Economists

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Sean Hayden
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Economists

Post by Sean Hayden » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:15 pm

What do they know? Do they know things? Let's find out.

1. Have tax cuts increased revenue?

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Re: Economists

Post by JimC » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:11 pm

From all that I've read, economists are very divided, with a wide range of opinions, and few of those based on evidence that the general public could either understand or trust.

The dismal science indeed...
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Re: Economists

Post by Sean Hayden » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:58 pm

That's been my impression too, ergo this thread.

Regarding question 1. we've had data here since at least Reagan, and yet you get answers from definently not, to yes, but the effect is small, to Reagan proved it, to it's never even been tested!

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Re: Economists

Post by Seabass » Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:57 pm

It's pretty much been definitively proven at this point that cutting taxes doesn't increase revenue. Every time the Republicans do it, the deficit explodes and the magical increase in productivity never comes.
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Re: Economists

Post by PsychoSerenity » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:48 pm

I'm fascinated by economics but it's so frustrating because so much of it is pure pseudoscience for the purpose political propaganda.
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]

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Re: Economists

Post by Hermit » Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:34 am

PsychoSerenity wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:48 pm
I'm fascinated by economics but it's so frustrating because so much of it is pure pseudoscience for the purpose political propaganda.
The contortions some pundits go through in order to prove that black is white can be truly amazing. For example, an article titled US Wages Have Been Rising Faster Than Productivity For Decades purports to prove that this graph depicting the increasing gap between wages and productivity

Image

is totally wrong. It begins with redefining income. Adding employers's contributions to pension and health insurance costs is fair enough, but that still does not go near closing the gap. So the author proceeds to fiddle with inflation via the CPI, and adds "interesting concepts, such as "hedonistic adjustments", which somehow reduce inflation for wage earners only, and "demand shifts", which also have that effect.

In the end he comes up with this set of squiggly lines:

Image

See? The difference between productivity and wages growth has all but disappeared.


An interesting thing to note is that you cannot tell from any of those charts whether economic policy was controlled by the conservatives (Republicans) or the neoliberals (Democrats), be they in the House of Representatives, the Senate or the Oval Office.

Image
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Re: Economists

Post by laklak » Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:35 am

Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say 'on hand...', then 'but on the other... - Harry S. Truman
Yeah well that's just, like, your opinion, man.

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Re: Economists

Post by Svartalf » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:20 am

Sean Hayden wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:15 pm
What do they know? Do they know things? Let's find out.

1. Have tax cuts increased revenue?
Wait what? whose revenue are you asking about?
because technically it doesn't.
a) tax cust actually diminish state revenue, mechanically.
b) although they increase the available money to taxpayers concerned, they don't actually increase their raw revenue, only the portion they have available after mandatory expenses are paid.
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Re: Economists

Post by Svartalf » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:22 am

PsychoSerenity wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:48 pm
I'm fascinated by economics but it's so frustrating because so much of it is pure pseudoscience for the purpose political propaganda.
'fraid so, I've known honest economists who knew their stuff, but far too many of the breed are actually ideologists touting blatant falsehoods, though I'm not sure whether they actually believe in them or are lying throught their teeth... lying for the Bottom Line.
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Re: Economists

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:52 am

Svartalf wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:20 am
Sean Hayden wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:15 pm
What do they know? Do they know things? Let's find out.

1. Have tax cuts increased revenue?
Wait what? whose revenue are you asking about?
because technically it doesn't.
a) tax cust actually diminish state revenue, mechanically.
b) although they increase the available money to taxpayers concerned, they don't actually increase their raw revenue, only the portion they have available after mandatory expenses are paid.
Well the argument is that when you free up capital it will lead to greater investment and growth (thereby increasing the tax intake). Basically
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Re: Economists

Post by Svartalf » Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:22 am

that's the same brand of poppycock as trickle down economics... because, still mechanically, the "additional"' tax revenue generated by economic growth and lessened tax fraud will STILL be significantly less than the reduction from the cuts, since some of those will be kept by the taxpayer, and anyway, since the "additional" tax revenue depends on the actual taxable portion of profits made on investments, it would take these investments making truly astounding profits for the taxes on those to compensate the original cuts.
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Re: Economists

Post by Brian Peacock » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:34 am

"Economies are regulated systems of social relations and interaction. Without regulation there is no economy; merely feudal barbarism."
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Re: Economists

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:43 am

Yeah, but it's regulated for the rich against the poorer.
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Re: Economists

Post by laklak » Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:46 pm

They just need to learn to live within their means. That's what they tell us to do. Oh yeah - and save enough so they can get by for 6 months without income.

What's sauce for the goose.
Yeah well that's just, like, your opinion, man.

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Re: Economists

Post by Joe » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:02 pm

Sean Hayden wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:15 pm
What do they know? Do they know things? Let's find out.

1. Have tax cuts increased revenue?
No, tax cuts buy votes.

The Laffer theory is that, if the tax rate is high enough, a cut in the rate will stimulate the economy sufficiently to lead to an increase in revenue.

I minored in economics in college and understand the theory. It looks good on paper, but in the hands of politicians it's "voodoo economics."
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