Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Deathly Pale Skies A Price Worth Paying?

Deathly Pale Skies A Price Worth Paying
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11%
Let The Planet Burn
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I Just Bought A Brand New DSLR, Shucks!!!
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Total votes: 9

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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by mistermack » Fri Jun 08, 2012 8:25 pm

macdoc wrote:
But that's only because the south is sinking, due to the melting from the last ice-age.
only because???? :funny: :funny:

some have their heads firmly ensconced in a dark and odorous place....let's look at the article :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthn ... study.html

Funny the authors don't seem to share your "only" view.....perhaps they are cognizant of reality. :coffee:
I didn't quote that article, or even make a reference to it, so it's not relevant to what I said.
England will sink a tiny amount, as I said, due to ongoing movement because of the melting from the ice-age.
The rest is pure speculation, from scientists who have never yet successfully predicted the climate, or sea levels.

You might gobble up speculation as gospel. I want to see proper evidence.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by Woodbutcher » Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:43 am

mistermack wrote:
macdoc wrote:
But that's only because the south is sinking, due to the melting from the last ice-age.
only because???? :funny: :funny:

some have their heads firmly ensconced in a dark and odorous place....let's look at the article :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthn ... study.html

Funny the authors don't seem to share your "only" view.....perhaps they are cognizant of reality. :coffee:
I didn't quote that article, or even make a reference to it, so it's not relevant to what I said.
England will sink a tiny amount, as I said, due to ongoing movement because of the melting from the ice-age.
The rest is pure speculation, from scientists who have never yet successfully predicted the climate, or sea levels.

You might gobble up speculation as gospel. I want to see proper evidence.
You don't have to believe in climate change. It will still be a fact. Only Republicans and fundies in the US deny it now because they refuse to look at the facts, instead relying on anecdotal evidence. If 15000 climate professionals agree on something, I tend to find it reasonable that there is some truth to their position. Would you direct me to some peer-reviewed, scientific papers on climate change that has no anthropological component. Bet you cant!
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by macdoc » Sat Jun 09, 2012 1:09 am

. I want to see proper evidence.
:funny: :funny: pathetic hardly covers it ....you got evolution down pat yet... :coffee:

••••
Would you direct me to some peer-reviewed, scientific papers on climate change that has no anthropological component.
Nitpicking a bit - there are lots of peer reviewed papers on paleo-climate change including that of the Siberian traps with no anthro component - what they do is simply establish the reality of injecting high amounts of carbon into the atmosphere results in temperature rise and in that case the Permian extinction.
We are now injecting fossil carbon at a more rapid rate than then.
To point where it's been 10-15 millions years since it has been this high.

For the edification of the scientifically illiterate as far as climate change goes...notably our "show me the evidence" head in the sander above
Pre-dinosaur extinction killed 95% of sea species
Posted on EPOCA: 02 May 2012 -- By Alanna Mitchell THE NEW YORK TIMES

Healthy branching and soft corals. Painstaking analyses by researchers of fossils from the Permian extinction, which killed off about 95 percent or marine species 252 million years ago, is providing startling new clues to the behavior of modern marine lif

It may never be as well known as the Cretaceous extinction, the one that killed off the dinosaurs. Yet the much earlier Permian extinction - 252 million years ago - was by far the most catastrophic of the planet's five known paroxysms of species loss.

No wonder it is called the Great Dying: Scientists calculate that about 95 percent of marine species, and an uncountable but probably comparable percentage of land species, went extinct in a geological heartbeat.

The cause or causes of the Permian extinction remain a mystery. Among the hypotheses are a devastating asteroid strike, as in the Cretaceous extinction; a catastrophic volcanic eruption; and a welling-up of oxygen-depleted water from the depths of the oceans.

Now, painstaking analyses of fossils from the period point to a different way to think about the problem. And at the same time, they are providing startling new clues to the behavior of modern marine life and its future.

In two recent papers, scientists from Stanford and the University of California, Santa Cruz, adopted a cellular approach to what they called the "killing mechanism": not what might have happened to the entire planet, but what happened within the cells of the animals to finish them off.

Their study of nearly 50,000 marine invertebrate fossils in 8,900 collections from the Permian period has allowed them to peer into the inner workings of the ancient creatures, giving them the ability to describe precisely how some died while others lived.

''Before, scientists were all over the map," said one of the authors, Matthew E. Clapham, an earth scientist at Santa Cruz. "We thought maybe lots of things were going on."

Clapham and his co-author, Jonathan L. Payne, a Stanford geochemist, concluded that animals with skeletons or shells made of calcium carbonate, or limestone, were more likely to die than those with skeletons of other substances. And animals that had few ways of protecting their internal chemistry were more apt to disappear.

Being widely dispersed across the planet was little protection against extinction, and neither was being numerous. The deaths happened throughout the ocean. Nor was there any correlation between extinction and how a creature moved or what it ate.

Instead, the authors concluded, the animals died from a lack of dissolved oxygen in the water, an excess of carbon dioxide, a reduced ability to make shells from calcium carbonate, altered ocean acidity and higher water temperatures. They also concluded that all these stresses happened rapidly and that each one amplified the effects of the others.

That led to a wholesale change in the ocean's dominant animals within just 200,000 years, or perhaps much less, Clapham said.

Among the hardest hit were corals; many types, including the horn-shaped bottom-dwellers known as rugose corals, disappeared altogether. Sea sponges were also devastated, along with the shelled creatures that commanded the Permian reefs and sea. Every single species of the once common trilobites, with their helmetlike front shells, vanished for good.

No major group of marine invertebrates or protists, a group of mainly one-celled microorganisms, went unscathed. Instead, gastropods like snails and bivalves like clams and scallops became the dominant creatures after the Permian. And that shift led directly to the assemblage of life in today's oceans. "Modern marine ecology is shaped by the extinction spasms of the past," Clapham said.

So what happened 252 million years ago to cause those physiological stresses in marine animals? Additional clues from carbon, calcium and nitrogen isotopes of the period, as well as from organic geochemistry, suggest a "perturbation of the global carbon cycle," the scientists' second paper concluded - a huge infusion of carbon into the atmosphere and the ocean.

But neither an asteroid strike nor an upwelling of oxygen-deprived deep-ocean water would explain the selective pattern of death.

Instead, the scientists suspect that the answer lies in the biggest volcanic event of the past 500 million years - the eruptions that formed the Siberian Traps, the stairlike hilly region in northern Russia. The eruptions sent catastrophic amounts of carbon gas into the atmosphere and, ultimately, the oceans; that led to long-term ocean acidification, ocean warming and vast areas of oxygen-poor ocean water.

The surprise to Clapham was how closely the findings from the Great Dying matched today's trends in ocean chemistry. High concentrations of carbon-based gases in the atmosphere are leading to warming, rapid acidification and low-oxygen dead zones in the oceans.

The idea that changes in ocean chemistry, particularly acidification, could be a factor in a mass extinction is a relatively new idea, said Andrew H. Knoll, a Harvard geologist who wrote a seminal paper in 1996 exploring the consequences of a rapid increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere on the physiology of organisms.

''In terms of the overall pattern of change, what we're seeing now and what is predicted in the next two centuries is riding a parallel track to what we think happened in the past," he said.

Clapham noted that Permian and modern similarities are not exact. The Permian ocean was easier to acidify than today's ocean because it had less deep-water calcium carbonate, which offsets the acid. But he said that corals are the most vulnerable creatures in the modern ocean for the same reason they were during the Permian extinction. They have little ability to govern their internal chemistry and they rely on calcium carbonate to build their reefs.

Chris Langdon, a University of Miami biologist who is a pioneer in ocean acidification research, said corals are undoubtedly in danger across the globe.

''Corals, I think, are going to take it on the chin," he said.

In a recent study, Langdon examined the effects of naturally high acidification on coral reefs in Papua New Guinea. They showed drastic declines in coral cover at acidity levels likely to be present in the ocean by the end of this century, especially among branching corals that shelter fish.

Hans Portner, an animal ecophysiologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany, said his work showed that a warmer ocean with less dissolved oxygen and greater acidity had an array of negative physiological effects on modern marine animals.

The Permian extinction provides an archive of effects suggesting how modern marine creatures will fare as the carbon load in the atmosphere incr eases, he said.

Like Clapham, he cautioned that the trends between the two periods were not exactly comparable. Back in the Permian, the planet had a single supercontinent, Pangea, and ocean currents were different.

And he and Langdon noted that carbon was being injected into the atmosphere today far faster than during the Permian extinction. As Knoll put it, "Today, humans turn out to be every bit as good as volcanoes at putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."
These changes are here and now.....not some distant future.

http://daniellemeitiv.com/2009/08/12/oc ... -near-you/

The evidence is easy..rather glaring....perhaps our denier could explain why the fossil fuel companies own scientists confirmed in the 90s.

Industry Ignored Its Scientists on Climate - NYTimes.com
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/scien ... .html?_r=2

Here's what the fossil companies said
The role of greenhouse gases in climate change is not well understood,” the coalition said in a scientific “backgrounder” provided to lawmakers and journalists through the early 1990s, adding that “scientists differ” on the issue.
Here's what their own scientists told them
But a document filed in a federal lawsuit demonstrates that even as the coalition worked to sway opinion, its own scientific and technical experts were advising that the science backing the role of greenhouse gases in global warming could not be refuted.

“The scientific basis for the Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and cannot be denied,” the experts wrote in an internal report compiled for the coalition in 1995.
The problem is not the reality of AGW

The real problem is what to do about it......burying your head in the sand is NOT a valid solution. :coffee:
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by mistermack » Sat Jun 09, 2012 7:23 pm

Woodbutcher wrote:
mistermack wrote: You might gobble up speculation as gospel. I want to see proper evidence.
You don't have to believe in climate change. It will still be a fact. Only Republicans and fundies in the US deny it now because they refuse to look at the facts, instead relying on anecdotal evidence. If 15000 climate professionals agree on something, I tend to find it reasonable that there is some truth to their position. Would you direct me to some peer-reviewed, scientific papers on climate change that has no anthropological component. Bet you cant!
I have news for you. The climate is ALWAYS changing. It's been constantly changing for billions of years.
Humans have only been emitting CO2 in any great quantity for fifty years.
So the climate has ALWAYS been changing without our help.
If you don't understand that, you need more than a link from me.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by mistermack » Sat Jun 09, 2012 7:38 pm

And he and Langdon noted that carbon was being injected into the atmosphere today far faster than during the Permian extinction. As Knoll put it, "Today, humans turn out to be every bit as good as volcanoes at putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."
As I pointed out before, from the article that you linked yourself, the permian CO2 emissions were over an estimated 20,000 year period.

Yes, if we keep producing the CO2 for thousands of years, the climate could well be affected.
FIFTY years does not compare in ANY WAY to the permian extinction event.

And it's not established that CO2 was the problem, anyway. It's a likely candidate, but not established beyond doubt by any means.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by Atheist-Lite » Sat Jun 09, 2012 7:52 pm

mistermack wrote:
And he and Langdon noted that carbon was being injected into the atmosphere today far faster than during the Permian extinction. As Knoll put it, "Today, humans turn out to be every bit as good as volcanoes at putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."
As I pointed out before, from the article that you linked yourself, the permian CO2 emissions were over an estimated 20,000 year period.

Yes, if we keep producing the CO2 for thousands of years, the climate could well be affected.
FIFTY years does not compare in ANY WAY to the permian extinction event.

And it's not established that CO2 was the problem, anyway. It's a likely candidate, but not established beyond doubt by any means.
I've tried to think about this being more akin to a shock loading on the climate. I don't know if it is possible to model what will happen with this but I recall shock loadings on complex systems are not very good. If anyone as noticed on Mars most of the water drifted to one pole and the CO2 drifted to the other. This could happen here in the extreme, as well as going the way of Venus. Then it could all calm down following a human population crash although I doubt it would calm down much myself. :smoke:
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by mistermack » Sat Jun 09, 2012 8:45 pm

Crumple wrote: I've tried to think about this being more akin to a shock loading on the climate. I don't know if it is possible to model what will happen with this but I recall shock loadings on complex systems are not very good. If anyone as noticed on Mars most of the water drifted to one pole and the CO2 drifted to the other. This could happen here in the extreme, as well as going the way of Venus. Then it could all calm down following a human population crash although I doubt it would calm down much myself. :smoke:
Bit of difference between Mars and Venus. We have more chance of going in the direction of Mars than Venus though, as we are due an ice-age glaciation event any time now.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by macdoc » Sat Jun 09, 2012 9:16 pm

Wow the level of ignorance is astounding.....
You blather on without a shred of support for your nonsense. On the other hand people who know what they are talking about say you are wrong....and why.

Next Ice Age Delayed For Thousands Of Years Warn Scientists
by Staff Writers
Gainesville, FL (SPX) Jan 09, 2012

That may sound like good news, but it probably isn't, said Jim Channell, distinguished professor of geology at UF and co-author. "Ice sheets like those in western Antarctica are already destabilized by global warming," said Channell. "When they eventually slough off and become a part of the ocean's volume, it will have a dramatic effect on sea level." Ice sheets will continue to melt until the next phase of cooling begins in earnest.
Unprecedented levels of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are disrupting normal patterns of glaciation, according to a study co-authored by a University of Florida researcher and published online Jan. 8 in Nature Geoscience.

The Earth's current warm period that began about 11,000 years ago should give way to another ice age within about 1,500 years, according to accepted astronomical models.

However, current levels of carbon dioxide are trapping too much heat in the atmosphere to allow the Earth to cool as it has in its prehistoric past in response to changes in Earth's orbital pattern. The research team, a collaboration among University College London, University of Cambridge and UF, said their data indicate that the next ice age will likely be delayed by tens of thousands of years.

That may sound like good news, but it probably isn't, said Jim Channell, distinguished professor of geology at UF and co-author.

"Ice sheets like those in western Antarctica are already destabilized by global warming," said Channell. "When they eventually slough off and become a part of the ocean's volume, it will have a dramatic effect on sea level." Ice sheets will continue to melt until the next phase of cooling begins in earnest.

The study looks at the prehistoric climate-change drivers of the past to project the onset of the next ice age. Using astronomical models that show Earth's orbital pattern with all of its fluctuations and wobbles over the last several million years, astronomers can calculate the amount of solar heat that has reached the Earth's atmosphere during past glacial and interglacial periods.

"We know from past records that Earth's orbital characteristics during our present interglacial period are a dead ringer for orbital characteristics in an interglacial period 780,000 years ago," said Channell. The pattern suggests that our current period of warmth should be ending within about 1,500 years.

However, there is a much higher concentration of greenhouse gases trapping the sun's heat in the Earth's atmosphere now than there was in at least the last several million years, he said. So the cooling that would naturally occur due to changes in the Earth's orbital characteristics are unable to turn the temperature tide.

Over the past million years, the Earth's carbon dioxide levels, as recorded in ice core samples, have never reached more than 280 parts per million in the atmosphere. "We are now at 390 parts per million," Channell said. The sudden spike has occurred in the last 150 years.

For millions of years, carbon dioxide levels have ebbed and flowed between ice ages. Orbital patterns initiate periods of warming that cause ocean circulation to change.

The changes cause carbon dioxide-rich water in the deep ocean to well up toward the surface where the carbon dioxide is released as a gas back into the atmosphere.

The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide then drives further warming and eventually the orbital pattern shifts again and decreases the amount of solar heat that reaches the Earth.

"The problem is that now we have added to the total amount of CO2 cycling through the system by burning fossil fuels," said Channell. "The cooling forces can't keep up."

Channell said that the study, funded by the National Science Foundation in the U.S, and the Research Council of Norway and the Natural Environment Research Council in the United Kingdom, brings to the forefront the importance of atmospheric carbon dioxide because it shows the dramatic effect that it is having on a natural cycle that has controlled our Earth's climate for millions of years.

"We haven't seen this high concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere for several million years," Channell said. "All bets are off."
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Next_ ... s_999.html

what occurred on Mars and Venus bears no relation to earth.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by macdoc » Sat Jun 09, 2012 9:31 pm

crumple
ve tried to think about this being more akin to a shock loading on the climate. I don't know if it is possible to model what will happen with this but I recall shock loadings on complex systems are not very good. If anyone as noticed on Mars most of the water drifted to one pole and the CO2 drifted to the other. This could happen here in the extreme, as well as going the way of Venus. Then it could all calm down following a human population crash although I doubt it would calm down much myself
No - you may not understand the nature of carbon in the atmosphere - it does not "calm down" - carbon loading in human terms is forever ( 100,000 years ) as David Archer explains here

Carbon is Forever
http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812 ... 8.122.html

Even if we stopped cold and humans disappeared the warming from the current levels would continue for decades and the climate would settle into a new and warmer equilibrium. We are about half way .8C into a 1.6 C rise if we stopped......and we aren't and won't.

Now if there was a rapid regeneration of forests in that period of human disappearance - carbon uptake would accelerate and the in conjunction with orbital generated lower solar radiation a balance would be struck.

That said - even the present level of carbon has not been seen for millions of years and positive feedbacks including albedo change and notably methane and carbon release from the tundra/taiga could lead to a repeat of the Permian event even without input from us as there are several dozen atmospheres worth of carbon sequestered in the perma-frost which IS melting and is releasing both methane and carbon.

Methane has 20 times the impact of CO2 so indeed a huge release would have a shock impact but methane drops out of play in a few years unlike C02.

This is a good primer and history

Background/history
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

and this explains the carbon cycle
http://wufs.wustl.edu/pathfinder/path20 ... _13_07.htm

The science is neither new nor particularly difficult to understand.
The scale of the threat is not widely understood and the path to dealing with it not at all clear and where time and money should be focused.
One of those proposals is S02 injection. :ani:

Far better we employ carbon reduction now than risk geo-engineering.
The cloud ships and others like micro-bubble release offer a less pervasive method. Better yet we avoid it and settle for a somewhat warmer and more violent climate - at this point we have no choice in that.

How bad it gets depends on eliminating foolishness like MM is spouting and getting governments to move their sorry asses in taxing fossil carbon fuels out of existence.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by mistermack » Sun Jun 10, 2012 1:36 pm

The AGW fever is ludicrous, and self perpetuating, because climate science is now such a huge industry among academics. And it's a self perpetuating industry. Nobody EVER publishes an article that says, hey, this aspect isn't as bad as we thought. Why? Because they would get crucified, even if it's true.
So everybody is running around trying to find things that make it look worse.

So it's reached the point where AGW speculation is actually alive, and evolving, in a true sense of the word.

We have survival-of-the-gloomiest.
Anything not sufficiently gloomy dies, the most gloomy survives, and gives birth to more gloom.
And so you get a next generation of gloomier speculation.

But at the end of the day, people have nearly forgotten, that it's ALL speculation, based on a warm period that could easily be natural.

I would bet that if the climate had cooled a little, they would all be forecasting a devastating glaciation.
And I might actually take that seriously.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by Hermit » Sun Jun 10, 2012 2:49 pm

Woodbutcher wrote:You don't have to believe in climate change. It will still be a fact. Only Republicans and fundies in the US deny it now because they refuse to look at the facts, instead relying on anecdotal evidence. If 15000 climate professionals agree on something, I tend to find it reasonable that there is some truth to their position. Would you direct me to some peer-reviewed, scientific papers on climate change that has no anthropological component. Bet you cant!
Yes, there definitely is climate change. It's cyclical and predates human agriculture and industry by aeons. It's scale is also way higher than the range recorded in the past 150 years. Here are the results reaching back 800,00 years as gleaned from an ice core taken at the Vostok station in Antarctica:

Image

As for CO2 being the cause of global warming, there is a problem explaining that; Rises in temperature precede rises in CO2 levels by 700 to 1000 years.

Image

I'm not claiming human activity has no influence on global weather conditions. I do think that some pretty fucking stupid arguments have been advanced by those who keep warning us about global warming.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by macdoc » Sun Jun 10, 2012 4:56 pm

well you are wrong.

All you are showing there is Milankovitch cycles. There is zero problem understanding those.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
C02 is an amplifier in conditions where it is not primary driver.

There have been two episodes where fossil C02 was the primary driver of major swing in the climate.
The first was the Siberian Traps and the consequence of that was the Permian extinction.
The other is now.

You clearly have no concept of the carbon cycle and WHY C02 levels will rise with orbital warming. Warming oceans release C02 which amplifies the orbital warming and that occurs long before the ice melts due to latent heat - it takes a lot of heat to melt ice. We are effectively carpet bombing Greenland with 2,000 nukes a day thermal equivalent. ....and that's now without much in the way of positive feedbacks kicking in.

With the way Russian heat is rising the feedback from the taiga will not take long to emerge. While this was within natural variability - climate change makes extremes like this 5 times more likely and once methane/carbon release commences from melting permafrost it is not going to stop.

Image

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/ ... te-change/

Stop spreading disinformation about a risk you don't understand. You are just parroting idiots like Watts who are funded by the likes of the Heartland Institute and Koch to sow disinformation.

Why the fuck would fossil fuel scientists tell their employers the evidence could not be refuted 17 years ago and you're still in denial.

What a totally stupid position to take in the face of the massive evidence - no matter what we do we are in it.....how deep depends on our actions over the next couple of decades.

And you're spouting long discredited shite.

BTW climate is NOT weather.

fucking unreal...... :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

This guy knows a bit more than you and this is what we risk

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/ ... 1-billion/

and this outcome could be worse


The world's marine ecosystems risk being severely damaged by ocean acidification unless there are dramatic cuts in CO2 emissions, warn scientists.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7860350.stm

and you blithely spout crap.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by Hermit » Sun Jun 10, 2012 5:32 pm

Lovely dummyspit, that, Mac.

How wonderful that we have a name for those long-term cycles. So what? And if increased CO2 levels precede increases in average temperatures by 700 to 1000 years, it really ought to make you at least wonder if they really are the cause of global warming. Once you have calmed down sufficiently, you might be able to explain it to me. I am open to persuasion.
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by Atheist-Lite » Sun Jun 10, 2012 5:38 pm

Let's all calm down a little? If we wait long enough for the numbers to be really out of skew, rather than trending that way, there will be proof enough to convince everyone still alive at that time. :crumple:
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Re: Global Skies Turn A Pale Anemic Shade Of White?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Jun 10, 2012 5:41 pm

I suggest we do a cold boot of the planet and start over.
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Ein Ubootsoldat wrote:“Ich melde mich ab. Grüssen Sie bitte meine Kameraden.”

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