Will mankind destroy itself?

[Blind groper]

Absolutely certain of that, are we?

As I am am sure you are aware, there is nothing in this universe that is absolutely certain. I am basing those comments on history. To the best of my knowledge, the most devastating epidemic ever to hit the western world was Yersinia pestis, and it killed 'only' a third of the people in the most affected areas, at a time when there was no medical knowledge to combat it. Bearing that in mind, I cannot see a natural pestilence having an even greater effect in this world of advanced medicine.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Absolutely certain of that, are we?

As I am am sure you are aware, there is nothing in this universe that is absolutely certain. I am basing those comments on history. To the best of my knowledge, the most devastating epidemic ever to hit the western world was Yersinia pestis, and it killed 'only' a third of the people in the most affected areas, at a time when there was no medical knowledge to combat it. Bearing that in mind, I cannot see a natural pestilence having an even greater effect in this world of advanced medicine.

I would counsel against over-confidence.

[Blind groper]

I would counsel against over-confidence.

As I said, a pestilence of sufficient magnitude might be possible if carried out maliciously by a major power. I doubt anything less would do it, though. To kill every African, Inuit, East Indian, Polynesian, European etc., in spite of medical efforts....

Well, that is something else, and IMHO, extremely unlikely.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

As unlike as a big rock falling from the sky and killing damn near everything on the planet?

[Blind groper]

The last time that happened, Gawdzilla, was 65 million years ago. I am not going to lose any sleep over the chance of it happening again any time soon. I think humanity will be safely spread out in off-Earth locations well before that.

A natural plague destroying humanity would be, in my opinion, of the same level of improbability.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

The last time that happened, Gawdzilla, was 65 million years ago. I am not going to lose any sleep over the chance of it happening again any time soon. I think humanity will be safely spread out in off-Earth locations well before that.

A natural plague destroying humanity would be, in my opinion, of the same level of improbability.

You agree it's not impossible then.

[Blind groper]

Not impossible, but very low probability.

Read Douglas Adams about the infinite improbability generator.

[Tero]

The last time that happened, Gawdzilla, was 65 million years ago. I am not going to lose any sleep over the chance of it happening again any time soon. I think humanity will ....

Yea! 65 million years to party!

[Atheist-Lite]

Once the population decline gets underway there is likely to be 'memetic drift' for want of a better expression that will make foolhardy strategies normal for surviving pockets. Imagine a winning hand turning to a losing one in a card game....risks are not conserved as chances vanish away. I can imagine small pockets of survivors dying out rather quickly. The entire species going extinct by folly...it happened to neanderthals and other advanced forms of great ape with some regularity. Humans are not special, they had a lucky break with oil/coal but the easy to retrieve stuff is gone and that leaves only trees.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

The last time that happened, Gawdzilla, was 65 million years ago. I am not going to lose any sleep over the chance of it happening again any time soon. I think humanity will ....

Yea! 65 million years to party!

Actually, we're due.

[Tero]

Plus or minus a million. I'll be an optimist this time.

[Blind groper]

Humans are not special, they had a lucky break with oil/coal but the easy to retrieve stuff is gone and that leaves only trees.

You under-estimate your own species. While most of us Homer saps are idiots, there is a good leavening of geniuses. If one person in a million is a super-genius, that means we have 7,000 super geniuses.

On oil and coal - that is just the energy source we are using right now. When that is gone, there are other sources. China and India right now have experimental pilot nuclear reactors using thorium metal for energy. There is so much thorium in the world (about as common as lead) that it can provide humanity with ten times our current electricity needs for the next thousand years. Beyond that, there is the possibility of deuterium based nuclear fusion. There is so much deuterium in the world's oceans that, at ten times current electricity use, it would last 100 million years.

And that is not even taking into account all the wind, hydroelectric, tide, geothermal, solar and biomass energy we might generate.

[Rum]

Yep. There is absolutely gobs of energy to harvest. Economics will determine how we do it, but I am sure we will.

[mistermack]

Uhm... viruses aren't conscious and they don't know the "success rate" of their ancestors.

Therefore, 100% effectivity is possible and not certainly isn't "programmed out".

If a virus evolves that is 100% lethal, it's going to be extinct in a very short time.
It's genes will not be passed on. What is left, is a world full of LESS lethal viruses, which are passing on their genes.

A really lethal virus is usually one that jumps from one species to another. It's less lethal in it's usual host, but much more lethal to it's new host.
But after 4,000,000,000 years of evolution, most species have encountered the ancestors of most viruses, probably millions of times. There's nothing totally new out there, just new slight variations. So it's very unlikely that any virus is going to be both highly contagious and highly lethal. There will be resistance inherited in the gene pool, so that some individuals will survive.

That's not to say it won't happen. It's just my speculation as to why it isn't happening more often.

[Red Celt]

If a virus evolves that is 100% lethal, it's going to be extinct in a very short time.
It's genes will not be passed on. What is left, is a world full of LESS lethal viruses, which are passing on their genes.

So, its genes won't be passed on, so it will have become a genetic failure. In the meantime... no humans.