Children's narcolepsy connected to GSK flu shot?

[Ronja]

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Tuesday more investigation was needed into the possible risk of narcolepsy, a rare sleeping disorder, from GlaxoSmithKline's Pandemrix H1N1 flu vaccine.

A WHO advisory panel made the decision after a Finnish study published last week suggested children who got the shot were nine times more likely to suffer from narcolepsy, which causes a person to fall asleep suddenly and unexpectedly.

WHO spokeswoman Alison Brunier told a briefing in Geneva that Pandemrix remains on the WHO's list of prequalified vaccines, and there would be no changes to WHO recommendations as a result of the Finnish study.

"This means that countries should continue vaccinating against H1N1 to immunise people at risk of severe disease ... using monovalent vaccines, including Pandemrix, if no trivalent seasonal vaccine is available," she said. ...

source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/0 ... NQ20110208

The number of reported cases worldwide thus far, according to GlaxoSmithKline, is 162. The number of vaccine doses delivered worldwide, according to same, is 31 million. If I can do the math, that would mean an approximate risk of 1:200,000 - should that be viewed as a serious risk? (of course the numbers can still change - how large a percentage of the delivered vaccine doses was actually used and are there more cases) I can't find a VAERS classification now (their website sucks a bit), but one source puts 1:600,000 as "low risk" http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00046738.htm.

The weird thing is that most of the cases reported thus far are from Finland, Sweden and according to some sources, Iceland.

A preliminary study by Finland's National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL published a week ago said the most likely explanation of the pattern found in four to 19 year olds was the "joint effect of the vaccine and some other factor(s)."

source: http://www.timeslive.co.za/world/articl ... y-concerns

What other factor(s) could be apparently much more prevalent in these countries - or are we just the first to start counting the cases thoroughly? I am somewhat perplexed.

[Tero]

MS has a higher incidence in the north. Someone speculated a vitamin d connection.

We may never know in both cases.

[Ronja]

True, Tero - I had forgotten that. Also, especially Finns have a number of specific genetic diseases. Limited genetic mixing could be behind this H1N1 vaccine reaction, too - but I would not bet much on finding the exact cause(s) very soon.

Oh I wish they wrote these population / genetic diseases pages for ordinary humans! Too many acronyms http://www.findis.org/main.php?action=disease

[GenesForLife]

I hope you didn't fail to notice that hovering over an acronym in that site will often result in text showing up in the bottom bar of the browser with an expansion
Of course, the ideal resource for learning about genetic disorders would be OMIM

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/omim

The site is absolutely awesome.

[Xamonas Chegwé]

There is an undeniable correlation between incidences of flu jabs and old age in the UK. So the flu jab causes premature aging - ban it now!!1!

On the OP. Yet another reason for people to panic and avoid getting their children vaccinated.

[Ronja]

... Yet another reason for people to panic and avoid getting their children vaccinated.

And for our dear yellow press to publish the frothing at the mouth of outraged parents: "Throw into jail of all government and GSK personnel, who had anything to do with this monster vaccine! They must have known that it is not safe!"

I can understand that the father of a kid who has narcolepsy feels angry, but for a "news"paper to make a 1.5 page major story that presents the above sentiments without *any* other angle, as if what that father said were facts or something...

The summary of the story (in Finnish) is here: http://www.iltalehti.fi/uutiset/2011020 ... 7_uu.shtml and the journalist's POV-post (in Finnish) is here: http://www.iltalehti.fi/uutiset/2011020 ... 2_uu.shtml . It seems that the journalist is framing this whole thing with weasel words and making it look like these kids were harmed *intentionally*, or at least through choices that equal criminal negligence, because "there was big money to be made". Now if she would also explain how the authorities and GSK personnel did know beforehand that genetic and/or environmental factors in Finland, Sweden and Iceland would cause a raised incidence of narcolepsy in children, so that they then could knowingly decide to go ahead with the vaccine anyway...

[GenesForLife]

Journalists must be shot or must undergo corrective treatment by listening to Brian Cox's lecture on Science reporting in the media.

[Ronja]

GFL - and agreed!

[Tero]

I had that vaccine, plus I am Finnish. I am now feeling very tired. Can I have a week off work?

[Sælir]

Ok, I am too tired to read all about it so I´ll just ask. Is it bound to being in the genes of the child? Or is that just a part of the factor?
According to news of cases here in Iceland the chances are a lot higher than 1:200,000

[Svartalf]

What age children? I've had bouts of narcolepsy, ut that has been linked to soul numbing tedium suffered in class or at work rather than to any vaccine

[Xamonas Chegwé]

Has any one suggested any mechanism that might explain how an injection of minute amounts of non-viable viral protein might cause narcolepsy, or even aggravate other risk factors?

All I can see from the articles I have read is that there is a correlation - more prevalent in nordic countries - between the two. No causal link has been proved. I would be inclined to suggest that the vaccine may not be the cause at all, but rather some other factor that tends to overlap with the same populations that received the virus.

[GenesForLife]

Has any one suggested any mechanism that might explain how an injection of minute amounts of non-viable viral protein might cause narcolepsy, or even aggravate other risk factors?

All I can see from the articles I have read is that there is a correlation - more prevalent in nordic countries - between the two. No causal link has been proved. I would be inclined to suggest that the vaccine may not be the cause at all, but rather some other factor that tends to overlap with the same populations that received the virus.

This makes sense, people could very well be committing the "post hoc, ergo procter hoc" fallacy.

[Tero]

The vaccinations need a double blind study. Give the kids flu shots and then swine flu or placebo as separate shot. That way they are protected for normal flu. Then you need the entire Finnish and Swedish youth pool for the study. If there are 20 cases in the placebo group and 30 in the sine flu group, not meaningful. If it is 20 and 60, then you need a mechanistic study of all variables.

[Xamonas Chegwé]

The vaccinations need a double blind study. Give the kids flu shots and then swine flu or placebo as separate shot. That way they are protected for normal flu. Then you need the entire Finnish and Swedish youth pool for the study. If there are 20 cases in the placebo group and 30 in the sine flu group, not meaningful. If it is 20 and 60, then you need a mechanistic study of all variables.

The trouble with that is that there would be thousands of nordic kids that, while they had no way of knowing, were not protected from flu - and some of those would die - a fate claimed by many to be worse than narcolepsy.