Will mankind destroy itself?

[Red Celt]

Well, you're wrong. There's no reason to believe it won't happen next year. You certainly haven't given any proofs, just "I don't like the idea."

According to my calculations, there is a 1 in 100 million chance it will happen next year. I am not gonna lose any sleep over it!

I think you're misunderstanding probabilities. It could happen tomorrow. A future sentient being might add tomorrow's event into their own calculation of probabilities, along with previous events. As Zilla has said, there's nothing special about next year when compared to any other year in the next thousand years... and beyond.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Yep, as I pointed out earlier, nothing is stopping two rocks the size of Texas from hitting us a day apart. Probabilities aren't the law.

[Blind groper]

To Gawdzilla

Certainly.
But even allowing for that, the odds of an extinction event asteroid impact any time in the next 1000 years is still only 1 in 100,000.
If humanity cannot secure its place in the cosmos with off planet colonies by then, there is something very wrong.

If you want to bet on very low probabilities, then you are exactly the kind a guy that the casinos in Las Vegas are waiting for!

[SteveB]

Earth is pretty protected by asteroids due to the massive gravity between the Sun and Jupiter.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

To Gawdzilla

Certainly.
But even allowing for that, the odds of an extinction event asteroid impact any time in the next 1000 years is still only 1 in 100,000.
If humanity cannot secure its place in the cosmos with off planet colonies by then, there is something very wrong.

If you want to bet on very low probabilities, then you are exactly the kind a guy that the casinos in Las Vegas are waiting for!

So you can't rule out any day being the Big Day, none at all. Like tomorrow.

[Red Celt]

Earth is pretty protected by asteroids due to the massive gravity between the Sun and Jupiter.

No, Nibbler. The stats I gave earlier (900 asteroids over 1km in size) are all near-Earth objects. That's objects which share an orbital distance from the sun similar to that of Earth's; nowhere near Jupiter.

[SteveB]

Earth is pretty protected by asteroids due to the massive gravity between the Sun and Jupiter.

No, Nibbler. The stats I gave earlier (900 asteroids over 1km in size) are all near-Earth objects. That's objects which share an orbital distance from the sun similar to that of Earth's; nowhere near Jupiter.

I"m speaking in a more general sense. I didn't read this thread.

Plus, I'm just paraphrasing something I read from Death By Black Hole by Neil DeGrasse Tyson.

[Red Celt]

Earth is pretty protected by asteroids due to the massive gravity between the Sun and Jupiter.

No, Nibbler. The stats I gave earlier (900 asteroids over 1km in size) are all near-Earth objects. That's objects which share an orbital distance from the sun similar to that of Earth's; nowhere near Jupiter.

I"m speaking in a more general sense. I didn't read this thread.

Plus, I'm just paraphrasing something I read from Death By Black Hole by Neil DeGrasse Tyson.

If you're familiar with torrents, take a look at this one. The asteroids episode is in there and you can selectively download one file from within a collective torrent collection.

Or, if you have a proxy service which allows you to watch BBC programmes, take a look at it on the BBC iPlayer site.

[Blind groper]

So you can't rule out any day being the Big Day, none at all. Like tomorrow.

Gawdzilla

If I go out and buy a lotto ticket, I might be a mega millionaire on Sunday. However, the odds against are about 8 million to 1. So I do not buy lotto tickets.

Anything is possible, but I do not bet on ultra low probability events.

On nibbler's comments.
Yes, Jupiter reduces our chances of being hit by various kinds of debris that are barrelling through our solar system. It does this with its greater gravity, sweeping up much of the general crap that otherwise takes long parabolic orbits round the sun. The odds against Earth being hit are made much greater by the benign influence of our Big Brother planet.

Yes, there are asteroids that will be unaffected by Jupiter and could hit the Earth. However, I have already mentioned the odds against them striking Earth any time soon.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

BG, your example doesn't work for the events we're talking about. Prove to me that a rock won't hit us for a hundred years or more.

[Blind groper]

Gawdzilla

I can guarantee that rocks will hit the Earth, many times. Some will have done it while I type this sentence. However, what I am talking of is an asteroid big enough for it to be an extinction event, able to wipe out the human race. As I pointed out, this has happened twice in 200 million years. This makes the probability of it happening some time in the next 1,000 years very low.

So, no. No one can prove such an event will not happen soon, but we can calculate that the odds against that are huge.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Gawdzilla

I can guarantee that rocks will hit the Earth, many times. Some will have done it while I type this sentence. However, what I am talking of is an asteroid big enough for it to be an extinction event, able to wipe out the human race. As I pointed out, this has happened twice in 200 million years. This makes the probability of it happening some time in the next 1,000 years very low.

So, no. No one can prove such an event will not happen soon, but we can calculate that the odds against that are huge.

So we are agreed it could happen tomorrow.

[Blind groper]

Of course it could happen tomorrow, at odds of 36 billion to one against.

There are lots of disasters that could happen tomorrow. Maybe a nearby star went gamma ray burster a few years back, and the lethal radiation will hit us tomorrow. But, like the asteroid, that is of very low probability.

The rational person tries to guard against likely disasters. Ones that are unlikely in the extreme we tend to ignore.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Good night.

[SteveB]

Worried about our catastrophists.

Oh and I don't torrent (not on this computer anyway) and I can't watch that program(me) because I'm not in the UK.