Hermit wrote:JimC wrote:Well, basically I agree that the net result was a bad one, with the proviso that it may have been difficult at the time to predict the mess that would follow. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but...
It was predicted by the CIA no less, two months before the war in a 40 page report. President Bush read it, and it was widely circulated in his administration. He just ignored it for reasons best known to himself. Don't mention Halliburton.
And is Halliburton pumping free oil out of Iraq at the moment...or ever?
... the CIA warned the administration of the risk and consequences of a conflict in the Middle East.
Among other things, the 40-page Senate report reveals that two intelligence assessments before the war accurately predicted that toppling Saddam could lead to a dangerous period of internal violence and provide a boost to terrorists. But those warnings were seemingly ignored.
In January 2003, two months before the invasion, the intelligence community's think tank — the National Intelligence Council — issued an assessment warning that after Saddam was toppled, there was “a significant chance that domestic groups would engage in violent conflict with each other and that rogue Saddam loyalists would wage guerilla warfare either by themselves or in alliance with terrorists.”
It also warned that “many angry young recruits” would fuel the rank of Islamic extremists and "Iraqi political culture is so embued with mores (opposed) to the democratic experience … that it may resist the most rigorous and prolonged democratic tutorials."
The CIA repeated in a follow up report a few weeks before the war that the war also could be "exploited by terrorists and extremists outside Iraq."
There were even earlier warnings. One of them was a briefing book titled 'The Perfect Storm: Planning for the Negative Consequences of Invading Iraq', Delivered in September 2002, it included the following prognosis by the CIA:
The United States will face negative consequences with Iraq, the region and beyond which would include:
- Anarchy and the territorial breakup of Iraq;
Region-threatening instability in key Arab states;
A surge of global terrorism against US interests fueled by (militant) Islamism;
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Link)
And all of that emanated despite Wolfowitz's best efforts to plug such information emanating from the CIA. He need not have bothered. The chickenhawks had oil fever. Nothing would stop them from getting at that black gold.[/quote]
And did they manage to do so? Nope. It's silly to assert that Bush and Co. went after Saddam to get at the "black gold" because nothing of the sort actually happened and Iraqi oil has been embargoed for a long, long time. If it was about the oil we would have left Saddam in power.
It wasn't, it was about Saddam's violations of the cease fire agreement. Everything else is simply a side issue.
Besides, if we're going to go all hypothetical it's probable that Saddam would have eventually been deposed by the Islamic fundamentalists anyway, after a protracted chemical and possibly biological and nuclear war between Iraq and Iran, who, in case you've forgotten, have been at each other's throats for a very, very long time. The desert between the two is littered with the bones of those sent to fight that conflict. So much so that the Ayatolla Kohmeni (however the fuck you spell it) sent out a directive that people were not supposed to wipe their asses "with the bones of martyrs," but rather should use a smooth stone or pebble.
Nobody gave a fuck about deposing Saddam until he invaded Kuwait, at which point we were OBLIGATED to defend Kuwait, which is exactly why Bush the Elder stopped short of leveling Baghdad and killing Saddam the first time around. Bush I stopped when the Iraqi army was defeated because that was what he felt was the limit of his mandate to protect Kuwait was. In retrospect he should have completed the job at that time, but as ought to be obvious, hindsight is always 20/20.
Then Saddam didn't play nice so we had to go back in and spank him in 2003. That's just how it went and it's all Saddam's fault.
What's happened since then is not at all relevant because we did what we needed to do at the time. The consequences are the consequences and now we deal with them. That's how international geopolitics works.
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