Heuristic (or quick and dirty) decision making works often enough in the real world, and in a timely manner. Enough for selection to ensure it is one of the cognitive modules frequently used by H. sapiens.
Can certainly be incorrect in particular situations, but that's not the point, at least in terms of explaining why humans use it so often. When time is available, sure, look deeper, use the tools of formal logic etc...
Common sense
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JimC
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Re: Common sense
Nurse, where the fuck's my cardigan?
And my gin!
And my gin!
Re: Common sense
Depends if you understand the probability or not. I would be more embarrassed about losing by sticking blindly to a 1 in 3 shot when there was an option to change to a 1 in 2 shot.Tero wrote:But common sense is not built that way. It is designed to stick to a decision. Because you picked a car and switched and now you are pissed off because you gave the car away.Azathoth wrote:Always swap. Basic probability not common senseTero wrote:Can't even solve the Monty Hall 3 door game.
Just losing a car is not as embarrassing. Somehow. Cause you stuck to your decision.
Outside the ordered universe is that amorphous blight of nethermost confusion which blasphemes and bubbles at the center of all infinity—the boundless daemon sultan Azathoth, whose name no lips dare speak aloud, and who gnaws hungrily in inconceivable, unlighted chambers beyond time and space amidst the muffled, maddening beating of vile drums and the thin monotonous whine of accursed flutes.
Code: Select all
// Replaces with spaces the braces in cases where braces in places cause stasis
$str = str_replace(array("\{","\}")," ",$str);
Re: Common sense
That's common sense for youAzathoth wrote:Depends if you understand the probability or not. I would be more embarrassed about losing by sticking blindly to a 1 in 3 shot when there was an option to change to a 1 in 2 shot.Tero wrote:But common sense is not built that way. It is designed to stick to a decision. Because you picked a car and switched and now you are pissed off because you gave the car away.Azathoth wrote:Always swap. Basic probability not common senseTero wrote:Can't even solve the Monty Hall 3 door game.
Just losing a car is not as embarrassing. Somehow. Cause you stuck to your decision.
, but understanding the probability makes it even worse, because you get a 2 in 3 chance by switching (the dealer has shown one empty box).The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool - Richard Feynman
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JimC
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Re: Common sense
Complex problems involving probability make my head hurt...
I've got to approach them slowly and calmly...
I've got to approach them slowly and calmly...
Nurse, where the fuck's my cardigan?
And my gin!
And my gin!
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mistermack
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Re: Common sense
I'm not sure about the crashing motorycle, and I've crahsed a few.
I don't remember ever having a choice, when it was actually going to crash. The bike decided that it had had enough of me holding on.
But if I'd hopped off every time I NEARLY lost control, I'd be in bits now.
I don't remember ever having a choice, when it was actually going to crash. The bike decided that it had had enough of me holding on.
But if I'd hopped off every time I NEARLY lost control, I'd be in bits now.
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Gawdzilla Sama
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Re: Common sense
Both times I've laid a bike down I've been very glad to get shed of the beast. "Motorcycle seatbelts", there's a reason you never see them.mistermack wrote:I'm not sure about the crashing motorycle, and I've crahsed a few.
I don't remember ever having a choice, when it was actually going to crash. The bike decided that it had had enough of me holding on.
But if I'd hopped off every time I NEARLY lost control, I'd be in bits now.
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