The Coronavirus Thread

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Brian Peacock
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:08 pm

Hermit wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:18 am
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:59 pm
What data are you using Jim? Fairy data?
Jim made a prediction, as in "looks likely to surpass". While statistics of future events are somewhat difficult to obtain, making a prediction based on extrapolating trends seen in recent ones is reasonable. In this instance, the Dutch ministry of health agrees that there is a significant increase of new infections. It reported in a recent bulletin (dated four days ago), that
5,427 new COVID-19 infections were reported over the past week by the Municipal Public Health Services (GGDs). The number of newly reported people who tested positive for COVID-19 is much higher than last week (3,597 people). The number of people who tested positive increased all across the Netherlands.
Other points it noted are that the biggest increase can be seen in the age category of 20-24 years old, and most people were infected at home.
Any info on the infection rate against the number of tests? At the beginning of the pandemic only people with symptoms and their immediate contacts were tested - now more people are getting tested speculatively as well as for monitoring purposes. Tracking the ratio between confirmed cases and test numbers might offer a better assessment of the situation than the sheer number of confirmed infections on their own. That ratio could then be applied as a constant to look at particular time-frames with a view to measuring of number of confirmed cases against the number of hospital admissions etc.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:11 pm

UK estimate R-rate at R1.2-1.7 - about the same level estimated for March this year.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by NineBerry » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:36 pm

There is no one single number to look at. It all depends on test strategies and relationship between the numbers.

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by JimC » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:41 pm

Testing here in pestilence central is still only for people with at least some symptoms (however mild), plus known contacts or people who have been in their vicinity. The authorities express concern about relatively low levels of testing - they ought to do more random tests of asymptomatic people...

However, our 14 day case average continues to slowly decline, which is something...
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Sean Hayden » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:49 pm

It's hard to stay motivated to pay attention at this point. The way I see it Americans have been thrown under the bus, and knowing the facts has proved alarmingly useless.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Svartalf » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:49 am

testing here is a circus... there are supposed to be about 10 large tents (like circus things, we call them 'barnums') erected in and around Paris to allow mass testing of the population, since the existing labs are swamped worse than the Everglades... I don't know about the 7 others, but it's been announced that the first 3 that were to go up in Paris proper will be delayed, for no reason I could manage to get... our nincompoop of a mayor is furious.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Hermit » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:36 am

Brian Peacock wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:08 pm
Hermit wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:18 am
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:59 pm
What data are you using Jim? Fairy data?
Jim made a prediction, as in "looks likely to surpass". While statistics of future events are somewhat difficult to obtain, making a prediction based on extrapolating trends seen in recent ones is reasonable. In this instance, the Dutch ministry of health agrees that there is a significant increase of new infections. It reported in a recent bulletin (dated four days ago), that
5,427 new COVID-19 infections were reported over the past week by the Municipal Public Health Services (GGDs). The number of newly reported people who tested positive for COVID-19 is much higher than last week (3,597 people). The number of people who tested positive increased all across the Netherlands.
Other points it noted are that the biggest increase can be seen in the age category of 20-24 years old, and most people were infected at home.
Any info on the infection rate against the number of tests? At the beginning of the pandemic only people with symptoms and their immediate contacts were tested - now more people are getting tested speculatively as well as for monitoring purposes. Tracking the ratio between confirmed cases and test numbers might offer a better assessment of the situation than the sheer number of confirmed infections on their own. That ratio could then be applied as a constant to look at particular time-frames with a view to measuring of number of confirmed cases against the number of hospital admissions etc.
While the number of tests have increased from under 25,000 in week 11 to well over 175,000 in week 35 the percentage of positive results has dropped from 30% to 2.4%. It does not look as though the increased number of tests reveal a drastically different view of the virus's spread.

Image

Chart obtained from https://allecijfers.nl/nieuws/statistie ... rona_tests, which created it using data provided by the Dutch ministry of health.


One important, positive development, often overlooked, is that the ratios of people with the virus who die from it, finish up in an intensive care ward or are even just admitted to hospital has dropped dramatically. This would indicate that the more malevolent strains of the COVID-19 virus either kill their hosts or the host is successfully isolated before they can spread to the next one.

This excellent dashboard, also based on data provided by the Dutch ministry of health, illustrates it really well. Look at the chart titled "New confirmed cases by day" and compare its shape to those of the ones titled "New hospitalized by day" and "New deaths by day" directly underneath it,
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by JimC » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:18 am

A recent article in NewScientist discussed the reducing death rate, and canvassed a number of possibilities, including an evolutionary change in the virus biology, but also other possible factors such as a reduction in the proportion of highly susceptible people (who died in the first wave) or simply much better medical techniques, such as steroids for the OTT inflammation...
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Sean Hayden » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:27 am

(CNN)A coronavirus outbreak at a popular Bavarian ski resort has been linked to a US citizen working at a lodge operated by the US Army, German authorities said Monday.

The state prosecution service in Munich said it had launched an investigation into an American who may have caused the surge in cases.
"There is an investigation for possible assault through negligence," said Andrea Meyer, from the state prosecutor's
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:51 am

NineBerry wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:20 pm
There's no paranoia. The ICU capacities are already close to full again in some parts of France.
All five intensive care beds dedicated to COVID patients are in use at the Laveran Military Training Hospital in Marseille, and its doctors are bracing for more.

It’s a small ward in a mid-sized hospital, but what’s happening here reflects growing pressure on medical facilities across France as infections resurge.

[...]

Doctors in Marseille — the country’s latest virus hotspot — started sounding the alarm this week. The 70 ICU beds dedicated to virus patients in France’s second-biggest city and the surrounding Bouches-du-Rhone region were all occupied by Tuesday. The number of ICU virus patients in the region has doubled in the past 10 days and now surpasses 100.

[...]
https://apnews.com/41c2741ba71ef7457caaaa3183dccd01
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:58 am

Yeah, keep the fairy data coming!
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by rainbow » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:11 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:42 pm
Some dont that is the problem and they just love to keep the paranoia going.
The Illuminati-controlled Dutch Government is lying to you. :nervous: :nervous: :nervous: :nervous:
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:15 am

It's hard to keep up. On one hand the Netherregions is a social democracy paradise, and on the other it's governed by authoritarians who want to control the populace with stringent restrictions.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:37 am

It is quite amazing how the Netherlands is the focus of such attention here. I dont mind as we seem to according to official figures not doing too badly using limited restrictions. Our schools and universities are functioning without masks. Care homes are fairly back to normal. Life generally is returning back slowly to pre Covid levels.
It is not the number cases but what happens to them. We are testing more and more as Hermit has shown while hospital admissions of Covid cases are stable as are deaths. Lessons have been learnt and protocols put in place. The treatment of Covid patients has really improved since the introduction of the medicine cocktail which has drastically reduced hospital stay.
We only have one class of patient and everybody is treated the same. We dont have "private" patients or "private" clinics catering for one group of the population. Maybe that is contributory factor.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:44 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:37 am
we seem to according to official figures not doing too badly using limited restrictions.
You're one of the worst in Europe. :fp:
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