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Don't Panic
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by Don't Panic » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:21 pm
oblivion wrote:welp.
hey DP I noticed you were posting elsewhere on ratz before nightfall. Any reason you didn't come back to the game thread?
I was at work and giving a quick read through mod stuff and the new posts, didn't have time to catch up with the game thread.
Reading the thread now and there is something odd in there, a pattern to the way the bws formed, but it's like seeing something out of the corner of your eye, and when you look it's gone, but it seems too random to be random if that makes sense, some votes are too well spaced, need some coffee and a detailed spreadsheet to map this out. Gimme an hour or two.
Gawd wrote:»
And those Zumwalts are already useless, they can be taken out with an ICBM.
The world is a thing of utter inordinate complexity and richness and strangeness that is absolutely awesome. I mean the idea that such complexity can arise not only out of such simplicity, but probably absolutely out of nothing, is the most fabulous extraordinary idea. And once you get some kind of inkling of how that might have happened, it's just wonderful. And . . . the opportunity to spend 70 or 80 years of your life in such a universe is time well spent as far as I am concerned.
D.N.A.
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oblivion
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by oblivion » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:23 pm
Ok.
I"m wondering about the also-ran wagons. the whole scum team is unlikely to be on one wagon. With 15 players it's conceivable we have a scum team comprised of 4.
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Don't Panic
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by Don't Panic » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:40 pm
oblivion wrote:Ok.
I"m wondering about the also-ran wagons. the whole scum team is unlikely to be on one wagon. With 15 players it's conceivable we have a scum team comprised of 4.
Last game someone said 3 scum in 14 players is right balance, so 4 scum would probably mean special heavy town? Flavour does lend itself to lots of fun roles.
Gawd wrote:»
And those Zumwalts are already useless, they can be taken out with an ICBM.
The world is a thing of utter inordinate complexity and richness and strangeness that is absolutely awesome. I mean the idea that such complexity can arise not only out of such simplicity, but probably absolutely out of nothing, is the most fabulous extraordinary idea. And once you get some kind of inkling of how that might have happened, it's just wonderful. And . . . the opportunity to spend 70 or 80 years of your life in such a universe is time well spent as far as I am concerned.
D.N.A.
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oblivion
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by oblivion » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:50 pm
12 is on paper a perfect balance with 2 town specials and 3 scum. At 15 or 16, I'd either increase the scum team, add an indie, and/or add 1 or 2 town specials. HOWEVER, adding town specials has an exponential effect on town effectiveness, because the real value of specials (outside the usual power roles) is their ability to clear themselves. You have to either make outing the role dramatically decrease its effectiveness (think town bomb, etc.) or you have to think about passive/non-self-aware roles.
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BarnettNewman
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by BarnettNewman » Mon Sep 19, 2011 7:55 pm
oblivion wrote:Gonzo wrote:amok and irre were the only players who bothered to explain their votes on mantis

bullshit.
I didn't put it all in one post, but there were about 3 posts by me within a 30-45 minute timeframe, and at least two of them were about my suspicions of mantis.
Damn it! Second time in a row. Sorry mantis.
I gave an explanation and in the available time did my best. I honestly don't think there is anything to go on, so explain what exactly? Now that we have a final voting pattern that will tell us a good deal more as OB's analysis above shows. We have more to go on in day 2.
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Uselesstwit
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by Uselesstwit » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:16 pm
Might have to give you a cheerleading award for that one fellto. If there is a scum on mantis's bw i'd guess amok, bnew or ksen would be my top choices for it. I also got a whiff of distancing from athene but that could be a misread, she didn't post all that much.
irretating wrote:you're a genius, UT!
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BarnettNewman
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by BarnettNewman » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:31 pm
Uselesstwit wrote:Might have to give you a cheerleading award for that one fellto.
How's that UT. OB says I was a follow, so which is it? I gave the best day one analysis possible. If anyone else definitively claims to see scum from only the first day they are clairvoyant or lying.
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Magicziggy
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by Magicziggy » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:32 pm
That was silly. What did I say?
Anyway, we'll pick the bones out of that bandwagon.
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oblivion
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by oblivion » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:38 pm
BarnettNewman wrote:Uselesstwit wrote:Might have to give you a cheerleading award for that one fellto.
How's that UT. OB says I was a follow, so which is it? I gave the best day one analysis possible. If anyone else definitively claims to see scum from only the first day they are clairvoyant or lying.
I think gonzo said you were followy and he was talking about this post:
BarnettNewman wrote:oblivion wrote:Gonzo wrote:amok and irre were the only players who bothered to explain their votes on mantis

bullshit.
I didn't put it all in one post, but there were about 3 posts by me within a 30-45 minute timeframe, and at least two of them were about my suspicions of mantis.
Damn it! Second time in a row. Sorry mantis.
I gave an explanation and in the available time did my best. I honestly don't think there is anything to go on, so explain what exactly? Now that we have a final voting pattern that will tell us a good deal more as OB's analysis above shows. We have more to go on in day 2.
the damnit, sorry mantis is classic reverse cheerleading.
from what I've seen at ratz, players who started at ratskep tend to do this sort of posting at first. Some never get out of the habit, even though it sometimes results in getting lynched.
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oblivion
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by oblivion » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:38 pm
^^ UT was talking about this post, not gonzo.
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Feck
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by Feck » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:41 pm
BarnettNewman wrote:Uselesstwit wrote:Might have to give you a cheerleading award for that one fellto.
How's that UT. OB says I was a follow, so which is it? I gave the best day one analysis possible. If anyone else definitively claims to see scum from only the first day they are clairvoyant or lying.
check day one last game .
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Don't Panic
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by Don't Panic » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:50 pm
Hmm, the spacing on some of the votes yesterday seems interesting, a little too closely spaced for a read and post, take a look.
Gawd wrote:»
And those Zumwalts are already useless, they can be taken out with an ICBM.
The world is a thing of utter inordinate complexity and richness and strangeness that is absolutely awesome. I mean the idea that such complexity can arise not only out of such simplicity, but probably absolutely out of nothing, is the most fabulous extraordinary idea. And once you get some kind of inkling of how that might have happened, it's just wonderful. And . . . the opportunity to spend 70 or 80 years of your life in such a universe is time well spent as far as I am concerned.
D.N.A.
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Feck
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by Feck » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:54 pm
And what pray tell is an .xls file ? and what opens it and why are you tying to pretending to analyse the game ?
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Linus
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by Linus » Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:00 pm
Don't Panic wrote:Hmm, the spacing on some of the votes yesterday seems interesting, a little too closely spaced for a read and post, take a look.
mafia.xls
Not sure I follow this. What's the most suspicious spacing you find? I'd like to reread that bit in the thread.
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Don't Panic
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by Don't Panic » Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:03 pm
Linus wrote:Don't Panic wrote:Hmm, the spacing on some of the votes yesterday seems interesting, a little too closely spaced for a read and post, take a look.
mafia.xls
Not sure I follow this. What's the most suspicious spacing you find? I'd like to reread that bit in the thread.
Twice there are flurries of votes in really short intervals, the ones on me and one of the blocks on Mantis, seems odd to me that 2 or 3 players would have read the posts, and arrived at the same decision in such a short interval. Scum have the advantage of being able to talk off thread, that can manifest in vote patterns since they are discussing things prior to posting here.
Gawd wrote:»
And those Zumwalts are already useless, they can be taken out with an ICBM.
The world is a thing of utter inordinate complexity and richness and strangeness that is absolutely awesome. I mean the idea that such complexity can arise not only out of such simplicity, but probably absolutely out of nothing, is the most fabulous extraordinary idea. And once you get some kind of inkling of how that might have happened, it's just wonderful. And . . . the opportunity to spend 70 or 80 years of your life in such a universe is time well spent as far as I am concerned.
D.N.A.
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