Will mankind destroy itself?

[JimC]

In the year 2525, if man is still alive
If woman can survive, they may find
In the year 3535

Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie
Everything you think, do and say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545
You ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to chew
Nobody's gonna look at you

In the year 5555
Your arms hangin' limp at your sides
Your legs got nothin' to do
Some machine's doin' that for you

In the year 6565
You won't need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube

In the year 7510
If God's a-coming, He oughta make it by then
Maybe He'll look around Himself and say
"Guess it's time for the Judgement Day"

In the year 8510
God is gonna shake His mighty head
He'll either say, "I'm pleased where man has been"
Or tear it down, and start again

In the year 9595
I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive
He's taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing

Now it's been ten thousand years, man has cried a billion tears
For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through
But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight
So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday

[Gawdzilla Sama]

But there will be a long period of grunting savages surrounding small pockets of "civilization" I think. Thousands of years, perhaps.

We're in that bit now.

The Earth Abides should be mandatory reading in schools.

[Coito ergo sum]

All mass entictions are caused by external events. We will go only when all the mammals go.

Rabbits did not disappear from Australia even when a virus was introduced.

The dinosaurs went extinct because they didn't have a space program.

[mistermack]

Extinctions generally happen when creatures get too specialised. Then the environment changes, and their specialisation is a hinderance.

Humans are going the opposite way. We are specialising in EVERYTHING and changing our environment to suit us.
There aren't enough nukes to kill everybody, so that won't destroy mankind.

Biological warfare has the greatest potential to kill us all off. That's our weakness, the way we live together, and
fly all around the world, spreading germs worldwide. But that could be stopped, in the face of a lethal epidemic.

Once man learns to live in space, and manufacture things in space, independent of the Earth, it's hard to imagine ANYTHING that could wipe us all out.

[JacksSmirkingRevenge]

[Red Celt]

In the year 2525, if man is still alive
If woman can survive, they may find
In the year 3535

Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie
Everything you think, do and say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545
You ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to chew
Nobody's gonna look at you

In the year 5555
Your arms hangin' limp at your sides
Your legs got nothin' to do
Some machine's doin' that for you

In the year 6565
You won't need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube

In the year 7510
If God's a-coming, He oughta make it by then
Maybe He'll look around Himself and say
"Guess it's time for the Judgement Day"

In the year 8510
God is gonna shake His mighty head
He'll either say, "I'm pleased where man has been"
Or tear it down, and start again

In the year 9595
I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive
He's taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing

Now it's been ten thousand years, man has cried a billion tears
For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through
But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight
So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday

Sadly, I possessed a copy of that song (chart compilation vinyl) when I was a kid (a hand-me-down from my older brother). In part, it might explain why I grew up to be such a dour bastard...

Then again, I also had a copy of this... so perhaps things balanced out.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Worst joke on ST:NG.

[JimC]

But there will be a long period of grunting savages surrounding small pockets of "civilization" I think. Thousands of years, perhaps.

We're in that bit now.

The Earth Abides should be mandatory reading in schools.

Excellent book...

[orpheus]

Biological warfare has the greatest potential to kill us all off. That's our weakness, the way we live together, and
fly all around the world, spreading germs worldwide. But that could be stopped, in the face of a lethal epidemic.

In theory, perhaps. But we've not prepared ourselves for that at all. Let's say such a biological agent is released tomorrow. Or even if we leave out warfare: let's imagine a killer virus jumps species tomorrow and makes it into the human population. Within weeks it could be worldwide. My point is that we do not, currently, have contingency plans to stop our travel and still maintain the things necessary for life (eg, food delivery).

Once man learns to live in space, and manufacture things in space, independent of the Earth, it's hard to imagine ANYTHING that could wipe us all out.

Yeah, that is our best bet.

[mistermack]

In theory, perhaps. But we've not prepared ourselves for that at all. Let's say such a biological agent is released tomorrow. Or even if we leave out warfare: let's imagine a killer virus jumps species tomorrow and makes it into the human population.

I wondered about that.
A really lethal virus could reduce the human population to a tiny number, but it's unlikely to finish off humans entirely.
Some will have chance immunity. Especially if it's a natural virus, as we will probably have encountered the ancestor of the virus before, and some survived, leaving resistant genes out there in the population.

Also, I think the bigger countries probably DO have plans for some people to live in Isolation, to survive major catastrophies.
Russia, USA and China probably have bunkers to be used in extreme cases, to survive nuclear war, or asteroid strike, or a major killer virus.

I'm only guessing, but they wouldn't tell you if there was, so we'll never know.

[orpheus]

It is a scary topic. Did you ever see the movie Contagion? It's about the outbreak of a deadly virus that quickly spreads worldwide. I first thought it was a typical Hollywood disaster movie full of scientific inaccuracies. It seemed so exaggerated and so over-the-top. But supposedly it was pretty accurate (Carl Zimmer and other scientists praised it) - not only in terms of the science, but also in terms of how people and governments would respond. (It also has a subplot about how the Alternative Medicine community responds.) Worth watching. And if it's even halfway accurate, it's pretty terrifying.

[mistermack]

No I haven't seen it. But I do agree it's by far the biggest potential threat, that could wipe out the human race.

I'm only guessing that governments might have plans for people to survive such a devastating outbreak by using isolation modules. But if it did come to that, it would still have been incredibly devastating, even if a small number survived it.

I do think it's a real possibility, and so do governments, as they do have systems in place to TRY to combat new viruses.
But they don't fill you with confidence. I'm surprised that something hasn't happened already, what with air travel to all corners of the earth.

Maybe viruses have evolved NOT to be deadly to all. After all, they too have had billions of years of evolution, and the ones that WERE capable of wiping out entire populations have probably died out, with the hosts that they killed off.

What's left might be programmed to be less than 100 percent lethal, when they spread to a new species.
Even the most lethal swine flus and avian flus were only about fifty percent lethal, or less, to humans.
And they might evolve rapidly inside the human population to be even less lethal.

[Blind groper]

The only way that a disease might arise capable of wiping out humanity is if it is designed by biological warfare people, and then deliberately spread. No natural bug will be virulent enough. Nor would a synthetic virus be enough if permitted to spread without help. However, a large nation with sophisticated methods of spreading it might succeed. I doubt it, though. The only groups insane enough to do this would lack the resources.

Humanity needs a few hundred years to get self sufficient colonies off Earth. Maybe on Mars, or in large space cities. Once that happens, we will be less vulnerable. Stephen Hawking stated that to be the top priority for our species.

[Red Celt]

Uhm... viruses aren't conscious and they don't know the "success rate" of their ancestors.

Therefore, 100% effectivity is possible and not certainly isn't "programmed out".

It is also perfectly possible for such a strain to arise without artificial assistance in a lab. Several strains have already managed this, prior to the effective globalisation of the human race. If every airport were to close down, another such outbreak could be geographically contained (as with previous epidemics) but... otherwise... you'd better believe that a genetic mutation or two really is capable of spreading worldwide doom and gloom.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

The only way that a disease might arise capable of wiping out humanity is if it is designed by biological warfare people, and then deliberately spread. No natural bug will be virulent enough. Nor would a synthetic virus be enough if permitted to spread without help. However, a large nation with sophisticated methods of spreading it might succeed. I doubt it, though. The only groups insane enough to do this would lack the resources.

Absolutely certain of that, are we?