Global Climate Change Science News

[FBM]

Hmm. I do already tend to consume the least necessary instead of the most possible.

From time to time I hear stories about carbon capturing systems. Maybe if someone comes up with one (or several) that's sufficiently large-scale, we might be able to wrestle the situation into something manageable.

[macdoc]

Yup pretty much what rEv stated is my view and what is worrying is that 4C could be as early as 2060.
That said it all helps as carbon persists so individual efforts are important. Oddly things like consuming less beef and supporting methane control initiatives may have more leverage in the short term.

Once in the atmosphere methane it drops out relatively quickly so the trick is to reduce emissions not remove them.

Changing cattle feed, switching to roo burgers, using methane as a fuel from landfills rather than release to atmosphere are all viable ways of curbing it before release.

These are the current sources aside from the Arctic



and some ideas of how to reduce them

Reducing Methane Emissions

There are a number of ways to reduce methane (CH4) emissions. EPA has a series of voluntary programs for reducing CH4 emissions. Some examples are discussed below.

Examples of Reduction Opportunities for Methane
Emissions Source How Emissions Can be Reduced
Industry

Upgrading the equipment used to produce, store, and transport oil and gas can reduce many of the leaks that contribute to CH4 emissions. Methane from coal mines can also be captured and used for energy. Learn more about the EPA's Natural Gas STAR Program and Coalbed Methane Outreach Program.

Agriculture

Methane can be reduced and captured by altering manure management strategies at livestock operations or animal feeding practices. Learn more about these strategies and EPA's AgSTAR Program.

Waste from Homes and Businesses

Because CH4 emissions from landfill gas are a major source of CH4 emissions in the United States, emission controls that capture landfill CH4 are an effective reduction strategy. Learn more about these opportunities and the EPA's Landfill Methane Outreach Program.

there are other good sources referred
http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissio ... s/ch4.html

Reducing methane emissions from livestock
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) scientists at the Lethbridge Research Centre in Alberta are developing methane mitigation strategies for the beef and dairy industries.

Methane gas is a potent greenhouse gas produced in the rumen of cattle during the normal process of feed digestion and represents a significant loss of feed energy that increases feed costs. For example, a lactating dairy cow produces about 400 grams of methane each day. These methane losses quickly add up. In one year, the amount of methane a dairy cow produces is equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions from a mid-sized vehicle driven 20,000 kilometres.

http://www4.agr.gc.ca/AAFC-AAC/display- ... 8&lang=eng

This is the key concept

Methane cuts could delay climate change by 15 years

28 March 2012 by Fred Pearce

THE world could buy itself 15 years of breathing space for fighting climate change, one of the world's top climate modellers argued on Monday.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2 ... years.html

I don't think we are anywhere near the PT extinction scenario unless the taiga tundra heat dramatically and release all the clathrates which could indeed have been a factor or even THE factor in the PT extinction's scale of destruction.

We are fortunate the chemistry in this universe has methane dropping out of play rather quickly given how potent it is as a GHG
•••

Climate Change's Effects On Temperate Rain Forests Surprisingly Complex

Jan. 18, 2013 — Longer, warmer growing seasons associated with a changing climate are altering growing conditions in temperate rain forests, but not all plant species will be negatively affected, according to research conducted by the U.S. Forest Service's Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Research featured in the January 2013 issue of Science Findings -- a monthly publication of the station -- reveals a complex range of forest plant responses to a warming climate.

" Although the overall potential for growth increases as the climate warms, we found that plant species differ in their ability to adapt to these changing conditions," said Tara Barrett, a research forester with the station who led the study.

Barrett and her colleagues explored trends in forest composition in southeastern and south-central Alaska, home to the bulk of the world's temperate rain forests. The researchers found an uptick in growth in higher elevations of the region over the 13-year period, with an almost eight-percent increase in live-tree biomass, a measure of tree growth. Individual species within the rain forest, however, differed -- western redcedar biomass increased by four percent, while shore pine declined by almost five percent.

As forest managers consider climate impacts like these in the management of their forests, scientists, including Barrett and research biologist David L. Peterson, are communicating climate change science within the agency, helping managers -- in Alaska and beyond -- to meet this challenge.

In another research effort, featured in the December 2012 issue of Science Findings, Peterson summarized the scientific basis for climate change adaptation. He and his colleagues across the country have conducted case studies that revealed the critical role of science-management partnerships in adaptation planning and have produced a climate change guidebook and Web portal for climate science information.

" The main objective is to get science in the hands of managers so that they have the basic information, but also have access to the documentation they need to do their jobs," said Peterson.

Further information: Tangled trends for temperate rain forests as temperatures tick up

[macdoc]

Nice to have a heavy weight in this finally.....we'll see how he does against entrenched interests.

Barack Obama promises US action on climate

* Updated 16:46 23 January 2013 by Andy Coghlan
* For similar stories, visit the Climate Change and US national issues Topic Guides

President Barack Obama yesterday vowed to put the fight against global warming at the heart of his next four-year term in office.

Sweeping aside years of American prevarication on whether to act on emissions, Obama promised the US would lead the world in its efforts to curb global warming, and in the development of the technologies to achieve this goal.

"We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations," he said on Monday in his inaugural address to the nation.

more

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2 ... imate.html

[cronus]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 131052.htm

Biodiversity Helps Protect Nature Against Human Impacts

Feb. 6, 2013 — "You don't know what you've got 'til it's collapsed." That's how University of Guelph integrative biologists might recast a line from an iconic folk tune for their new research paper warning about the perils of ecosystem breakdown.

Their research, published February 6 as the cover story in Nature, suggests farmers and resource managers should not rely on seemingly stable but vulnerable single-crop monocultures. Instead they should encourage more kinds of plants in fields and woods as a buffer against sudden ecosystem disturbance.
Based on a 10-year study, their paper also lends scientific weight to esthetic and moral arguments for maintaining species biodiversity.
The study was written by Profs. Andrew MacDougall and Kevin McCann, graduate student Gabriel Gellner and Roy Turkington, a botany professor and member of the Biodiversity Research Centre at the University of British Columbia.
Their research confirms that having lots of species in an area helps ecosystems avoid irreversible collapse after human disturbances such as climate change or pest invasion.
"Species are more important than we think," said MacDougall. "We need to protect biodiversity."
Unlike other scientists usually relying on short-term, artificial study plots, the researchers studied long-standing pasture grasslands on southern Vancouver Island for 10 years. The 10-hectare site owned by the Nature Conservancy of Canada consists of oak savannah where fires have been suppressed for about 150 years.
The team selectively burned plots to compare areas of mostly grasses with areas of mixed grasses and diverse native plants.
They found that seemingly stable grassland plots collapsed in one growing season and were subsequently invaded by trees. More diverse sites resisted woody plant invasion.
Diversity also affected fire itself. More diverse areas had less persistent ground litter, making high-intensity fires less likely to recur than in single-species grasslands with more litter serving as fuel.
MacDougall said the study supports resource management strategies that increase biodiversity on land and in aquatic ecosystems. A monoculture stand of trees or crops might appear stable and productive, for example -- but it's an ecosystem that is more vulnerable to collapse, he said, adding that this study helps explain why species diversity matters.

(continued)

[pErvinalia]

I'm surprised that anyone actually did research on this topic in this day and age. This is the foundational basis of ecological science. This sort of simple advice has been communicated to farmers and resource managers for decades now (not that they've necessarily paid any attention to it). And I've communicated it (as an ecologist) on forums for years now.

[cronus]

I'm surprised that anyone actually did research on this topic in this day and age. This is the foundational basis of ecological science. This sort of simple advice has been communicated to farmers and resource managers for decades now (not that they've necessarily paid any attention to it). And I've communicated it (as an ecologist) on forums for years now.

It is rather sad and a somewhat bleak sign when the patently obvious needs explaining isn't it?

[Tero]

I'm giving up.
http://teroreport.blogspot.com/2013/02/ ... other.html

The last denialist they dragged in was Anthony Watts.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Anthony_Watts

[macdoc]

Nice bit of science

Weather Extremes Provoked by Trapping of Giant Waves in the Atmosphere


Meridional windfield over four different timespans. (Credit: Image courtesy of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

Feb. 25, 2013 — The world has suffered from severe regional weather extremes in recent years, such as the heat wave in the United States in 2011 or the one in Russia 2010 coinciding with the unprecedented Pakistan flood. Behind these devastating individual events there is a common physical cause, propose scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The study will be published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and suggests that man-made climate change repeatedly disturbs the patterns of atmospheric flow around the globe's Northern hemisphere through a subtle resonance mechanism.

"An important part of the global air motion in the mid-latitudes of the Earth normally takes the form of waves wandering around the planet, oscillating between the tropical and the Arctic regions. So when they swing up, these waves suck warm air from the tropics to Europe, Russia, or the US, and when they swing down, they do the same thing with cold air from the Arctic," explains lead author Vladimir Petoukhov.

"What we found is that during several recent extreme weather events these planetary waves almost freeze in their tracks for weeks. So instead of bringing in cool air after having brought warm air in before, the heat just stays. In fact, we observe a strong amplification of the usually weak, slowly moving component of these waves," says Petoukhov. Time is critical here: two or three days of 30 degrees Celsius are no problem, but twenty or more days lead to extreme heat stress. Since many ecosystems and cities are not adapted to this, prolonged hot periods can result in a high death toll, forest fires, and dramatic harvest losses.

Anomalous surface temperatures are disturbing the air flows

Climate change caused by greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil-fuel burning does not mean uniform global warming -- in the Arctic, the relative increase of temperatures, amplified by the loss of snow and ice, is higher than on average. This in turn reduces the temperature difference between the Arctic and, for example, Europe, yet temperature differences are a main driver of air flow. Additionally, continents generally warm and cool more readily than the oceans. "These two factors are crucial for the mechanism we detected," says Petoukhov. "They result in an unnatural pattern of the mid-latitude air flow, so that for extended periods the slow synoptic waves get trapped."

The authors of the study developed equations that describe the wave motions in the extra-tropical atmosphere and show under what conditions those waves can grind to a halt and get amplified. They tested their assumptions using standard daily weather data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). During recent periods in which several major weather extremes occurred, the trapping and strong amplification of particular waves -- like "wave seven" (which has seven troughs and crests spanning the globe) -- was indeed observed. The data show an increase in the occurrence of these specific atmospheric patterns, which is statistically significant at the 90 percent confidence level.

The probability of extremes increases -- but other factors come in as well

"Our dynamical analysis helps to explain the increasing number of novel weather extremes. It complements previous research that already linked such phenomena to climate change, but did not yet identify a mechanism behind it," says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK and co-author of the study. "This is quite a breakthrough, even though things are not at all simple -- the suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability." Also, the 32-year period studied in the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved, yet is too short for definite conclusions.

Nevertheless, the study significantly advances the understanding of the relation between weather extremes and human-made climate change. Scientists were surprised by how far outside past experience some of the recent extremes have been. The new data show that the emergence of extraordinary weather is not just a linear response to the mean warming trend, and the proposed mechanism could explain that.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 153128.htm

[macdoc]

That 3.2 C average winter temps for Canada increase is just the beginning of the major shifts in the North

New Models Predict Drastically Greener Arctic in Coming Decades


This set of images shows the observed distribution of Arctic vegetation (left) in relation to the predicted distribution of vegetation under a climate warming scenario for the 2050s (right). Data used to generate the observed image are from the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (2003). (Credit: AMNH/R. Pearson)

Mar. 31, 2013 — New research predicts that rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening," or increase in plant cover, in the Arctic. In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected.

"Such widespread redistribution of Arctic vegetation would have impacts that reverberate through the global ecosystem," said Richard Pearson, lead author on the paper and a research scientist at the American Museum of Natural History's Center for Biodiversity and Conservation.
.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 165603.htm

[Tyrannical]

[macdoc]

Yes I've noticed the increased La Nina frequency and it makes sense in terms of vertical thermals in the ocean. Buys some time.

•••••

A Warming World Will Further Intensify Extreme Precipitation Events, Research Shows


Percent maximum daily precipitation difference (2071-2100) - (1971-2000). (Credit: NOAA)

Apr. 8, 2013 — According to a newly-published NOAA-led study in Geophysical Research Letters, as the globe warms from rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, more moisture in a warmer atmosphere will make the most extreme precipitation events more intense.

The study, conducted by a team of researchers from the North Carolina State University's Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina (CICS-NC), NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the Desert Research Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and ERT, Inc., reports that the extra moisture due to a warmer atmosphere dominates all other factors and leads to notable increases in the most intense precipitation rates.

The study also shows a 20-30 percent expected increase in the maximum precipitation possible over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse gases continue to rise at a high emissions rate.

"We have high confidence that the most extreme rainfalls will become even more intense, as it is virtually certain that the atmosphere will provide more water to fuel these events," said Kenneth Kunkel, Ph.D., senior research professor at CICS-NC and lead author of the paper.

The paper looked at three factors that go into the maximum precipitation value possible in any given location: moisture in the atmosphere, upward motion of air in the atmosphere, and horizontal winds. The team examined climate model data to understand how a continued course of high greenhouse gas emissions would influence the potential maximum precipitation. While greenhouse gas increases did not substantially change the maximum upward motion of the atmosphere or horizontal winds, the models did show a 20-30 percent increase in maximum moisture in the atmosphere, which led to a corresponding increase in the maximum precipitation value.

The findings of this report could inform "design values," or precipitation amounts, used by water resource managers, insurance and building sectors in modeling the risk due to catastrophic precipitation amounts. Engineers use design values to determine the design of water impoundments and runoff control structures, such as dams, culverts, and detention ponds.

"Our next challenge is to translate this research into local and regional new design values that can be used for identifying risks and mitigating potential disasters. Findings of this study, and others like it, could lead to new information for engineers and developers that will save lives and major infrastructure investments," said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., director of NOAA's NCDC in Asheville, N.C., and co-author on the paper.

[macdoc]

New Insight Into Accelerating Summer Ice Melt On the Antarctic Peninsula


Ice core camp. (Credit: Image courtesy of British Antarctic Survey)

Apr. 14, 2013 — A new 1,000-year Antarctic Peninsula climate reconstruction shows that summer ice melting has intensified almost ten-fold, and mostly since the mid-20th century. Summer ice melt affects the stability of Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers.

Ice core camp

The research, published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience, adds new knowledge to the international effort that is required to understand the causes of environmental change in Antarctica and to make more accurate projections about the direct and indirect contribution of Antarctica's ice shelves and glaciers to global sea level rise.

In 2008, a UK-French science team drilled a 364-metre long ice core from James Ross Island, near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, to measure past temperatures in the area. They discovered that this ice core could also give a unique and unexpected insight into ice melt in the region.

Visible layers in the ice core indicated periods when summer snow on the ice cap thawed and then refroze. By measuring the thickness of these melt layers the scientists were able to examine how the history of melting compared with changes in temperature at the ice core site over the last 1,000 years.

Lead author Dr Nerilie Abram of The Australian National University and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) says, "We found that the coolest conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and the lowest amount of summer melt occurred around 600 years ago. At that time temperatures were around 1.6°C lower than those recorded in the late 20th Century and the amount of annual snowfall that melted and refroze was about 0.5%. Today, we see almost ten times as much (5%) of the annual snowfall melting each year.

"Summer melting at the ice core site today is now at a level that is higher than at any other time over the last 1000 years. And whilst temperatures at this site increased gradually in phases over many hundreds of years, most of the intensification of melting has happened since the mid-20th century."

This is the first time it has been demonstrated that levels of ice melt on the Antarctic Peninsula have been particularly sensitive to increasing temperature during the 20th century.

Dr Abram explains, "What that means is that the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed to a level where even small increases in temperature can now lead to a big increase in summer ice melt."

Dr Robert Mulvaney from the British Antarctic Survey led the ice core drilling expedition and co-authored the paper. He says, "Having a record of previous melt intensity for the Peninsula is particularly important because of the glacier retreat and ice shelf loss we are now seeing in the area. Summer ice melt is a key process that is thought to have weakened ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula leading to a succession of dramatic collapses, as well as speeding up glacier ice loss across the region over the last 50 years."

In other parts of Antarctica, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the picture is more complex and it is not yet clear that the levels of recent ice melt and glacier loss are exceptional or caused by human-driven climate changes.

Dr Abram concludes, "This new ice core record shows that even small changes in temperature can result in large increases in the amount of melting in places where summer temperatures are near to 0°C, such as along the Antarctic Peninsula, and this has important implications for ice instability and sea level rise in a warming climate."

This research was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council. Dr Abram is an Australian Research Council Queen Elizabeth II Fellow.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 193437.htm

[cronus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22127123

Biofuels: 'Irrational' and 'worse than fossil fuels'

The UK's "irrational" use of biofuels will cost motorists around £460 million over the next 12 months, a think tank says.

A report by Chatham House says the growing reliance on sustainable liquid fuels will also increase food prices.

The author says that biodiesel made from vegetable oil was worse for the climate than fossil fuels.

Under EU law, biofuels are set to make up 5% of the UK's transport fuel from today.

Since 2008, the UK has required fuel suppliers to add a growing proportion of sustainable materials into the petrol and diesel they supply. These biofuels are mainly ethanol distilled from corn and biodiesel made from rapeseed, used cooking oil and tallow.

Deep fried fuel
But research carried out for Chatham House says that reaching the 5% level means that UK motorists will have to pay an extra £460m a year because of the higher cost of fuel at the pump and from filling up more often as biofuels have a lower energy content.

The report say that if the UK is to meet its obligations to EU energy targets the cost to motorists is likely to rise to £1.3bn per annum by 2020.

"It is hard to find any good news," Rob Bailey, senior research fellow at Chatham House, told BBC News.

"Biofuels increase costs and they are a very expensive way to reduce carbon emissions," he said.

The EU biofuel mandates are also having hugely distorting effects in the marketplace. Because used cooking oil is regarded as one of the most sustainable types of biodiesel, the price for it has risen rapidly. Rob Bailey says that towards the end of 2012 it was more expensive than refined palm oil.

"It creates a financial incentive to buy refined palm oil, cook a chip in it to turn it into used cooking oil and then sell it at profit,"

(continued, climate or scrumple? )

[Clinton Huxley]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22127123

"It creates a financial incentive to buy refined palm oil, cook a chip in it to turn it into used cooking oil and then sell it at profit,"

(continued, climate or scrumple? )

Ah,the ingenuity of the market.

[Tyrannical]

More evidence climate change models, and hence their predictions are useless.

When a model fails to predict past events, the model is supposed to get thrown out because it is clearly wrong

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/the ... -droughts/

A recent report on the failure of climate change models to predict the timing of major droughts in the Southwest made me think of some of the problems in my own field. Unfortunately the actual paper is not out yet so we will have to wait for the details, but the news piece in Nature has a good summary.

Sloan Coats of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, and his colleagues tested whether a state-of-the-art climate model could simulate the droughts known to have occurred in the southwest during the past millennium. The model incorporated realistic numbers for factors that affect temperature and rainfall, such as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, changes in solar radiation and ash from volcanic eruptions. It also incorporated changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The results were puzzling. Although the simulation produced a number of pronounced droughts lasting several decades each, these did not match the timing of known megadroughts. In fact, drought occurrences were no more in agreement when the model was fed realistic values for variables that influence rainfall than when it ran control simulations in which the values were unrealistically held constant. “The model seems to miss some of the dynamics that drive large droughts,” says study participant Jason Smerdon, a researcher at Lamont-Doherty who studies historical climate patterns.

Other climate models tested by the team fared no better, he says. In particular, the models failed to reproduce a series of multi-decadal droughts that occurred in the southwest during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, a period between AD 900 and 1200 when global temperatures were about as high as they are today.