English Pound set to Rocket

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Will the Pound recover the Brexit Losses in the next few weeks?

20%
0
No votes
10%
0
No votes
-10%
3
27%
-20%
1
9%
Molten cheese
7
64%
 
Total votes: 11

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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by JimC » Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:58 am

Strontium Dog wrote:

...longer-term effects of the Lib Dems exiting government...
But earlier:
...you can pinpoint the exact moment the Lib Dems left government...
Hmmmm....
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Hermit » Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:09 am

Strontium Dog wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:53 am
Hermit wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:45 pm
Strontium Dog wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:06 pm
Ah, cherry-picking of data, that never gets old.
Let's see now. You quoted the screenshot of the British pound/euro exchange rate and wrote "you can pinpoint the exact moment the Lib Dems left government..." The exact moment the Lib Dems left government is outside the range of that screenshot, so I looked it up and posted another screenshot, which does pinpoint the exact moment the Lib Dems left government, plus the two days on either side of it. You have a definition of either "cherry-picking" or of "pinpoint the exact moment" or both that I am not familiar with, and I doubt that anyone else is either.
The screenshot I was quoting goes back to May 2014, the Lib Dems left government in May 2015, so, no, it wasn't outside the range.
The screenshot spans the time period from the 20th of June 2016, three days before the Brexit referendum to the latest available day, which was the 14th of March 2019. I know that because I set the chart set up that way. As you say, the Lib Dems left government in May 2015, so, yes, it was outside the range.

This is the page that contains the chart I used. You can duplicate the exercise. The sliders at the bottom let you set the beginning and end of the date range to anywhere within the past ten years.
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:11 am

Where is the British pound going then? A damp squid?
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Rum » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:17 am

Expert analysis as ever. Based on ill will.

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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:22 am

Based on simple fact. (Hey grumpy there are things called rain suits. Put one on and take your dogs for a walk)

Image
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Hermit » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:57 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:11 am
Where is the British pound going then? A damp squid?
Since its abrupt drop following the referendum vote almost two years ago the pound has ranged between 1.2 and 1.08 to the Euro. So, yeah, a damp squib. Certainly no rises or drops anywhere near the up to ± 20% mark your poll suggested, and I don't expect it to move in anywhere near that magnitude as a result of Brexit, no matter what form it will finish up with. Coito Two's take is a lot closer to the mark with his prognosis than you. The EU will be a little worse off. The UK will be a little more worse off than the UK, and the people in the lower income strata will bear the brunt of the damage as usual, but in the end there'll be no drastic changes in the GDP on either side.

What will have a major impact is the impending global economic collapse. With interest rates near enough to zero there is not much scope left to revive the economy by lowering them any further. I expect the bust to occur beginning somewhere between the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2021, but my prediction is based on no more than a hunch.
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:34 am

I am not speculating anything. It was a fucking joke. ENGLISH pound get it? Never mind.

Your speculations are just that YOHM.
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Strontium Dog » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:42 pm

Hermit wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:09 am
Strontium Dog wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:53 am
Hermit wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:45 pm
Strontium Dog wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:06 pm
Ah, cherry-picking of data, that never gets old.
Let's see now. You quoted the screenshot of the British pound/euro exchange rate and wrote "you can pinpoint the exact moment the Lib Dems left government..." The exact moment the Lib Dems left government is outside the range of that screenshot, so I looked it up and posted another screenshot, which does pinpoint the exact moment the Lib Dems left government, plus the two days on either side of it. You have a definition of either "cherry-picking" or of "pinpoint the exact moment" or both that I am not familiar with, and I doubt that anyone else is either.
The screenshot I was quoting goes back to May 2014, the Lib Dems left government in May 2015, so, no, it wasn't outside the range.
The screenshot spans the time period from the 20th of June 2016, three days before the Brexit referendum to the latest available day, which was the 14th of March 2019. I know that because I set the chart set up that way. As you say, the Lib Dems left government in May 2015, so, yes, it was outside the range.

This is the page that contains the chart I used. You can duplicate the exercise. The sliders at the bottom let you set the beginning and end of the date range to anywhere within the past ten years.
I'm referring to your other graph a few posts before that one, from March 2014 to March 2019.

You know, it's okay to admit that the exchange rate was terrible before the coalition, improved steadily over the five years of coalition, then declined when the coalition ended. Nobody will confiscate your Lefty Card.
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Hermit » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:23 am

Strontium Dog wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:42 pm
Hermit wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:09 am
Strontium Dog wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:53 am
Hermit wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:45 pm
Strontium Dog wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:06 pm
Ah, cherry-picking of data, that never gets old.
Let's see now. You quoted the screenshot of the British pound/euro exchange rate and wrote "you can pinpoint the exact moment the Lib Dems left government..." The exact moment the Lib Dems left government is outside the range of that screenshot, so I looked it up and posted another screenshot, which does pinpoint the exact moment the Lib Dems left government, plus the two days on either side of it. You have a definition of either "cherry-picking" or of "pinpoint the exact moment" or both that I am not familiar with, and I doubt that anyone else is either.
The screenshot I was quoting goes back to May 2014, the Lib Dems left government in May 2015, so, no, it wasn't outside the range.
The screenshot spans the time period from the 20th of June 2016, three days before the Brexit referendum to the latest available day, which was the 14th of March 2019. I know that because I set the chart set up that way. As you say, the Lib Dems left government in May 2015, so, yes, it was outside the range.

This is the page that contains the chart I used. You can duplicate the exercise. The sliders at the bottom let you set the beginning and end of the date range to anywhere within the past ten years.
I'm referring to your other graph a few posts before that one, from March 2014 to March 2019.
You're getting really desperate now. Or you need to learn how to read charts. You can pinpoint the day the Lib Dems left the coalition government, it's the one where the pound shot up from being worth 1.343 to 1.370 euros. Three months later it was worth 1.424 euros and every day in between it was higher than the day the Lib Dems left the coalition. In fact, except for one day five months later - on the 14th of October - it did not drop below your pinpoint until eight months later - on the 8th of July. This is what the currency rate looked like in those three months:

Screenshot from 2019-03-18 10-24-35.png
And here is the link to the site I took adapted the chart from once more, so you can replicate the result yourself: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... UR&view=5Y
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Strontium Dog » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:54 am

Yes, there's a lot of noise, and of course coalition policy does not cease to have an effect on the day the government ends, but the trend is unarguable.

Let me make it very simple.

Exchange rate 10 May 2010, the last full day of the outgoing Labour government: £1 buys you €1.151
Exchange rate 6 May 2015, the last full day before the election, after 5 years of Lib Dems in government: £1 buys you €1.357
Exchange rate 22 March 2019 (ie now) under a Tory government: £1 buys you €1.164
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:57 am

You said "the exact moment LibDems left government".
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Strontium Dog » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:03 am

You'll probably be arguing that there's some agreed definition of what a moment is.
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:04 am

:roll: Only you could be this inane.
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Hermit » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:08 am

Strontium Dog wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:55 am
It's funny, you can pinpoint the exact moment the Lib Dems left government...
Strontium Dog wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:54 am
Yes, there's a lot of noise, and of course coalition policy does not cease to have an effect on the day the government ends, but the trend is unarguable.

Let me make it very simple.

Exchange rate 10 May 2010, the last full day of the outgoing Labour government: £1 buys you €1.151
Exchange rate 6 May 2015, the last full day before the election, after 5 years of Lib Dems in government: £1 buys you €1.357
Exchange rate 22 March 2019 (ie now) under a Tory government: £1 buys you €1.164
Strontium Dog wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:03 am
You'll probably be arguing that there's some agreed definition of what a moment is.
Well, yes, of course. Let's just define 'pinpoint' as 'nine years'. Then it becomes abundantly clear that you were right all along. :hehe:
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Re: English Pound set to Rocket

Post by Strontium Dog » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:40 am

Nobody's defining pinpoint as nine years. I am pinpointing it to Mid 2015. You know, when the Lib Dems left government...

It's clear you will do anything to deny the reality of the situation - that the exchange rate was shit when the Lib Dems entered government, improved greatly over the course of that government, then became shit again after they left government.
100% verifiable facts or your money back. Anti-fascist. Enemy of woo - theistic or otherwise. Cloth is not an antiviral. Imagination and fantasy is no substitute for tangible reality. Wishing doesn't make it real.

"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear" - George Orwell

"I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!" - Barry Goldwater

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