Will mankind destroy itself?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

The reason I say an asteroid wiping out humanity any time in the near future is unlikely is simply the infrequency of such impacts.

The irregular nature of the strikes allows for two to hit the planet with hours of each other, so forecasting the likelihood is impossible.

[Blind groper]

Oh yeah.
Some variation on the Great Flu Epidemic is always possible, with deaths in the millions. But not the same as extinction.

[Blind groper]

The irregular nature of the strikes allows for two to hit the planet with hours of each other, so forecasting the likelihood is impossible.

Gawdzilla.

You know better than that. Certainly we are talking probabilities only, and anything can happen. But we can most definitely state, with a high level of confidence, that an extinction level impact in the next few hundred years, before humanity can set up off-planet self sustaining colonies, is unlikely in the extreme.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Oh yeah.
Some variation on the Great Flu Epidemic is always possible, with deaths in the millions. But not the same as extinction.

Some hearty souls will survive an epidemic, true. Then the moment comes when we see if the survivors can carry on without their amenities. The secondary die-off will be spectacular in its own right.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

The irregular nature of the strikes allows for two to hit the planet with hours of each other, so forecasting the likelihood is impossible.

Gawdzilla.

You know better than that. Certainly we are talking probabilities only, and anything can happen. But we can most definitely state, with a high level of confidence, that an extinction level impact in the next few hundred years, before humanity can set up off-planet self sustaining colonies, is unlikely in the extreme.

I don't that, and neither do you.

[Blind groper]

I don't that, and neither do you.

Ever hear of the mathematical discipline of probability?

Certainly we can make assessments of probability, and be pretty much on the mark. An extinction level impact over the next few hundred years is highly improbable. And yes, I do know that.

it is not certainty, but I am not claiming certainty. Just extreme improbability.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I don't that, and neither do you.

Ever hear of the mathematical discipline of probability?

Certainly we can make assessments of probability, and be pretty much on the mark. An extinction level impact over the next few hundred years is highly improbable. And yes, I do know that.

it is not certainty, but I am not claiming certainty. Just extreme improbability.

Demonstrate, please, because I am calling bullshit with regard to your certainty.

[JacksSmirkingRevenge]

Zombie virus.

Edit - Fast zombie virus.

Edit edit - Airborne fast zombie virus.

[Blind groper]

Demonstrate, please, because I am calling bullshit with regard to your certainty.

It is not certainty. it is extreme improbability.

I have already demonstrated why this is so. The last such event was 65 million years ago.
We know that the amount of loose debris in the solar system has been getting less over astronomical time (mainly mopped up by Big Brother Jupiter). From the craters on the moon, we have discovered that impacts were way more common a few billion years ago, and have been becoming less frequent over time. The last two devastating, and extinction level impacts on Earth were 65 million and 200 million years ago. So when I say the odds of another such impact in the next few hundred years are very low, I have already shown the reason.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Oh, then you have no reason to be confident. I thought so.

[Blind groper]

Nothing in this universe is 100% certain.

If I look at the way the Earth rotates, and causes the sun to appear to rise in the east each morning, I can make a prediction that the sun will appear to rise in the east tomorrow morning. There is no guarantee, and there is, perhaps, one chance in a quadrillion that something will happen to prevent that. But I am willing to assume that 1 in a quadrillion chance is sufficiently unlikely.

On an asteroid hitting the Earth with extinction effect.

It has happened twice in 200 million years. Assume that it averages once each 100,000,000 years. What are the odds of it happening some time in the next 1,000 years? The odds are 99,999 in 100,000 against. This is enough to give me a level of confidence. Not 100% certainty, but the odds are low enough to give me confidence, and I believe that is a very rational conclusion.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Well, you're wrong. There's no reason to believe it won't happen next year. You certainly haven't given any proofs, just "I don't like the idea."

[Tero]

Mankind will soil itself.


those are Elvis's

[Blind groper]

Well, you're wrong. There's no reason to believe it won't happen next year. You certainly haven't given any proofs, just "I don't like the idea."

According to my calculations, there is a 1 in 100 million chance it will happen next year. I am not gonna lose any sleep over it!

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Well, you're wrong. There's no reason to believe it won't happen next year. You certainly haven't given any proofs, just "I don't like the idea."

According to my calculations, there is a 1 in 100 million chance it will happen next year. I am not gonna lose any sleep over it!

But there's the same chance for every year. Next year isn't anything special.