The Coronavirus Thread

Post Reply
User avatar
Brian Peacock
Tipping cows since 1946
Posts: 27341
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:44 am
About me: Ablate me:
Location: Location: Location:
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Thu May 21, 2020 7:36 pm

The UK is the second largest contributor to the WHO - I guess that makes us the top donor now - to the tune of c.£340m ($404m US). Now, whether masks are good or bad? There's only one way to find out...

Image
Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
Details on how to do that can be found here.

.

"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

Frank Zappa

"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
.

User avatar
Scot Dutchy
Posts: 13902
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 2:07 pm
About me: Dijkbeschermer
Location: 's-Gravenhage, Nederland
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Fri May 22, 2020 6:37 am

Image
"Wat is het een gezellig boel hier".

User avatar
Brian Peacock
Tipping cows since 1946
Posts: 27341
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:44 am
About me: Ablate me:
Location: Location: Location:
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Fri May 22, 2020 2:01 pm

Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
Details on how to do that can be found here.

.

"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

Frank Zappa

"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
.

User avatar
Animavore
Nasty Hombre
Posts: 38865
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:26 am
Location: Ire Land.
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Animavore » Sat May 23, 2020 9:06 am

Can someone tell me what's wrong with this?
So I've worked out that in Ireland right now, we have 1807 active cases of corona virus out of 5 million people. That means the chances of you even bumping into anyone with the virus is 0.03614% and that's if all those people are out walking about. They're not, they're most likely self isolating or in hospital which brings the risk of you bumping into anyone with it down even lower than 0.03614%. Let's assume even one third of those active 1807 cases are walking about then the odds of bumping into someone who has the virus is even lower at 0.012%. Just think about that for a min, how low those odds actually are that you meet someone with it. Then let's say you do meet someone who does has the virus by some miracle, you then need to catch it from them which will only happen if they cough at you or somehow get it by being with that person (According to the HSE that needs to be approx 10-15mins). Now let's say you have the virus, the chances of you dying 6.496% and that's assuming you're most likely over 70 (I know younger people have died but it's so low, you've more chance of winning the lottery). So chances are you will not even bump into anyone who has it, no mind get it and if u do get it then you've a 94% chance of surviving (actually 99.9%) if under 50. In my opinion we should be opening the country back up fully. The statistics prove it. You actually have more chance of winning the lottery than catching this virus and dying. People know the risks now like any other disease. So let's be realistic here and get the country back open. Nobody is being forced to go back to a pub or restaurant, it should be your choice. If u feel or are afraid of getting the virus or have a medical condition then stay home but for most people it's safe. Smoking causes 100 deaths a week in Ireland (More than Corona Virus, that would be 2,100 deaths so far this year alone) but you don't see the government banning the sale of cigarettes now, do you? If you buy a packet of cigarettes and get cancer then that's the chance you take and if someone with an underlying issue goes out and mixes with crowds then that's the chance they take that they might contract the virus, people know this now and should have that choice. Also, the death rate of 1592 which is 6% of the cases confirmed, most of them, actually nearly all of them were front line workers in the hospitals or old people in care homes. So with all those statistics in mind, do you really think we should be hiding at home and keeping our country closed?
"[Donald Trump] a symbol of renewed white identity and common purpose".
- New Zealand mosque shooter.

User avatar
pErvinalia
Off his meds
Posts: 52497
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:08 pm
About me: Spelling 'were' 'where'
Location: dystopia
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by pErvinalia » Sat May 23, 2020 9:08 am

It's like a Scot Dutchy "argument".
Sent from my penis using wankertalk.
"The Western world is fucking awesome because of mostly white men" - DaveDodo007.
"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
"Seth you are a boon to this community" - Cunt.
"My penis is VERY small" - Cunt.

User avatar
Animavore
Nasty Hombre
Posts: 38865
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:26 am
Location: Ire Land.
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Animavore » Sat May 23, 2020 9:10 am

pErvinalia wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:08 am
It's like a Scot Dutchy "argument".
Ok, but I need an actual response.
"[Donald Trump] a symbol of renewed white identity and common purpose".
- New Zealand mosque shooter.

User avatar
pErvinalia
Off his meds
Posts: 52497
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:08 pm
About me: Spelling 'were' 'where'
Location: dystopia
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by pErvinalia » Sat May 23, 2020 9:11 am

Exponential growth.
Sent from my penis using wankertalk.
"The Western world is fucking awesome because of mostly white men" - DaveDodo007.
"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
"Seth you are a boon to this community" - Cunt.
"My penis is VERY small" - Cunt.

User avatar
pErvinalia
Off his meds
Posts: 52497
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:08 pm
About me: Spelling 'were' 'where'
Location: dystopia
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by pErvinalia » Sat May 23, 2020 9:14 am

And the reason the odds are so small is because of the measures we've taken. Without them the odds would be much higher.
Sent from my penis using wankertalk.
"The Western world is fucking awesome because of mostly white men" - DaveDodo007.
"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
"Seth you are a boon to this community" - Cunt.
"My penis is VERY small" - Cunt.

User avatar
Scot Dutchy
Posts: 13902
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 2:07 pm
About me: Dijkbeschermer
Location: 's-Gravenhage, Nederland
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat May 23, 2020 11:16 am

Animavore wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:10 am
pErvinalia wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:08 am
It's like a Scot Dutchy "argument".
Ok, but I need an actual response.
It is just what I have been saying all along. Each country is almost unique. Ireland has 5 million people in an land area that is double this country. Australia is so big it is automatically self isolating. What governments have been doing is advocating 'one size fits all' measures which is far from the truth. The figures are so low that what was predicted by the early models has not happened. The forecast was for 200 million deaths world wide! We have not reached half a million and that is accepting that the present data is accurate which is now largely far from the case.
Does anyone accept that Bangladesh has only a few hundred deaths? They dont even have and organised health service as is the case in most African countries.
We have never had an agreed protocol on what is a COVID 19 death or which deaths can be attributed to the virus.
Everything is political as is in Ireland. Your government is on hold since the last elections and by imposing such ludicrous measures most cant even remember the result.
My wife and I have not heard of one person dying from the virus. My wife's social network is not small. We have the same story of 6000 in a country of 17 million. As you say the chance of meeting anyone with the virus is far less than winning the Lotto.
Luckily this realisation is reaching more and more of the society. The easing of measures has been speeded up by months. What is happening per the first of June was planned for October.
"Wat is het een gezellig boel hier".

User avatar
Brian Peacock
Tipping cows since 1946
Posts: 27341
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:44 am
About me: Ablate me:
Location: Location: Location:
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Sat May 23, 2020 2:06 pm

Animavore wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:06 am
Can someone tell me what's wrong with this?
So I've worked out that in Ireland right now, we have 1807 active cases of corona virus out of 5 million people. That means the chances of you even bumping into anyone with the virus is 0.03614% and that's if all those people are out walking about. They're not, they're most likely self isolating or in hospital which brings the risk of you bumping into anyone with it down even lower than 0.03614%. Let's assume even one third of those active 1807 cases are walking about then the odds of bumping into someone who has the virus is even lower at 0.012%. Just think about that for a min, how low those odds actually are that you meet someone with it. Then let's say you do meet someone who does has the virus by some miracle, you then need to catch it from them which will only happen if they cough at you or somehow get it by being with that person (According to the HSE that needs to be approx 10-15mins). Now let's say you have the virus, the chances of you dying 6.496% and that's assuming you're most likely over 70 (I know younger people have died but it's so low, you've more chance of winning the lottery). So chances are you will not even bump into anyone who has it, no mind get it and if u do get it then you've a 94% chance of surviving (actually 99.9%) if under 50. In my opinion we should be opening the country back up fully. The statistics prove it. You actually have more chance of winning the lottery than catching this virus and dying. People know the risks now like any other disease. So let's be realistic here and get the country back open. Nobody is being forced to go back to a pub or restaurant, it should be your choice. If u feel or are afraid of getting the virus or have a medical condition then stay home but for most people it's safe. Smoking causes 100 deaths a week in Ireland (More than Corona Virus, that would be 2,100 deaths so far this year alone) but you don't see the government banning the sale of cigarettes now, do you? If you buy a packet of cigarettes and get cancer then that's the chance you take and if someone with an underlying issue goes out and mixes with crowds then that's the chance they take that they might contract the virus, people know this now and should have that choice. Also, the death rate of 1592 which is 6% of the cases confirmed, most of them, actually nearly all of them were front line workers in the hospitals or old people in care homes. So with all those statistics in mind, do you really think we should be hiding at home and keeping our country closed?
The infectiousness of the virus remains the same. If all 5 million were out and about doing regular stuff then the R-number (re-infection number) of the virus, R-3.2-4.8, would undoubtedly be expressed in the population at large. Taking the conservative lower figure of 3.2 there, this would mean that if 1000 people were infected on day one they would be likely to infect 3200 others, meaning 4200 would then be infected. The next day those 4200 people would infect 13,440 more, increasing the number of infected to 17,640. The third day would see a total of 74,089 infected. 311,173 people on day four, 1,306,929 on day five, and 5,489,102 on day six.

Now I know this looks like everyone in Ireland would be infected within a week but this is only a mathematical model. In reality not everyone in the country is in contact with everybody else and not every 'contact' would necessarily result in cross-infection. So the numbers are likely to be a lot lower than the model, and by a statistically significant amount. Nonetheless, I still think it demonstrates the seriousness of the situation, particularly given that it takes between 1-3 weeks for symptoms to develop, that the jury is still out on whether prior infection enhances resistance to subsequent infections, and that many people contract the virus, and are therefore infectious, without displaying any symptoms at all. Also, with the Covid-19 mortality rate among confirmed cases starting to coalesce internationally around the 4-5% mark then giving the virus, say, a two- to three-week burn through the population could lead to an awful lot of dead people in a relatively short amount of time before a long tailing off period from that high peak. (edit: As the UK's experience demonstrates).
Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
Details on how to do that can be found here.

.

"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

Frank Zappa

"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
.

User avatar
Scot Dutchy
Posts: 13902
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 2:07 pm
About me: Dijkbeschermer
Location: 's-Gravenhage, Nederland
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm

That's accepting the data is accurate which it is not. You cant say bugger all Brian. This is the same stupid smoke screen put up by governments. We dont even know what a Covid 19 death is.
"Wat is het een gezellig boel hier".

User avatar
Cunt
Lumpy Vagina Bloodfart
Posts: 11176
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2009 3:10 am
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Cunt » Sat May 23, 2020 3:51 pm

People who think they disagree, often do not.

Case in point, Brian Peacock and Scot Dutchy, you both think you disagree, but if you really did, you could bet on something, where there would be a clear 'winner and loser', defining who was correct.

My guess is that you two couldn't agree on what to risk a bet on, which suggests you don't disagree as much as you think you do.
Shit, Piss, Cock, Cunt, Motherfucker, Cocksucker and Tits.
-various artists
Adults have no good arguments for a longer waistband, but it's hilarious to watch some make them anyway.

User avatar
Brian Peacock
Tipping cows since 1946
Posts: 27341
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:44 am
About me: Ablate me:
Location: Location: Location:
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Brian Peacock » Sat May 23, 2020 4:25 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
That's accepting the data is accurate which it is not.
I've asked you many times to justify this claim. I still don't think you've done much to meet that challenge, even though I'm more than happy to qualify my remarks and admit that data sources are less than complete at this time.
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
You cant say bugger all Brian. This is the same stupid smoke screen put up by governments.
You sound angry. Why?
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
We dont even know what a Covid 19 death is.
Yes we do, and your previous statements to the same effect simply do not make rational sense. I've explained what comorbidities are and reminded you that people without underlying health conditions are also dying. And as I've said before, when someone with an immune deficiently contracts an infection like pneumonia and dies we don't ignore the immune deficiently. Similarly we don't ignore SARS-CoV-2, and to do so during this crisis is not only misinformed, but misleading and a detriment to public health.
Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
Details on how to do that can be found here.

.

"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

Frank Zappa

"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
.

User avatar
Alan B
Posts: 946
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 12:53 pm
Location: Birmingham, UK.
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Alan B » Sat May 23, 2020 5:04 pm

Just watched the science here:
BBC Horizon Part 1
BBC Horizon Part 2

I prefer this to any venal political crap.
Absolute faith corrupts as absolutely as absolute power - Eric Hoffer.
I have NO BELIEF in the existence of a God or gods. I do not have to offer proof nor do I have to determine absence of proof because I do not ASSERT that a God does or does not or gods do or do not exist.

User avatar
Cunt
Lumpy Vagina Bloodfart
Posts: 11176
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2009 3:10 am
Contact:

Re: The Coronavirus Thread

Post by Cunt » Sat May 23, 2020 7:05 pm

:thinks: Low quality bait.

Guys... don't fall for this. Someone tricked me into searching for 'BBC' once before. It's a porn thing.
Shit, Piss, Cock, Cunt, Motherfucker, Cocksucker and Tits.
-various artists
Adults have no good arguments for a longer waistband, but it's hilarious to watch some make them anyway.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 7 guests