US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

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US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:14 pm

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Heap big red wave, or what?
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by pErvinalia » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:18 pm

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Hermit » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:05 am

I go with FiveThirtyEight on the outcome. The Republicans will retain control of the Senate and the Democrats will gain control of the House. Right now the site gives the Democrats an 83.9% of winning control of the House and the Republicans an 81.0% chance of retaining control of the Senate. The odds are updated every time a new lot of surveys is published, so pretty much on a daily basis.
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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by JimC » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:42 am

So, it will remain the Divided States of America...
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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Animavore » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:50 am

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Libertarianism: The belief that out of all the terrible things governments can do, helping people is the absolute worst.

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:17 pm

Hermit wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:05 am
I go with FiveThirtyEight on the outcome. The Republicans will retain control of the Senate and the Democrats will gain control of the House. Right now the site gives the Democrats an 83.9% of winning control of the House and the Republicans an 81.0% chance of retaining control of the Senate. The odds are updated every time a new lot of surveys is published, so pretty much on a daily basis.
I typically rely on 538, as well. Nate Silver is the best in that arena. The one thing gnawing at me is the wild card of Trump - slight whiff of 2016 is in the air - where people are just not as willing to state out loud how they're really going to vote.

But, Trump is not as much of a factor in the House races, which are more local and decided on the turnout of a smaller number of more politically active people.
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:19 pm

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“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Animavore » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:22 pm

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Libertarianism: The belief that out of all the terrible things governments can do, helping people is the absolute worst.

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:13 pm

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“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:17 pm

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“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:22 pm

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“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:30 pm

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Run, Beto! Run!

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And, when your philosophy says it's just peachy to "punch Nazis", I guess destruction of property becomes a moral imperative: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... _cruz.html
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:00 pm

"The Republicans, they need to play offense," McLaughlin said, adding that the party's target should be House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has battled opposition from within her own party in recent months.

"The person who is the most unpopular national figure is Nancy Pelosi. And the Democrats are hiding her," McLaughlin continued. "The president needs to take her on and expose her because she stands for higher taxes, open borders, fewer jobs. She stands for basically a weaker America."

Democrats are battling for a net gain of 23 seats in the House to retake the lower chamber next month. Republicans hold the advantage in the Senate, where Democrats are seeking to close a two-seat gap.

Republicans trailed Democrats by 13 points on a generic congressional ballot among likely voters in a CNN poll released this week. FiveThirtyEight's election forecast currently gives Democrats a 79 percent chance of winning control of the House next month
.
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-tal ... n-midterms
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:08 pm

“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: US Mid-term Elections - Predictions, Jokes and Discussion

Post by Forty Two » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:09 pm

“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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