A few thoughts on the future of military power as related to conscription…
Conscription has been a policy in decline around much of the world. It might be easy to attribute this to the nominally low public popularity of it, or to a general state of world peace, i.e. the Cold War is over, and the prospects for great-power conflicts have been rather dim for well over twenty years now. But I think technology is the real governing factor, even more than politics (and international politics in turn is shapes a great deal by technology, etc.). A little elaboration…
For much of the last five centuries, warfare has been defined by the invention of the ballistic projectile. Gunpowder and the ability to blast projectiles some distance away can create a lot of power, but this sort of technology is ultimately limited by its inaccuracy and limited range. As ballistic projectile weapons developed and became more powerful, ever-more massed armies of men were required to be fielded in order to project power with them, until the world saw the total-war formations of huge armies of men in the 19th and 20th Centuries.
But we’re at the dawn of an entirely new epoch of weaponry, one that has already begun to make ballistic projectiles and massed armies of troops as obsolete as gunpowder made swords obsolete around five centuries ago: the age of smart, precision ordinance. They first made their appearance on a few battlefields in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and they are increasingly dominating the course of warfare. As precision increases, so too will range (and speed) – all while the cost of using them remains remarkably low compared to the cost of fielding and protecting the spectacularly expensive late-generation weapons of the past.
So, in the more advanced militaries, manpower will continue to decline even when budgets remain constant. The US is the perfect example of this. And as military manpower requirements decline because of advancements in technology, the need for conscription declines as well.
There are of course some exceptions to this trend. Israel for example will remain a state with a small population with a need for a powerful military, so conscription policies are not likely to be cancelled there anytime soon. Russia also has a lot of geopolitical security requirements coupled with a death-spiral demographic problem, but there have been some mentions of the desire to end conscription, even though it shouldn’t be expected too soon.
Anyway, those are a few thoughts off the top of me head. I’ll be happy to refine or debate them.
