The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Joe » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:35 pm

Okay, April was good. So what?
Overall, the deficit for the first seven months of the fiscal year widened to $385 billion, from $344 billion a year earlier, according to Treasury.
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Forty Two » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:46 pm

Joe wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:35 pm
Okay, April was good. So what?
Overall, the deficit for the first seven months of the fiscal year widened to $385 billion, from $344 billion a year earlier, according to Treasury.
Well, the specific point was whether a reduction in rate can raise more revenue than an increase, and the revenue numbers since the tax cuts have gone up. The April numbers are a particularly good example, and relate to the tax filing deadline.

The deficit has two factors - revenue and spending. Trump was unable to achieve spending cuts for the budget this year. I'm crossing my fingers for spending cuts when budget negotiations start again. The Republicans have nothing to brag about in terms of spending cuts. They talk a good game, but they are bullshit artists because they never ever cut spending. Democrats never cut spending, and always try to increase it ridiculously, and they make no bones about taxing people more either. Their game is to pretend that the only ones they want to tax are the "ultra rich."

So, I'm not confident, but I am hopeful that this next budget will see real cuts.
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by JimC » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:01 pm

And, no doubt, real cuts to spending on social and environmental programs. The cuts will serve the wealthy, and stitch up both the poor and the environment. Trump is a puppet of the big end of town...
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Joe » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:19 pm

Forty Two wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:46 pm
Joe wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:35 pm
Okay, April was good. So what?
Overall, the deficit for the first seven months of the fiscal year widened to $385 billion, from $344 billion a year earlier, according to Treasury.
Well, the specific point was whether a reduction in rate can raise more revenue than an increase, and the revenue numbers since the tax cuts have gone up. The April numbers are a particularly good example, and relate to the tax filing deadline.

The deficit has two factors - revenue and spending. Trump was unable to achieve spending cuts for the budget this year. I'm crossing my fingers for spending cuts when budget negotiations start again. The Republicans have nothing to brag about in terms of spending cuts. They talk a good game, but they are bullshit artists because they never ever cut spending. Democrats never cut spending, and always try to increase it ridiculously, and they make no bones about taxing people more either. Their game is to pretend that the only ones they want to tax are the "ultra rich."

So, I'm not confident, but I am hopeful that this next budget will see real cuts.
Yeah, but one month isn't going to tell you that. Besides, didn't you read that article?
In addition, some wealthy Americans put off paying tax bills last year as they awaited clarity on Republican plans to cut taxes. They may have stepped up payments in April, considering President Donald Trump by then had already signed new tax reform into law, according to Brian Riedl, an economist and senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a New York-based research group.

“But really, this is not due to a major economic change,” he said about higher government revenue. “Every April is going to show an even bigger bump just because of inflation and wage growth.”
He's probably right. Unadjusted numbers can be misleading.
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by pErvinalia » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:11 pm

Forty Two wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:46 pm
Joe wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:35 pm
Okay, April was good. So what?
Overall, the deficit for the first seven months of the fiscal year widened to $385 billion, from $344 billion a year earlier, according to Treasury.
Well, the specific point was whether a reduction in rate can raise more revenue than an increase, and the revenue numbers since the tax cuts have gone up.
I notice how you ignored the long term data I provided.
Democrats never cut spending, and always try to increase it ridiculously, and they make no bones about taxing people more either. Their game is to pretend that the only ones they want to tax are the "ultra rich."


Have the Democrats actually raised taxes on anyone since Carter?
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by L'Emmerdeur » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:52 pm

Of course they have. However, the Republicans have been pushing a myth about their approach to the economy for so long that many gullible or mendacious people have no problem parroting it.

'Deficits, Debts and Democrats vs Republicans — US national debt in graphs by year and president'


This graph goes against what I think would be conventional wisdom — that Republicans do a better job with the economy than those taxing, government-worshipping Democrats. Surprisingly, if you look at personal income growth over the last fifty years under each kind of president (Democrat vs Republican), you discover that no matter which income percentile you fall into, you saw your income grow more during Democratic presidential administrations than during Republican administrations.

The other telling thing shown here is that the amount of income growth under Democrats gets better as you move to poorer segments of the population, even though ALL groups experienced greater income growth under Democrats (except for the top five percent) than under Republicans.

...



Studying this graphic, you can clearly see that US government debt by year after WWII (1945) declined as a percentage of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) continually all the way until the Reagan years. You can also see that most of those post-war years were under solid Democratic control in both houses. Throughout the years of Reagonomics, however, the United State’s national debt as a percentage of GDP — after decades of decline – grew rapidly and continued to do so under President George Bush the First. Then U.S. debt plunged for the first time throughout the Clinton years (when taxes on the wealthy were raised) and finally began to rise again during the Bush II years (when taxes on the wealthy were cut again … even more than they were cut by Reagan).

So, while individual income grew better for everyone during Democratic administrations, the U.S.A. national debt grew much better for everyone under Republican administrations.

You might have already noted that the debt soared in proportion to GDP under President Obama, but the Obama years do not afford a fair comparison of Republican vs Democrat on the national debt because we entered what may eventually be called the Great Depression II during the Bush II years. Let me put it another way: I don’t believe for a second that Republicans, who presided over the creation of this global depression, would have fared any better than Obama when it comes to US deficits for the following reason: Obama has carried out exactly the economic policies that Bush switched to in his final year.

...



... There is no getting around the fact that the Republican track record for deficit spending is abysmal or that the Great Recession began for the entire world in the eighth year of their watch under George Bush II. Not only has personal income for ALL segments of the population (except the top 1%) done worse during Republican administrations over the past fifty years, but the United States’ gross debt has skyrocketed under every Republican administration from the beginning of Nixon’s second term onward. That’s a numerical fact, and their feet should be held to the fire for it.
The budget deficit, as Forty Two's own source tells us, has grown, despite the numbers for the month of April.
Overall, the deficit for the first seven months of the fiscal year widened to $385 billion, from $344 billion a year earlier, according to Treasury.

Tax cuts and spending increases approved by Trump are expected to push the budget deficit to $804 billion in the current fiscal year, from $665 billion in fiscal 2017, and then surpass the $1 trillion-mark by 2020, according to the CBO. The White House says the tax cuts will pay for themselves through faster economic growth.
That 'tax cuts will pay for themselves' is the same tired old Laffer curve snake oil that Republicans have been peddling for years.

'Trump’s Tax Cuts Ignore History and Arithmetic to Make the Rich Richer'
But despite over 40 years of making the argument, the GOP has never confronted one salient point: The Laffer curve has no numbers. Even if the theory is correct—and experience demonstrates it is not—the curve itself proves there is a point at which tax cuts become irresponsible, causing deficits to explode. Remember, it is the Laffer curve, not the Laffer declining vector. So where on that curve is the perfect tax rate to bring in the most government revenues? The empirical analyses conducted by independent economists have come up with 68 percent, 70 percent and 35 percent—all higher than the current rate of taxation, and much higher than what the Trump tax-cut plan is proposing.

Moreover, the presumptions of the Laffer curve do not exist in the real world. There is no one tax rate—there is a schedule of multiple rates, with tax cuts having a different impact on each individual’s disposable income. And, because of those different rates, while major tax cuts have been enormously beneficial to the wealthy by reducing their taxes and increasing their incomes the most, the distribution of benefit for working people has been comparatively negligible. That is not the argument of some liberal politician—it was the finding of Martin Feldstein, the chief economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan, in his analysis of the Tax Reform Act of 1986.

In fact, in a 1999 analysis of six tax changes since 1922, University of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee found that it was quite unlikely the government would raise more revenue that would offset increasing deficits by cutting marginal tax rates below where they are now. Showering even more money on the rich does not inspire the middle class to work harder; it simply increases economic inequality.

That is why, time and again, Republican economists who have served on the Council of Economic Advisers for different presidents have insisted that the “tax cuts pay for themselves” argument is a proven canard.
Why Forty Two decided to post something about the economy in a thread about the intelligence community, one can only guess.

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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Brian Peacock » Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:12 am

Hey Guys. Shall I merge this with the 'Republicans' thread, the general Trump thread, or the Russia-Trump thing thread? We seem to have reach total system saturation again.
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by pErvinalia » Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:52 am

Trump thread.

By the way, the reason debt has exploded during Republican administrations is all the Democrats fault. Because reasons.
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by pErvinalia » Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:54 am

Regarding taxes going up under Dems, what is the overall tax burden (as represented by a marginal tax rate), though? I find it hard to believe that the overall tax burden didn't fall under the neoliberal Democrats. At the very least I would be very surprised to find that it went up.
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Scot Dutchy » Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:21 am

Brian Peacock wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:12 am
Hey Guys. Shall I merge this with the 'Republicans' thread, the general Trump thread, or the Russia-Trump thing thread? We seem to have reach total system saturation again.
Please Brian all in one. It gives 42 to much space to play in. Tracking all his fake news is tiring.
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Forty Two » Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:20 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:21 am
Brian Peacock wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:12 am
Hey Guys. Shall I merge this with the 'Republicans' thread, the general Trump thread, or the Russia-Trump thing thread? We seem to have reach total system saturation again.
Please Brian all in one. It gives 42 to much space to play in. Tracking all his fake news is tiring.
Merging now? Why?

You realize, this is a different topic. It is not about "Republicans," or "Trump," or "Russia-Trump" - or at least it wasn't set out to be that. It was about whether the intelligence community are champions of democracy, and it would generally relate to the behavior of the intelligence community, policies, practices, customs, and conduct, etc.

There are plenty of threads created that relate to other threads - like the newer "make fun of Trump thread" that aren't merged into more general topics.

What the fuck? Are we conserving thread space? Does it take more bandwidth? What is this bullshit about merging different topics just because some folks are uncomfortable about other people talking about specific issues they'd rather not see mentioned (and would prefer get buried in a heap of other noise)?
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Forty Two » Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:47 pm

pErvinalia wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:54 am
Regarding taxes going up under Dems, what is the overall tax burden (as represented by a marginal tax rate), though? I find it hard to believe that the overall tax burden didn't fall under the neoliberal Democrats. At the very least I would be very surprised to find that it went up.
Well, there are many ways to present the data in this type of question. First, we have to come to an agreement as to what it means to be "under Dems." Is it if the President is Democrat? Or is it when the Congress is majority Democrat?

For example, under Bill Clinton there were tax increases. Oddly, these tax increases have from time to time been hailed as actually spurring on the economic boom. See Op-Ed by James Carville claiming that the Clinton-spearheaded increase of tax rates to 39.5% produced prosperity. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424 ... 0716970056

There was the "no new taxes" faux pax of GHWBush's administration. He promised no new taxes, then the recession hit. Bush initially presented Congress a proposed budget containing steep spending cuts and no new taxes, but congressional Democrats dismissed this out of hand (as usual). So Bush Sr signed the omnibus bill that included tax hikes in 1990, but the 100th, 101st, and 102nd Congresses (both House and Senate) were majority Democrat from 1988 when he took office, to 1992 when he left. So, were those tax increases Republican or Democrat?

Obama and taxes - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... 2140891099

Recall, the Democrats had approximately a more than 4 decade long majority control of Congress, which ended with the Republican revolution in 1994. The Democrats had majorities in both the House and the Senate from 1952 through 1994. Republicans only controlled 4 years of both House and Senate from 1933 to 1995.

So, it's probably a function of differing political systems, whereas a Parliamentary approach has the Prime Minister generally of the same party as the majority party (or at least of the biggest party in a coalition). In the US, though, it's very common for a President to be opposed by a Congress controlled by his opposition. So, when bills are put through Congress to raise taxes, are those bills the President's tax hikes, or the majority in Congress' tax hikes?
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Scot Dutchy » Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:37 pm

Brian he is using 6 threads for the same crap. Please chuck into one bin.
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Forty Two » Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:20 pm

Dutchy, the threads are of different topics. Fuck off. And, what business is it of yours? What difference can it possibly make to you? If you're not interested in the fucking topic, don't visit there, for fuck's sake. Are you so immature that you can't allow conversations to take place which you don't like?
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Re: The Intelligence Community - Champion of Democracy

Post by Seabass » Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:52 pm

What a goddamn farce.
Trump's military parade is now estimated to cost $92 million – $80 million more than earlier estimate
President Donald Trump's military parade is estimated to cost $92 million, according to a U.S. defense official with firsthand knowledge of the assessment.
An earlier estimate pegged the cost at $12 million.
The parade is scheduled to take place in the nation's capital on Nov. 10 and will feature armored vehicles, aircraft flyovers and period uniforms.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/16/trump-m ... mated.html

President Donald Trump's military parade this fall is shaping up to cost $80 million more than initially estimated.

The Department of Defense and its interagency partners have updated their perspective cost estimates for the parade, according to a U.S. defense official with firsthand knowledge of the assessment. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The parade, slated for Nov. 10, is estimated to cost $92 million, the official said. The figure consists of $50 million from the Pentagon and $42 million from interagency partners such as the Department of Homeland Security. An initial estimate last month pegged the prospective cost for the parade at $12 million.

A Pentagon spokesman said in an email to CNBC that the Defense Department expects to make an announcement soon, but he would not comment further. The White House referred questions to the Defense Department.

The $92 million cost estimate includes security, transportation of parade assets, aircraft, as well as temporary duty for troops. The official also noted that while the size and scope of the military parade can still shift, the plans currently include approximately eight tanks, as well as other armored vehicles, including Bradleys, Strykers and M113s.

The official also said that experts put to rest concerns about whether the Abrams tank, which weighs just shy of 70 tons, would ruin infrastructure in Washington. Their analysis found that, because of the vehicle's distributed weight and track pads, the streets of the nation's capital would not be compromised.

The parade is also expected to include helicopter, fighter jet, transport aircraft as well as historical military plane flyovers. Troops in period uniforms representing the past, present and future forces will march in the parade, as well.

Inspiration from France
The ceremony is said to be largely inspired by Trump's front-row seat at France's Bastille Day military parade in Paris.

In September, Trump met with French President Emmanuel Macron and recalled how much he enjoyed watching the parade. "It was a tremendous day, and to a large extent because of what I witnessed, we may do something like that on July 4 in Washington down Pennsylvania Avenue," Trump said.

"We're going to have to try to top it, but we have a lot of planes going over and a lot of military might, and it was really a beautiful thing to see, and representatives from different wars and different uniforms," he added.

The U.S. has not held a major military parade in Washington since 1991 to mark the end of Operation Desert Storm. That parade reportedly cost approximately $8 million and was paid for with about $3 million in government funds and the rest with private donations.

The $92 million figure dwarfs the $12 million estimate that was first reported by CNN last month. As noted at the time, the military parade was expected to cost as much as the "tremendously expensive" bilateral military exercise that Trump swiftly canceled with South Korea in the wake of the historic Singapore summit.

"We save a fortune by not doing war games, as long as we are negotiating in good faith – which both sides are!" Trump tweeted after meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore.

After meeting with the reclusive leader from the North to negotiate a nuclear deal, Trump said: "I think it's inappropriate to be having war games. No. 1, we save money. A lot. And No. 2, it really is something that I think they [North Korea] very much appreciated." Trump also said that flying U.S. Air Force bombers in regional training missions is another drain on resources.

Trump's move falls out of step with the Pentagon, which has maintained that the joint exercises are routine, purely defensive and vital to maintaining readiness on the Korean Peninsula.

There are currently 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, a legacy of the Korean War, which ended in 1953 in an armistice that left the two Koreas technically still at war.
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