US Election 2020

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Tero
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:23 am

https://www.alternet.org/2019/08/its-no ... hopes-wsj/

...Trump’s approval with senior citizens is only 2 points higher than the national average — and these voters want him defeated in 2020 by a margin of 48 to 41.

Some elderly voters are losing patience with his presidency. “He’s trying to trumpet himself to the public to make them feel as good about him as he does … What I would like to see him do is shut his mouth,” said 69-year-old retired California firefighter union president David Smith, who is currently an undecided voter. David Freund, a 65-year-old Indiana truck driver, said that he is a “Biden man” because “according to all the polls, he could beat Trump.”

Trump cannot win re-election without solid support from elderly voters. The WSJ/NBC poll finds that Trump’s approval with voters aged 18 to 34 is just 33 percent, and Democratic candidates have a broad package of policies attractive to younger voters like student loan forgiveness and climate action. So if senior voters jump ship, it is hard to imagine who would be left in the president’s camp.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:16 pm

Only Biden and Sanders can safely beat Trump in Wisconsin at this point
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:41 pm

A CBS News poll found that 78% of Democratic voters in early primary states rate climate change as a “very important” issue, putting it ahead of income inequality and jobs, and suggesting environmental action growing increasingly important to left-leaning voters. What do you think?
“Leave it to Democratic voters to place importance on losing issues like an existential threat to the world.”

KIER BERRY • SYSTEMS ANALYST
https://www.theonion.com/poll-finds-cli ... 1837189820
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:09 pm

elsewhere
There was an episode of Pinky & the Brain in which he ran for President, and all of his megalomaniacal proclamations during the campaign got interpreted by the listeners as something they wanted.

Brain: If anyone opposes me, I'll teach them a lesson.
Mother with multiple children: Finally, someone who supports better education.

Brain: Submit to me, and nobody will get hurt.
Elderly man in a nursing home: Nobody will get sick? Health care!! Great health care!!


I'd rather have the Brain in office.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:44 am

She's a fighter! She's our national prostate exam!
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Joe » Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:07 pm

This could be a wrinkle.

Electoral College Members Can Defy Voters’ Wishes, Court Rules
In a ruling that kicks at the foundation of how America chooses presidents, a federal appeals court on Tuesday said members of the Electoral College, who cast the actual votes for president, may choose whomever they please regardless of a state’s popular vote.

The ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit in Denver said Colorado was out of bounds in 2016 when it canceled the vote of a so-called faithless elector named Michael Baca. Mr. Baca, a Democrat, wrote in the name of John Kasich, a Republican who was Ohio’s governor at the time, even though Hillary Clinton carried Colorado, earning its nine electoral votes. The secretary of state replaced Mr. Baca with another elector who then voted for Mrs. Clinton.

“The text of the Constitution makes clear that states do not have the constitutional authority to interfere with presidential electors who exercise their constitutional right to vote for the president and vice president candidates of their choice,” the court majority wrote in a split ruling by a three-judge panel.
What could go wrong? :fp:
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:40 am

All the current red states will go Trump, but if Warren carries WI, PA etc. it will go to some ridiculous Florida type of recount

Warren leads among likely Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin with 29 percent of the vote, according to the Crooked/Change Research poll. Sanders, with 24 percent, and Biden, at 20 percent, are the only other candidates in double digits.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Joe » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:00 pm

Okay, so flipping WI and PA leaves it Trump 276 to Warren 262, if I did my math right Let's say this holds up after the recount circus.

There were 7 faithless Electors in 2016, so let's say there's 7 this time and they go Colin Powell 3, Joe Walsh 2, and Ted Cruz 2, all Trump Electors.

Now what happens?
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
"as far as strong, i am hard as a rock and tough as a nail. no one will bring me down. no one. i am the debonator. the tnt. and jesus has my back door pal!" - D. C. Bockemehl
"If you vote for idiots, idiots will run the country." - Dr. Kori Schake

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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:22 pm

well, Rachel Bitecofer gives hopeful data
This year you released your presidential prediction on July 1, showing the Democrats winning a bare majority of 278 electoral votes, just above the 270 needed to win. Trump is at 197, with four toss-up states. But Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are not toss-ups in your model. You write that Trump is in trouble in the Midwest and that there's a profound misunderstanding of how we won those states in 2016. What's at the heart of this misunderstanding, and why does it matter for 2020?

When we hear the punditry talk about what happened in the Midwest, generally speaking they'll say the Midwest swung toward Trump, right? Well, that's only true in two states. In Iowa and Ohio, where Trump cracked 50%, you can genuinely say he won over voters in those states. The others — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — Trump won those states by carrying only a plurality of the vote, and I would categorize that as a win by default. He won somewhere around 46 or 47% of the vote.

The reason that neither candidate was above 50% was that a huge numbers of voters in those states cast what we call protest ballots, and in the polarized era, the average that goes to a protest ballot is about 1.5%. The famous Ralph Nader election, the spoiler in Florida in 2000, that was about 1.5%. In Wisconsin, 6.2% of voters cast protest ballots in 2016. That's an extraordinary amount.

So when you understand the role that third parties made in Trump's victory there in the Midwest, and his inability to crack 50%, you realize that it's a path to victory which was very complex. It becomes heavily tied to the fact that he was up against not just a Democrat, but that particular Democrat the GOP had managed to cause a public opinion backlash toward. That’s certainly not going to be the case in the 2020 cycle.
salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Joe » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:30 pm

Yes, I understand these factors, but let's stick with the scenario I laid out please.

The EC count would be Trump 269, Warren 262, Powell 3, Walsh 2, and Cruz 2. Welcome to the House of Representatives electing the President.

This is the point of my post. Remember? What could possibly go wrong?
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
"as far as strong, i am hard as a rock and tough as a nail. no one will bring me down. no one. i am the debonator. the tnt. and jesus has my back door pal!" - D. C. Bockemehl
"If you vote for idiots, idiots will run the country." - Dr. Kori Schake

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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:34 pm

And did that happen before? What was the max of electors going for third parties, say, since 2000?
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Joe » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:39 pm

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
"as far as strong, i am hard as a rock and tough as a nail. no one will bring me down. no one. i am the debonator. the tnt. and jesus has my back door pal!" - D. C. Bockemehl
"If you vote for idiots, idiots will run the country." - Dr. Kori Schake

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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:50 pm

OK. It happens. But we can't get that detailed yet. We need a nominee first. Then worry about 3rd parties.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Joe » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:16 pm

Yes it happens, and this court decision could make it more likely. 3rd parties aren't the issue here.

The goal of the faithless electors in 2016 was to throw the election to the House. Remember the Hamilton Electors?

But if you don't want to discuss it yet, that's fine. With luck, the Democratic candidate will win with a sufficient margin to render the issue moot. :biggrin:
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
"as far as strong, i am hard as a rock and tough as a nail. no one will bring me down. no one. i am the debonator. the tnt. and jesus has my back door pal!" - D. C. Bockemehl
"If you vote for idiots, idiots will run the country." - Dr. Kori Schake

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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Brian Peacock » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:51 pm

Joe wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:07 pm
This could be a wrinkle.

Electoral College Members Can Defy Voters’ Wishes, Court Rules
In a ruling that kicks at the foundation of how America chooses presidents, a federal appeals court on Tuesday said members of the Electoral College, who cast the actual votes for president, may choose whomever they please regardless of a state’s popular vote.

The ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit in Denver said Colorado was out of bounds in 2016 when it canceled the vote of a so-called faithless elector named Michael Baca. Mr. Baca, a Democrat, wrote in the name of John Kasich, a Republican who was Ohio’s governor at the time, even though Hillary Clinton carried Colorado, earning its nine electoral votes. The secretary of state replaced Mr. Baca with another elector who then voted for Mrs. Clinton.

“The text of the Constitution makes clear that states do not have the constitutional authority to interfere with presidential electors who exercise their constitutional right to vote for the president and vice president candidates of their choice,” the court majority wrote in a split ruling by a three-judge panel.
What could go wrong? :fp:
I think this is a good ruling - no, no, hear me out. It highlights that the Constitution is not the last word on democracy while making clear that citizens' individual votes count for nothing in those states that haven't ratified the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact or similar legislation. Having presidential electors being able to freely decide where to cast their vote regardless of the populus is like company directors deciding how the union should be run.
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