American Politics from 2019 on

[Sean Hayden]

Really, so you’ve got enough money to influence elections but not to be well informed? —skeptical?

[Tero]

Musk gave Trump 75 million.
He got a special black MAGA hat for it.

[Tero]

Jeff explains

[Tero]

I was at Super Saver, as it was a convenient stop. I shop at a bigger chain somewhat bigger stores and services inside (pharmacy). The SSaver stores are part of a chain owned by a family who are in fact Democrats.

This was definitely low information voter area. lady in her 70s clearly was not happy, though the male cashier made some chatter. But unles she has a relative that is pregnant, Trump is not on her mind. She bought a whole basket of stuff, mostly in cardboard packing.

These people will all claim that "the federal governmnet does not do anything." Despite funding most of our South Beltline road.

[Brian Peacock]

Musk gave Trump 75 million.
He got a special black MAGA hat for it.

He's going to be the secretary for cutting costs. We're all very excited.

[Tero]

The polling averages that the media are making a big deal of are maybe 1-2 weeks of recent polls. Hard to say. 538 site explains.

The change in candidate’s fortunes came after a slow drip-drip-drip of polls showed the race tightening across the northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds…

Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Sean Hayden]

It’s just not believable. What are these polls capturing exactly? Are we supposed to believe voters are moving between candidates like this?

Surely it’s more likely that slight differences from poll to poll are being hyped because reality is boring.

[Tero]

The 3 percent lead Harris had in some battleground states is down to 1%. Because....the models? The sampling? The undecided/middle of the range voters did decide but are no longer answering the phone?

Meanwhile: word salad on...death penalty?
Trump: Which is incapable of solvin’ even the sollest problem. We are an institute in a powerful death penalty. We will put this on..
https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/ ... vKeRaplLVw
I think he is going to allow shooting all shop lifters and rioters.

below:
makenbenessa
2h2 hours ago
From your friend in Canada - why, Americans?? Why is this individual even in the running??

[Tero]

Who knew, the continuing lies and deceit of the GOP have crept into polls as well.

Since late August more than 70 right-aligned polls have been dropped into the polling averages. The two states that have been worked the hardest are North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In October of the 27 Presidential polls released in Pennsylvania, 16 are from right-aligned pollsters, a majority. Since August 31st of the 41 Presidential polls released in North Carolina, 21, a majority have home come from right aligned pollsters.

At least 31 right-aligned pollsters and sponsoring organizations have released polls in the last 7 weeks:
American Greatness, American Pulse Research and Polling, Daily Mail, co/efficent, Cygnal, Echelon, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Hunt Research, Insider Advantage, J.L. Partners, McLaughlin, Mitchell Communications, Napolitan Institute, Noble Predictive, On Message, Orbital Digital, Public Opinion Strategies, Quantus, Rasmussen, Redfield & Wilton, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, TIPP, Trafalgar, Victory Insights, University of Austin, and The Wall Street Journal.

There is also a case to be made that HarrisX should be counted, as its lead, Mark Penn, actively worked against Joe Biden and the Democrats earlier this year. ActiVote, AtlasIntel and FocalData polls were not counted in either category.

As I am running out of space, a few final points: 1) yes the media and Democrats should be talking about this more, and electoral analysts need to be far more honest about what is going on 2) yes it is likely that red waved maps showing Trump winning will be used as a central argument for him to contest the election. And yes therefore we should be challening all this a bit more forcefully 3) all this bs and fuckery is why we just have to put our heads down, keep working hard and ignore the noise. It is a close election today and will be on election day 4) they would only be doing all this if they thought they were losing. You only cheat when you are losing.

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-h ... re-working

[Tero]

NYT paywall info. Polling error. Example: In 2020 (trump in race) the error for WI was 9 percent too much for Trump before election. The 2020 errors were too many point for Dems. So they now try to fix both. I am not in favor of tweeking the polled people in polls. Why not try to get a random sample?
The first column is not error but just current poll number.

(not sure why it shows same jpg twice. I did not do it)

[Tero]

More rigged polls

[Tero]

Breaking! Nate Silver's gut has shit for brains.
Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine.
By Nate Silver
NYT, paywall.

Famed polling guru Nate Silver’s ‘gut says Donald Trump’ will win 2024 presidential election

“It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them,” he wrote.
“That could plausibly bias the polls against Ms. Harris because people who say they voted for Mr. Biden but actually voted for Mr. Trump will get flagged as new Trump voters when they aren’t.

https://nypost.com/2024/10/23/us-news/f ... -election/

[Tero]

Obama at rally:

Obama opened his ensuing speech by saying: “I gotta say, I have done a lot of rallies, so I don’t usually get nervous, but I was feeling some kind of way following Eminem,” before segueing into Lose Yourself’s opening lines: “I notice my palms are sweaty, knees weak, arms are heavy, vomit on my sweater already, mom’s spaghetti, I’m nervous but on the surface I look calm and ready to drop bombs but I keep on forgetting …”

Which brings us to Trump and YMCA. Hopefully we do not get to see Trump rapping.

[Tero]

CNN
“Trump is appealing to people who haven’t been as successful as other people and providing an excuse for that, that these more successful people have somehow been cheated, and you don’t deserve to think of yourself as less successful because things haven’t been fair,” he said
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics ... index.html

[Tero]

My votes for president in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 meant nothing. Because of the electoral college.

And the same for senators, they lost except one senator in MO. I now have a good chance of getting independent Osborn in for senate, and dump the Republican.