The Coronavirus Thread

[Scot Dutchy]

Isolationism never works and she forgot the vital part of the script; vaccination.

Once Covid world-beaters, the mood in New Zealand is changing – and Jacinda Ardern knows it

Frustration in Auckland has been rising and the cabinet would have been aware it risked losing the crowd

ne of the many quotes attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte that he probably never said, was that he preferred his generals lucky, rather than able. When it’s a matter of life and death, “give me lucky generals,” he’s reputed to have pleaded.

It’s a view that New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern echoed this week when she announced that Auckland – home to about a third of all New Zealanders – was moving out of the strict level 4 lockdown to level 3. Replace “generals” with “policy” and you get a pretty accurate sense of cabinet’s big call this week. In a country that has essentially tattooed “go hard, go early” on to one collective arm and “stay home, stay safe” on to the other, the decision to let about 300,000 people go back to their places of work when Auckland’s still getting 15-30 cases a day in the community is a turning point in the government’s approach to this pandemic. Both in public health terms and politically. A year ago, public opinion wouldn’t have worn such faith in “lucky generals”. But that was a year ago.

Some have declared cabinet’s decision the end of New Zealand’s elimination strategy. Some – ignoring the evidence of just 27 dead and our distinctly not overwhelmed hospital wards – claim it’s proof elimination and lockdowns haven’t worked.

Others, including Ardern and her cabinet colleagues, insist level 3 is still all about elimination. But the language has undeniably changed. The strictly evidence-led approach of the past 18 months is muted and this week the language of luck has stuck out like one of Napoleon’s bicorne hats.

In truth New Zealand’s ridden its luck a lot this pandemic. The failure to properly test border staff, people escaping MIQs but never spreading the disease, the slow initial vaccine rollout that side-lined GPs, dithering on salvia testing and purpose-built quarantine centres … yeah, luck has always been part of the story, alongside getting the big calls right. But this is different.

This week just about every epidemiologist has used the words “calculated risk” and epidemiologist Michael Baker said flat out, “it’s a gamble”. Covid-19 response minister Chris Hipkins was reduced to insisting that, “We’ve still got a very good shot at getting down to zero [community cases]”.

You cant eliminate Covid only vaccinate. Try telling that to Fernlanders.

[Brian Peacock]

Isolationism never works and she forgot the vital part of the script; vaccination.

Once Covid world-beaters, the mood in New Zealand is changing – and Jacinda Ardern knows it

Frustration in Auckland has been rising and the cabinet would have been aware it risked losing the crowd

ne of the many quotes attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte that he probably never said, was that he preferred his generals lucky, rather than able. When it’s a matter of life and death, “give me lucky generals,” he’s reputed to have pleaded.

It’s a view that New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern echoed this week when she announced that Auckland – home to about a third of all New Zealanders – was moving out of the strict level 4 lockdown to level 3. Replace “generals” with “policy” and you get a pretty accurate sense of cabinet’s big call this week. In a country that has essentially tattooed “go hard, go early” on to one collective arm and “stay home, stay safe” on to the other, the decision to let about 300,000 people go back to their places of work when Auckland’s still getting 15-30 cases a day in the community is a turning point in the government’s approach to this pandemic. Both in public health terms and politically. A year ago, public opinion wouldn’t have worn such faith in “lucky generals”. But that was a year ago.

Some have declared cabinet’s decision the end of New Zealand’s elimination strategy. Some – ignoring the evidence of just 27 dead and our distinctly not overwhelmed hospital wards – claim it’s proof elimination and lockdowns haven’t worked.

Others, including Ardern and her cabinet colleagues, insist level 3 is still all about elimination. But the language has undeniably changed. The strictly evidence-led approach of the past 18 months is muted and this week the language of luck has stuck out like one of Napoleon’s bicorne hats.

In truth New Zealand’s ridden its luck a lot this pandemic. The failure to properly test border staff, people escaping MIQs but never spreading the disease, the slow initial vaccine rollout that side-lined GPs, dithering on salvia testing and purpose-built quarantine centres … yeah, luck has always been part of the story, alongside getting the big calls right. But this is different.

This week just about every epidemiologist has used the words “calculated risk” and epidemiologist Michael Baker said flat out, “it’s a gamble”. Covid-19 response minister Chris Hipkins was reduced to insisting that, “We’ve still got a very good shot at getting down to zero [community cases]”.

You cant eliminate Covid only vaccinate. Try telling that to Fernlanders.

So what should you do while waiting for the vaccines to be developed, tested, manufactured and rolled-out?

[pErvinalia]

Places that got hit hard early (like Netherlands) have high vaccination rates. Places that didn't experience the pandemic the population are lax in getting vaccinations. Human character flaw.

[macdoc]

do exactly what they have done

Jacinda Ardern looks to life beyond lockdowns with 90% vaccination target

News that jabs may soon be approved for children could allow New Zealand to achieve milestone, experts say, but equality in access must be improved

New Zealand experts say country can achieve 90% Covid vaccination target.
Jacinda Ardern wants to make New Zealand a world leader in Covid vaccinations, inoculating 90% of the population, but experts warn there will be challenges ahead as the prime minister seeks to find a way to take the harshest lockdowns “out of the toolbox”.

Ardern’s aim to make the population one of the most vaccinated in the world may seem ambitious but it was made as Covid modellers warned that anything less could result in 7,000 deaths, and 60,000 hospitalisations in the event of a community outbreak.

So far, New Zealand has recorded a total of just 27 deaths.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ion-target

New Zealand has a very high rate of attraction for visitors and they are soveriegn nation making the rules.

Queensland and other states have a reasonable chance of continuing zero covid while opening restrictions and tracing everyone. It becomes entirely second nature to point the camera.
No registration ...no service.
Really fucking simple.

[rainbow]

do exactly what they have done

Jacinda Ardern looks to life beyond lockdowns with 90% vaccination target

News that jabs may soon be approved for children could allow New Zealand to achieve milestone, experts say, but equality in access must be improved

New Zealand experts say country can achieve 90% Covid vaccination target.
Jacinda Ardern wants to make New Zealand a world leader in Covid vaccinations, inoculating 90% of the population, but experts warn there will be challenges ahead as the prime minister seeks to find a way to take the harshest lockdowns “out of the toolbox”.

Ardern’s aim to make the population one of the most vaccinated in the world may seem ambitious but it was made as Covid modellers warned that anything less could result in 7,000 deaths, and 60,000 hospitalisations in the event of a community outbreak.

So far, New Zealand has recorded a total of just 27 deaths.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ion-target

New Zealand has a very high rate of attraction for visitors and they are soveriegn nation making the rules.

Queensland and other states have a reasonable chance of continuing zero covid while opening restrictions and tracing everyone. It becomes entirely second nature to point the camera.
No registration ...no service.
Really fucking simple.

Comminizm

[Scot Dutchy]

Isolationism never works and she forgot the vital part of the script; vaccination.

Once Covid world-beaters, the mood in New Zealand is changing – and Jacinda Ardern knows it

Frustration in Auckland has been rising and the cabinet would have been aware it risked losing the crowd

ne of the many quotes attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte that he probably never said, was that he preferred his generals lucky, rather than able. When it’s a matter of life and death, “give me lucky generals,” he’s reputed to have pleaded.

It’s a view that New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern echoed this week when she announced that Auckland – home to about a third of all New Zealanders – was moving out of the strict level 4 lockdown to level 3. Replace “generals” with “policy” and you get a pretty accurate sense of cabinet’s big call this week. In a country that has essentially tattooed “go hard, go early” on to one collective arm and “stay home, stay safe” on to the other, the decision to let about 300,000 people go back to their places of work when Auckland’s still getting 15-30 cases a day in the community is a turning point in the government’s approach to this pandemic. Both in public health terms and politically. A year ago, public opinion wouldn’t have worn such faith in “lucky generals”. But that was a year ago.

Some have declared cabinet’s decision the end of New Zealand’s elimination strategy. Some – ignoring the evidence of just 27 dead and our distinctly not overwhelmed hospital wards – claim it’s proof elimination and lockdowns haven’t worked.

Others, including Ardern and her cabinet colleagues, insist level 3 is still all about elimination. But the language has undeniably changed. The strictly evidence-led approach of the past 18 months is muted and this week the language of luck has stuck out like one of Napoleon’s bicorne hats.

In truth New Zealand’s ridden its luck a lot this pandemic. The failure to properly test border staff, people escaping MIQs but never spreading the disease, the slow initial vaccine rollout that side-lined GPs, dithering on salvia testing and purpose-built quarantine centres … yeah, luck has always been part of the story, alongside getting the big calls right. But this is different.

This week just about every epidemiologist has used the words “calculated risk” and epidemiologist Michael Baker said flat out, “it’s a gamble”. Covid-19 response minister Chris Hipkins was reduced to insisting that, “We’ve still got a very good shot at getting down to zero [community cases]”.

You cant eliminate Covid only vaccinate. Try telling that to Fernlanders.

So what should you do while waiting for the vaccines to be developed, tested, manufactured and rolled-out?

She missed the boat by miles though gambling.

[pErvinalia]

How did she gamble?

[Scot Dutchy]

Just think cant you. She kept up one policy that of elimination and forgot to order enough vaccines. You cant eliminate Covid only vaccinate against it. Fernland is trying to play catch up and making an arse and tit job of it. Of course they will never admit it.

[Scot Dutchy]

Further in that article:

It’s a big move for Ardern. Not least because amid the polarising adoration and fury she inspires, the prime minister is by instinct and training a conservative. Stubbornly cautious. So why this “calculated risk”? Why bet on luck?

In part, she must feel confident from her data that the number of community cases won’t blow out. A surge in the next two weeks and talk of a return to level 4 would be devastating for all. And in one sense she may well feel she’s not so much increasing the risk as replacing lockdowns with vaccinations as her key Covid-busting tool; moving her public health chips from black to red.

Yet, even if the government data is better than the public knows, it’s a greater political risk than she’s taken previously in this pandemic. So, why?

Talk about gambling?

[pErvinalia]

Just think cant you. She kept up one policy that of elimination and forgot to order enough vaccines. You cant eliminate Covid only vaccinate against it. Fernland is trying to play catch up and making an arse and tit job of it. Of course they will never admit it.

She forgot to order enough vaccines? Unsupported claim.

[Sean Hayden]

Already at 90% in this county.

[Tero]

Because we had football games, we get a spike on mondays for covid. A week ago it was 400, last Mon it was 1000. The previous one day peak was in December, some 300. So the delta variant and the college operating normally except masks in class to end of Sep has brought single day peaks. The 7 day average never goes over 250.

[Scot Dutchy]

Just think cant you. She kept up one policy that of elimination and forgot to order enough vaccines. You cant eliminate Covid only vaccinate against it. Fernland is trying to play catch up and making an arse and tit job of it. Of course they will never admit it.

She forgot to order enough vaccines? Unsupported claim.

She made a balls up just like your PM.

[Tero]

Looking at how many had Covid, NE has had 13% of the population infected. Quite well behaved and vaccinated, outside of football. Badly misbehaved Missouri has 15-16%. So it looks like this will drag out another half year. If there is no competition to the delta variant, it will in fact flatten out. So it will be a peak in a few weeks, then a very very slow decline on the right hand side, plus maybe a little sharper fall when it is a month before the end. This is the world cases, the US will drag a month behind with our peak.

[Brian Peacock]

...
You cant eliminate Covid only vaccinate. Try telling that to Fernlanders.

So what should you do while waiting for the vaccines to be developed, tested, manufactured and rolled-out?

She missed the boat by miles though gambling.

So what should you do while waiting for the vaccines to be developed, tested, manufactured and rolled-out?