BREXIT! BREXIT! BREXIT!

[JimC]

I think that any predictions about the fate of the UK would be just as good if obtained by studying the entrails of a goat...

[Scot Dutchy]

I think the default will happen because Johnson, Trump and the Brexiteers want it and the opposition cant get united.

[JimC]

How did those entrails look, Scot? Steamy and green?

[Scot Dutchy]

Black and murky Jim. Not nice anyway. I will be throwing the bones later on today and will see how they land.

[Scot Dutchy]

Leaked report on the effects of a no deal:

No-deal Brexit: key points of Operation Yellowhammer report

From cross-Channel transport disruption to public disorder – the predictions in the leaked document

A government report on Operation Yellowhammer was leaked on Sunday, revealing the probable consequences of the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement, which is due to happen on 31 October. Here are the key points:

Transport disruption

• 50%-85% of lorries travelling across the Channel may not be ready for French customs.

• The worst disruption to the short Channel crossings might last three months, although disruption could continue much longer.

• In a reasonable worst-case scenario, HGVs could face a maximum delay of 1½-2½ days before being able to cross the border.
Immigration changes

• EU likely to have increased immigration checks at border posts. This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel tunnel) and Dover.

Medicines

• With significant disruption lasting up to six months across the Channel, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies unless there is mitigation via other sources.

I am just the messenger. This is a UK government report into worst case scenarios which in Brexit terms will probably happen.

[Scot Dutchy]

[Brian Peacock]

Interesting response of the newspaper front pages to the Brexit report leaked to the Guardian yesterday...

Express: PROJECT FEAR BID TO BLOCK BORIS
i: Gove plays down leaked crisis plans for Brexit
METRO: NO-DEAL LEAK SLAMMED AS PROJECT FEAR
Times: PM accuses ex-ministers over Brexit chaos leaks
Telegraph: No-deal leak blamed on Hammond's Remainers
Financial Times: Johnson Takes Brexit Message To EU Leaders Amid Leak Chaos
The Sun: STRICTLY STARS TO DIVORCE: KISSING KATYA DOES THE SPLITS
Daily Mail: DOCTORS ORDERED TO STOP HALF-DAY CLOSING

... I say interesting because the UK's two top selling newspapers, The Sun and the Dail Wail (and if you include their Sunday versions hold the top four weekly newspaper by sales), completely ignore the issue on their front pages and on the Home pages of their websites..

[JimC]

Yet another complication: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-20/ ... t/11430336

The United Kingdom said it would end European Union freedom of movement rules immediately after it leaves the bloc on October 31.

The freedom of movement regulations allow citizens of EU countries to live and work without restriction in any of the other member states, with approximately 3 million EU nationals currently residing in the UK.

Under Mr Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, the government had said only that if the UK left the EU without a transition deal it would aim to end free movement "as soon as possible".

Mr Johnson, who took office last month, has promised to take Britain out of the EU with or without a deal on October 31.

Food rotting in trucks, planes grounded at Heathrow and a hard Irish border raising tensions on the Emerald Isle are all possibilities facing the United Kingdom if a no-deal Brexit goes through.
"Freedom of movement as it currently stands will end on 31 October when the UK leaves the EU, and after Brexit the government will introduce a new, fairer immigration system that prioritises skills and what people can contribute to the UK, rather than where they come from," a spokesman for the UK Home Office said in a statement.

Mr Johnson's spokeswoman said further details on the changes to freedom of movement were being worked on and would be set out shortly, but would include tougher criminality checks.

"What we are going to do is leave the EU and that means that legally all those powers revert to the UK," Mr Johnson told BBC Radio Cornwall.

[Scot Dutchy]

The hand of Trump is clearly visible. Trump wants to puncture a hole into the single market using the UK. Both he and Johnson are hoping the threat of a US-UK trade deal will be enough to reopen the WA negotiations. Trump wants to destroy the EU. He never has liked it. It is the biggest economic bastion against US world domination. He will not start a trade war (probably he would but people with some brains have said no). The problem he and Johnson have is that any trade deal has to be approved by both governments.
Johnson seems also to have trouble understanding English.

EU unconvinced by Johnson's fresh bid to remove Brexit backstop

PM says new commitments to stop hard Irish border should be considered by the bloc

Boris Johnson has written to the EU suggesting the backstop could be replaced by some form of commitment to prevent a hard Irish border in his first major move to explain the UK government’s new position to Brussels.

Ahead of talks with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, Johnson released a four-page letter setting out his position that the backstop is “anti-democratic and inconsistent with the sovereignty of the UK”, because it could keep the UK indefinitely in a customs union with no means of exit.
He proposed that alternative customs arrangements could be put in place at the Irish border within the two-year transitional period after Brexit, but suggested some unspecified commitments could give confidence that there will be no hard border on the island if this system is not ready by that point.

The release of the letter, addressed to Donald Tusk, the European council president, appears intended to portray Johnson as willing to negotiate with Brussels, even though he is making a demand for the abolition of the backstop that they have repeatedly rebuffed.

Trump's tweet:

Great discussion with Prime Minister @BorisJohnson today. We talked about Brexit and how we can move rapidly on a US-UK free trade deal. I look forward to meeting with Boris this weekend, at the @G7, in France!

Once again UK leaders are showing their complete misunderstanding of how the EU functions:

“We have been clear that what the EU needs to understand is unless the withdrawal agreement can be reopened and the backstop abolished, there isn’t any prospect of a deal.”
Asked why the meetings with Merkel and Macron were taking place, Downing Street said: “The PM believes it’s important to speak to the leaders of France and Germany to deliver the message that he’s been setting out through the phone calls face to face.”

Never mind the leaders of the other 25 countries.

[Rum]

If I were a brexiteer (which I’m not), Boris would be my guy. He doesn’t give a fuck and has the drive to get past actually leaving and on to how the country then copes.

[Brian Peacock]

Notice how Boris just made the negating and/or security of the international peace treaty called the Good Friday agreement the sole responsibility of the EU? Anyone spot that one?

[JimC]

If Eire does not want a hard border either, how can the EU force them to achieve it? German panzers rolling down the streets of Dublin?

[Brian Peacock]

The people of Northern Ireland voted to remain by about 55% to 44%. The sticking point are the DUP, who are trenchantly at odds with the population and are supplying Parliamentary support to the Conservative government. The DUP see the practical solution, extending the EU border into NI for the purposes of trade and free movement of people as the first step to a united Ireland. The DUP are ideologically opposed to that even if the majority of the population of NI wanted it. Now Boris is saying that if the EU doesn't want the Irish border to be a smugglers paradise then they're the ones who are going to have to build a wall - or impose special conditions on goods and people moving in or out of Eire. As far as Boris is concerned this is very much an EU problem now, and he hopes his non-compliance with The Good Friday Agreement or the negotiated Backstop will force the EU to ... well ... do something that the UK public can vote Conservative for.

[JimC]

What is the position of Eire on all this?

[pErvinalia]

It's all up in the air.