We are alone in the Universe, unless we guess otherwise.

[rainbow]

The 10 litre flask and million years scenario is actually from experiments done in laboratories to create life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller%E2 ... experiment
https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet ... ns-of-life I was already too generous with the time it would take (a million years), so the trillion2 period that you suggest is truly exorbitant.

...except that they didn't create life.

Experiment failed so no extrapolation to a million years is possible. Might as well be 1000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 years, assuming some clumsy lab assistant didn't drop the flask at some point.

[Hermit]

So Galaxian set him straight: "Life developed within a few hours of any wet tract of Earth reaching a temperature of 10 to 40 degrees Celcius." And that was a conservative assessment, since my calculations had actually shown a few seconds! The reason is that biology is a concomitant of chemistry, and if it takes a million years for an experiment in a 10 litre flask to produce life, a volume of 100km x 100km x 20m deep would only take 1.6 seconds to do so. If you allow for some mixing of necessary chemicals, a few hours is generous.

Yes, but if it takes a trillionty trillion years to produce life in a 10l flask, then it would take 50 billion years.
...since the Earth is only 5 billion years old, life has not yet emerged, never mind intelligent life.

Which proves by your logic that you don't exist

Um, excuse me, but Glaxative will provide empirical, irrefutable evidence, if necessary, that life developed within a few hours of any wet tract of Earth reaching a temperature of 10 to 40 degrees Celcius (sic).

As for me, I have a very similar hypothesis. Two years ago the Porsche 919 Hybrid EVO recorded a lap time of the Nürburgring's not quite 21 kilometre long Nordschleife in five minutes and 19.545 seconds. Had the Nordschleife been as long as all currently existing roads on this planet combined, the Porsche would have finished the lap two days, four hours, three minutes and 37.917 seconds before it took off at the start line. Had the Nordschleife been as long as the distance between Sol and Alpha Centauri, the car would have crossed the finish line before the circuit was even built.

[Seabass]

[Brian Peacock]

It's all done with CGI.

#FAKELAP

[LucidFlight]

Yeah, it's probably not even a real car.

I don't know why, but that initial sweeping left-hander around Metzgesfeld always terrifies me.

[laklak]

Therefore, make peace with your god,
Whatever you perceive him to be - hairy thunderer, or cosmic muffin.
With all its hopes, dreams, promises, and urban renewal,
The world continues to deteriorate.
Give up!
You are a fluke of the universe.
You have no right to be here.
And whether you can hear it or not,
The universe is laughing behind your back.

- Deteriorata

[Woodbutcher]

Therefore, make peace with your god,
Whatever you perceive him to be - hairy thunderer, or cosmic muffin.
With all its hopes, dreams, promises, and urban renewal,
The world continues to deteriorate.
Give up!
You are a fluke of the universe.
You have no right to be here.
And whether you can hear it or not,
The universe is laughing behind your back.

- Deteriorata

I had that poster in my room in the 70s!

[Hermit]

It's all done with CGI.

#FAKELAP

Topped out at 369km/hr along the Döttinger Höhe straight (4:59). If that were possible, Glaxative would have said so by now. He knows everything that's possible, especially stuff we mistakenly regard as impossible.

[JimC]

Well, it is hard for sheeple to know stuff...

[rainbow]

Therefore, make peace with your god,
Whatever you perceive him to be - hairy thunderer, or cosmic muffin.
With all its hopes, dreams, promises, and urban renewal,
The world continues to deteriorate.
Give up!
You are a fluke of the universe.
You have no right to be here.
And whether you can hear it or not,
The universe is laughing behind your back.

- Deteriorata

Noodle

[Brian Peacock]

New Calculations Hint There Could Be at Least 36 Alien Civilisations in Our Galaxy

The fact of human existence is evidence that technologically advanced life is possible in the Universe, yet all our searches for other civilisations have turned up exactly nothing. Since Earth harbours the only proof of life we have, it's difficult to know just how common - or rare - it is.

A new method for estimating the likelihood of life arising beyond Earth gives reason for hope, though. According to the parameters used, there should be at least 36 advanced civilisations capable of broadcasting communication signals in the Milky Way galaxy, although the number could be even higher.

"There should be at least a few dozen active civilisations in our galaxy under the assumption that it takes 5 billion years for intelligent life to form on other planets, as on Earth," explained astrophysicist Christopher Conselice from the University of Nottingham in the UK.

"The idea is looking at evolution, but on a cosmic scale. We call this calculation the Astrobiological Copernican Limit."

There are several parameters that can be used to estimate the number of intelligent civilisations in the galaxy. Conselice and his colleague, engineer Tom Westby, developed a scale of calculations, based on the number of parameters they included.

For the very weakest Astrobiological Copernican Limit, the team assumed that intelligent life arises wherever possible - on rocky planets in the habitable zones of host stars of sufficient age and metallicity - and persists for the entire life of the star.

For the other three limits, timeframes were set for when advanced civilisations could have emerged, based on Earth. It took around 4.5 billion years for advanced technological civilisation to spring up here; the first radio signal was only transmitted in 1895.

So, for the strongest Astrobiological Copernican Limit, the parameters included a star with Sun-like metallicity, and an age of between 4.5 billion years and 5.5 billion years. Assuming that the lifespan of a communicating civilisation is around 100 years (roughly how long humans have been transmitting signals), the lower limit on the number of civilisations is 36...

https://www.sciencealert.com/new-calcul ... our-galaxy

[NineBerry]

Calculations...

[pErvinalia]

Yeah. They may as well have rounded up to 42. Makes about as much sense.

[JimC]

It's not the final figure that is particularly vital, but the range of possible assumptions in various scenarios are interesting. They do seem to be assuming that once life arises, intelligent life is a certainty. Many consider the evolution of intelligence to be somewhat of a fluke...

[Woodbutcher]

It's not the final figure that is particularly vital, but the range of possible assumptions in various scenarios are interesting. They do seem to be assuming that once life arises, intelligent life is a certainty. Many consider the evolution of intelligence to be somewhat of a fluke...

We're not there yet.