardigans...

When your nurse looks as terrifying as this, you will need to stay drunk...

[Cormac]

I suppose, I also means overpopulation will be an ever bigger problem with people living so damn long.

I think it mire likely that the global population will begin to shrink within the next 30 - 50 years.

[Blind groper]

I think it mire likely that the global population will begin to shrink within the next 30 - 50 years.

In the western world, that is already the case. The only thing keeping our populations up is immigration. It is all those bloody women, refusing to pop out more than one ankle biter.

[Jason]

Global life expectancy and global fertility are two different things. Fertility has been dropping for the past 50 years, from 5.5 offspring per couple to 2.4 at latest count. 2.4 is only a little above replacement, and this will (according to the United Nations) drop to 2.0 by 2050, which is well below replacement rate.

The longer life expectancy reflects better human welfare, with less disease, better health, less hunger, less war, less murder, and so on.

In reality, it's a big problem. There are not enough people to fill the gaps left in the workforce by the people retiring causing people to have work beyond retirement age, a lack of funding from the shrinking taxbase for care for the elderly, and a shrinking economy. Of course it should normalize once the fogies die off if birth rates are maintained.

[SteveB]

I think it mire likely that the global population will begin to shrink within the next 30 - 50 years.

In the western world, that is already the case. The only thing keeping our populations up is immigration. It is all those bloody women, refusing to pop out more than one ankle biter.

Yes, I blame Bella as well!

[Cormac]

Global life expectancy and global fertility are two different things. Fertility has been dropping for the past 50 years, from 5.5 offspring per couple to 2.4 at latest count. 2.4 is only a little above replacement, and this will (according to the United Nations) drop to 2.0 by 2050, which is well below replacement rate.

The longer life expectancy reflects better human welfare, with less disease, better health, less hunger, less war, less murder, and so on.

In reality, it's a big problem. There are not enough people to fill the gaps left in the workforce by the people retiring causing people to have work beyond retirement age, a lack of funding from the shrinking taxbase for care for the elderly, and a shrinking economy. Of course it should normalize once the fogies die off if birth rates are maintained.

This is why countries have to stop the bullshit of having the working population pay for the pensions of the retired populations.

We had started on a fix for this in Ireland by creating the National Pension Reserve Fund, by way of diverting a % of state taxation into this fund on an annual basis, to be used in the future to ultimately replace the need for working people to pay for the retired.

Unfortunately, this fund has been raided to shore up the banks. The idea is good though, and we'll re-establish it.