Science news of the day thread.

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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by macdoc » Sun Apr 09, 2023 12:25 am

Exactly

....China is also decarbonizing far faster than other large powers despite also increasing its middle class prosperity immensely...a very difficult task and the pace impossible in the inherently high red tape democracies.

India is still very poor so it's not a currently a major contributor at 7% total of world emissions and a very low 1.9 co2 tons per capita. India can frog jump to a new economy without a grid and has immense solar resources plus some nuclear.

France, Canada and Norway have nuclear or hydro investments made decades ago that paid off in lower carbon footprints and both France and Norway make additional headway as does Euro as a whole ....Putin be damned.

....Australia could be and to some degree is moving to low carbon power but could be far faster very easily. S Australia certainly showing the way.

The US is a mixed bag of lots of carbon neutral progress against dug in resistance and high emissions per capita.

Canada lags tho Ontario and Quebec are essentially carbon neutral for power thanks to Ontario eliminating coal in a single decade and represents 40% of the 15th-largest GDP by PPP in the world but still regretably high emissions per person. Quebecs Hydro resources are immense and it represents 20% of Canada GDP.

Failing a breakthrough in massive carbon capture staying under 2.0 by turn of the century is a pipe dream ....we have made our collective bed.
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by Brian Peacock » Sun Apr 09, 2023 1:31 am


macdoc wrote:I think the traditional response to the blather above is fuck off. :lay:
....
Bring some science to the table instead of your vague meanderings and attributions with no basis in fact.
The scientific evidence for anthropogenic Global Heating is settled - indisputable, unless your corporate or political interest lay in disputing or down playing it. The questions then are about what to do with that robust knowledge from the position we find ourselves in today.

So can you articulate what exactly you disagree with in my previous post?
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by pErvinalia » Sun Apr 09, 2023 2:20 am

Brian's perspective is coming from political science, so not real science, but the effect is real nonetheless. I tend to think it's a generational thing. The younger generations will demand green energy, and corporations will provide. It will all be too late, of course, to stem the 2C tide. But might stop us from reaching something truly civilisation ending.
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by macdoc » Sun Apr 09, 2023 6:57 am

Fair assessement - I suspect that we will breach 2C mid-century and perhaps even reach 3C before century end and then manage to get it back down to 2C at some point or even lower via sequestration or geo-engineering of another sort.

Large scale biological carbon sequestration can happen on decades scale and could even overshoot.
The Milancovich cycle is actually moving in the direction of a cooler climate and stronger ice ages - we reversed that starting in the 1800's and cancelled the next ice age timing but the orbital forcing remains there and if we negate or reverse the AGW forcing there could be an overshoot which would make for an interesting time for descendants.

Any moderately technological nation can pump enough SO2 into the stratosphere to negate the existing increase ......lots of downsides to it and it could start a limited war but the lever is there.

The other factor is declining population after 2050

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... inds-study
n the second, more optimistic scenario – with governments across the world raising taxes on the wealthy to invest in education, social services and improved equality – it estimates human numbers could hit a high of 8.5 billion as early as 2040 and then fall by about a third to about 6 billion in 2100. Under this pathway, they foresee considerable gains by mid-century for human society and the natural environment.
Interesting times.....too bad I won't be around to see it. :cry:

https://www.businessinsider.com/great-l ... my-2022-10
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by pErvinalia » Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:05 am

If we overshoot we can just dig up and burn all the remaining coal and oil.. :read:
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by macdoc » Sun Apr 09, 2023 10:27 am

ur sooo bad.
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by JimC » Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:11 pm

pErvinalia wrote:
Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:05 am
If we overshoot we can just dig up and burn all the remaining coal and oil.. :read:
I read an SF story once about an alien world where a developing ice age threatened their civilisation. They dealt with it by putting huge mirrors in space to beam down extra sunlight...
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by macdoc » Mon Apr 10, 2023 6:05 am

As I was saying 3C :prof:
Moving towards 3 degrees of warming -- the phasing out of coal is too slow
Date:
April 6, 2023
Source:
Chalmers University of Technology
Summary:
The use of coal power is not decreasing fast enough. The Paris Agreement's target of a maximum of 2 degrees of warming appear to be missed, and the world is moving towards a temperature increase of 2.5 -- 3 degrees. At the same time it is feasible to avoid higher warming.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 075654.htm
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by JimC » Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:14 am

OK, you, Brian and I would all agree that the phasing out of coal is still too slow. The question is, to what degree is the solution to increasing the rate of phasing it out a political or technological problem. I guess it is both, but, to be honest, I simply do not know how powerful each might be...
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by macdoc » Mon Apr 10, 2023 11:09 am

It is country specific so there is not just one answer.

It was relatively easy for Ontario to eliminate coal (25% of power supply ) within a decade as we had good alternatives with a strong nuclear fleet, growing renewables and lots of natural gas....it did take a focused government over a few terms to see it through.

Germany could have but decided to go away from nukes as did Japan.....more is the pity.

It is only within the last ten years that solar/wind became cheaper than coal if externalities are not counted and of course fossil fuel lobbies are very strong and there is the question of grids and base loads and storage to juggle. Getting rid of the trillion dollars of fossil fuel subsidies would be a good start and THAT is politics.

UK has a bit of a dodge moving coal plants to bio-mass which might have helped but it is controversial. UK is disgraceful with lack of retro-fitting homes with insulation to stop wasting heating and soon enough a/c

Some of the Nordic countries also use bio-mass so.... :thinks:

EV vehicles have added another wrinkle as grids need upgrading as does storage.

Japan is finally rethinking nukes ...it's about time.
Two under-construction reactors (Ohma and Shimane 3) have also applied. “In light of the war between Ukraine and Russia, Japan's prime minister announced that the country would accelerate the restart of nine units by winter 2022, and a further seven units by summer 2023,” the WNA has reported. 1.
France has decided to put more into nuclear instead of phasing it out for renewables.

Germany has stopped phase out.
Germany to delay phase-out of nuclear plants to shore up ...

The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com › world › sep › german...
5 Sept 2022 — Germany is to temporarily halt the phasing-out of two nuclear power plants in an effort to shore up energy security after Russia cut supplies
China races ahead because they have to, have central control of priorities.

Then there us the US :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by macdoc » Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:00 pm

some small hope
The end is nigh for gas-powered cars / The Environmental Protection Agency is preparing to unveil strict new standards to boost EVs — and effectively phase out the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles.
https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/10/2367 ... as-car-end
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by JimC » Tue Apr 11, 2023 3:10 am

Are there any EV motorbikes, mac?
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Apr 11, 2023 3:13 am

There are.
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by JimC » Tue Apr 11, 2023 4:34 am

Do they provide a throbbing sensation between one's legs?
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Re: Science news of the day thread.

Post by macdoc » Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:34 am

There are including what for a while was the fastest motorbike in the world of any sort
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https://lightningmotorcycle.com/strike- ... fications/

There are some range issues of course and weight and price but it is coming. There is an Isle of Man TT race for eMotorcycles.
Image
https://electrek.co/2019/06/07/electric ... zero-race/

What is emerging is in the long range bicycle/eScooter area with fewer bits of red tape and replacing a second car.
Image
https://www.northweststar.com.au/story/ ... h-e-bikes/
"I saw e-bikes everywhere in Europe: everyone was riding e-bikes to schools, dropping the kids off and going to shops and it was already normalised," he said. "No one would ever question you walking into a coffee shop from an e-bike.
Some with very long ranges
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