The Coronavirus Thread

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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by JimC » Sat May 23, 2020 8:59 pm

As to the Irish thing, aside from them not understanding the potential for exponential growth (at a higher rate than most infectious diseases) the key is that there will be many, many more infected people than the "active cases", with either mild or no symptoms, all potential causes of little clusters which then grow exponentially.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Cunt » Sat May 23, 2020 9:12 pm

Florida opened up, New York tightened down.

How did their empericals look a few weeks later?
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat May 23, 2020 9:34 pm

Brian Peacock wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 4:25 pm
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
That's accepting the data is accurate which it is not.
I've asked you many times to justify this claim. I still don't think you've done much to meet that challenge, even though I'm more than happy to qualify my remarks and admit that data sources are less than complete at this time.
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
You cant say bugger all Brian. This is the same stupid smoke screen put up by governments.
You sound angry. Why?
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
We dont even know what a Covid 19 death is.
Yes we do, and your previous statements to the same effect simply do not make rational sense. I've explained what comorbidities are and reminded you that people without underlying health conditions are also dying. And as I've said before, when someone with an immune deficiently contracts an infection like pneumonia and dies we don't ignore the immune deficiently. Similarly we don't ignore SARS-CoV-2, and to do so during this crisis is not only misinformed, but misleading and a detriment to public health.
And once again repeating a load of crap Brian. The data is not sound as I have explained so often. You do love the kool aid dont you? Keep drinking it like your government tells you.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by laklak » Sat May 23, 2020 9:55 pm

Our daily new case numbers are up, but so is testing (averaging over 20,000 new tests a day). Hospitalizations and deaths are down. So far so good. We did a fuckton better in the nursing homes than New York. In fact we just did a fuckton better than New York, period. but that's down to (IMO) luck of the draw and the lack of New York City, or "Hell With An Indecipherable Accent", as I call it.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Sat May 23, 2020 9:56 pm

@Scot. You're just repeating your blind assertions again I'm afraid. And I don't think looking to peer reviewed papers qualifies as 'kool aid' unless one's a science denier.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Hermit » Sun May 24, 2020 3:50 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:34 pm
The data is not sound as I have explained so often.
You have often asserted that the data are not sound, but never explained how so. For instance, in response to this:
Hermit wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 8:32 am
JimC wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 5:30 am
there is already evidence (via death statistic comparisons from year to year) that the true death rate from the virus is higher than shown by the reported figures, in that deaths of the elderly and poor in many countries do not involve checking for Covid-19...
The Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport via its National Institute for Public Health and the Environment reported much the same late last month.
The actual number of deaths from the novel coronavirus in the Netherlands is higher than the reported numbers that RIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment publishes daily. RIVM and Statistics Netherlands (CBS) monitor the mortality rates in the Netherlands. Not all people who die in the Netherlands have been tested for COVID-19. The total number of deaths per week as reported to Statistics Netherlands - regardless of the cause of death - provides an overview of the situation in the Netherlands.

Since a few weeks, excess mortality is seen in the Netherlands. The rising higher mortality coincides with the start of the coronavirus epidemic in the Netherlands. A significant part of the excess mortality is expected to be related to COVID-19. Which part that is will become clear later on in the cause of death registration. In the third week of April, data from CBS and RIVM show that excess mortality is decreasing.

In the week from Thursday 9 April to Wednesday 15 April 2020 inclusive, total mortality in the Netherlands significantly increased (mortality reported within two weeks - around 97%). A total of 4,500 deaths were reported; this count is usually between 2,654 and 2,959 deaths. This is between 1,541 and 1,846 more deaths than the expected average this time of year. This count is about twice as high as the reported deaths from laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in the same week (876). Mortality was slightly increased in the 55-64 age group and sharply increased in the 65-74 age group and 75 years and older.

Image
you simply replied
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 9:07 am
Nevermind. Which deaths are due to the virus? We dont know. That is very much the discussion here. We dont know actual deaths. A Coronas death here is only when the patient has tested positive and then the virus is only a contributory factor and may not be the cause of death.
Hermit those figures have long been dismissed as inaccurate.
You should have quoted who dismissed those figures as inaccurate and by what method. The fact is that we don't need to know which deaths are due to the the corona virus. All we need to know how many people died on average in any particular correspondent week of previous years before the virus existed and subtract that number from the number of deaths of that week this year. Using this method the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport via its National Institute for Public Health and the Environment came to this conclusion:
In the week from Thursday 9 April to Wednesday 15 April 2020 inclusive, total mortality in the Netherlands significantly increased (mortality reported within two weeks - around 97%). A total of 4,500 deaths were reported; this count is usually between 2,654 and 2,959 deaths. This is between 1,541 and 1,846 more deaths than the expected average this time of year. This count is about twice as high as the reported deaths from laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in the same week (876). Mortality was slightly increased in the 55-64 age group and sharply increased in the 65-74 age group and 75 years and older.
You have yet to reveal who dismissed those figures as inaccurate, and how they went about showing they were wrong. Until then that remarkably steep and high spike at the end of the chart can only be explained by the existence of the corona virus.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun May 24, 2020 4:30 am

Why do you always refer to the Netherlands data which has been admitted by the RIVM as not accurate due to reporting and recording. Look at the other countries reporting. Is it accurate? Not by any stretch of the imagination. They are often politically motivated as in the USA or are unable to see that. Have you had any dealings in data collection on a world scale? If you did you would understand it is far from finite art. I and many like me do not take government figures as gospel as you do.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Hermit » Sun May 24, 2020 5:14 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:30 am
Why do you always refer to the Netherlands data which has been admitted by the RIVM as not accurate due to reporting and recording.
I provided quotes with links from the RIVM. If you can find a link where the RIVM contradicts itself, provide it. Thank you.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Sun May 24, 2020 9:20 am

ONS Data on registered deaths in England and Wales for March 2020 suggest mortality rates were c.14% higher than the five-year average across the board, and c.60% higher in the over 65s. Figures for April will be released on 28 May, but a quick scan of the provisional weekly figures suggest that those %s are unlikely to improve.

But Scot's point is that we shouldn't trust any form of mortality data because politicians throw their sticky paws in and meddle with it to make the numbers apppear smaller, so they look like they're doing a great job, and at the same time bigger, so we accept their authoritarian control measures. You see, our own uncertainties are never anything to do with us and always the result of somebody else's manipulation.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Sun May 24, 2020 9:36 am

If the spike in deaths across the world are not down to Covid-19 then it means that some other, unknown agent is responsible - and then we're really really fucked, because I don't think even the combined resources of the CIA, MI5, MSS, FSB, and Mossad can find enough suicide volunteers or hire enough actors to cry on tv for a hashtag-false-flag operation on that scale. If only The Great Galaxian hadn't died from the 'Rona too - then we'd know the truth.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 pm

Brian Peacock wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 9:20 am
ONS Data on registered deaths in England and Wales for March 2020 suggest mortality rates were c.14% higher than the five-year average across the board, and c.60% higher in the over 65s. Figures for April will be released on 28 May, but a quick scan of the provisional weekly figures suggest that those %s are unlikely to improve.

But Scot's point is that we shouldn't trust any form of mortality data because politicians throw their sticky paws in and meddle with it to make the numbers apppear smaller, so they look like they're doing a great job, and at the same time bigger, so we accept their authoritarian control measures. You see, our own uncertainties are never anything to do with us and always the result of somebody else's manipulation.
My personal experience in collecting global and national data has made me very sceptical. Why is issuing daily data so important?
The RIVM Hermit state always that deaths attributed to the virus are only those who have been tested and confirmed positive. Also a qualification is always added that reporting can be delayed which accounts for a sudden jump in any of the figures. The only real figure that they say is accurate are the numbers in Intensive Care simply because they are absolute numbers; patients are in or out.
Now if the Dutch government has problems and we have little corruption in this country how about countries where governments are more corrupt ie. Asian, African and American governments (North, Middle and South).

The USA and Chinese government at all levels at the present moment has very little or zero trust. The data from Africa is fantasy. The niece of my late girlfriend working in Tanzania as neurologist in the main hospital there confirmed this in her last news letter. The have only a few testing kits and even fewer masks.

I am not into conspiracies but extremely sceptical over this data and I dont like the way it being used to impose on sections of societies unnecessary measures that might be made permanent. I also dont adhere to the Trump camp. The draconian measures put in place is not suitable or necessary for all countries. The social living and hygiene conditions of China are hardly found in Europe. We dont slaughter live wild animals in public places for instance and would never be acceptable here. It was a very much a knee jerk reaction by most governments and one that has wrecked our economies and social systems.

Was it worth it?
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Hermit » Sun May 24, 2020 6:54 pm

Hermit wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:14 am
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:30 am
Why do you always refer to the Netherlands data which has been admitted by the RIVM as not accurate due to reporting and recording.
I provided quotes with links from the RIVM. If you can find a link where the RIVM contradicts itself, provide it. Thank you.
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 pm
My personal experience in collecting global and national data has made me very sceptical.
No links then. You got nothing.
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Cunt » Sun May 24, 2020 8:25 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 pm
...I dont like the way it being used to impose on sections of societies unnecessary measures that might be made permanent. I also dont adhere to the Trump camp....
Trump stepped aside, and let state governments deal with it the way they thought best.

There are 50 experiments going on, to test the theories about how politics affect numbers, policy and outcomes.

For instance, are Democrat-governed states more likely to have stricter lockdowns?

Is the party with stricter lockdowns going to show more positive outcomes?
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by JimC » Sun May 24, 2020 9:05 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 pm
Brian Peacock wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 9:20 am
ONS Data on registered deaths in England and Wales for March 2020 suggest mortality rates were c.14% higher than the five-year average across the board, and c.60% higher in the over 65s. Figures for April will be released on 28 May, but a quick scan of the provisional weekly figures suggest that those %s are unlikely to improve.

But Scot's point is that we shouldn't trust any form of mortality data because politicians throw their sticky paws in and meddle with it to make the numbers apppear smaller, so they look like they're doing a great job, and at the same time bigger, so we accept their authoritarian control measures. You see, our own uncertainties are never anything to do with us and always the result of somebody else's manipulation.
My personal experience in collecting global and national data has made me very sceptical. Why is issuing daily data so important?
The RIVM Hermit state always that deaths attributed to the virus are only those who have been tested and confirmed positive. Also a qualification is always added that reporting can be delayed which accounts for a sudden jump in any of the figures. The only real figure that they say is accurate are the numbers in Intensive Care simply because they are absolute numbers; patients are in or out.
Now if the Dutch government has problems and we have little corruption in this country how about countries where governments are more corrupt ie. Asian, African and American governments (North, Middle and South).

The USA and Chinese government at all levels at the present moment has very little or zero trust. The data from Africa is fantasy. The niece of my late girlfriend working in Tanzania as neurologist in the main hospital there confirmed this in her last news letter. The have only a few testing kits and even fewer masks.

I am not into conspiracies but extremely sceptical over this data and I dont like the way it being used to impose on sections of societies unnecessary measures that might be made permanent. I also dont adhere to the Trump camp. The draconian measures put in place is not suitable or necessary for all countries. The social living and hygiene conditions of China are hardly found in Europe. We dont slaughter live wild animals in public places for instance and would never be acceptable here. It was a very much a knee jerk reaction by most governments and one that has wrecked our economies and social systems.

Was it worth it?
There seems to be two distinct issues in this post.

One, clearly, is that you are skeptical of government data. I think perhaps you are over-skeptical, but there is no doubt that the figures are by no means perfect, either through the difficulty of gathering it in the first place, or in some cases, actual corruption. However, it is highly likely that both sources of error actually understate both the number of infected people, and the number of deaths, in most countries. No government would wish to deliberately over-inflate their numbers. This tends to work against your clear feeling that the severity of the pandemic has been overblown.

The second issue seems to be a case of railing against the lock-down type measures that most governments have introduced. When you look at the effects on countries that introduced them too late, then you see the virtue of putting them in hard and early (like Oz and NZ) and then being in a good position to slowly relax without creating further spikes. The thing is, Scot, that these measures are recommended by the vast majority of experienced health professionals, working with as much scientific authority as is possible. Sorry, but I'm going to take their word for what measures are optimum, rather than amateur opinions...
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Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Seabass » Sun May 24, 2020 9:53 pm

A couple interesting articles comparing NY's handling of the outbreak vs California's and Washington State's. tl;dr version: CA and WA listened to the experts, then reacted quickly, while NY let politics get in the way. In fairness, NYC is far more densely populated than anything in CA or WA, but there is no doubt that the late response exacerbated the problem...


Two Coasts. One Virus. How New York Suffered Nearly 10 Times the Number of Deaths as California.
California’s governor and San Francisco’s mayor worked together to act early in confronting the COVID threat. For Andrew Cuomo and Bill de Blasio, it was a different story, and 27,000 New Yorkers have died so far.
https://www.propublica.org/article/two- ... california


Seattle’s Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New York’s Did Not
The initial coronavirus outbreaks on the East and West Coasts emerged at roughly the same time. But the danger was communicated very differently.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020 ... ks-did-not
"His primary rules were: never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it." —From the OSS’s psychological profile of Adolf Hitler

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