US Election 2020

[Sean Hayden]

that's too good to be real.

edit: the bit about the hipsters in a coffee shop

[Sean Hayden]

Unfortunately, if they really did that, then unless they've approached several other men then this guy's anonymity ain't worth much.

[Galaxian]

Y'all enjoying the circus? Want some more bread? Maybe cheap beer? Kebab? [Nero]

Galaxian is right, it's all a fucking sham. The Rothenblildertrumparians run the fucking thing and the bit we see is like one of those Indonesian shadow puppet shows. While everybody's arguing over utterly banal inconsequentialities the Alien Overlords are looting the fucking planet and stealing our precious bodily fluids. Hey, YOU get probed for 20 minutes and not contribute some bodily fluid. Just try it.
Who was it that said we were actually an alien reality TV show? Only posted once in a great while. Was that here or at RatSkep?

[Tero]

[Tero]

No fucking atheist lesbian Muslims for America!
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... ctability/

[Tero]

Trump approval hovers at 40-45%. His story seems to take punches weekly. Now he is a bad billionaire. I think we are actually at a tipping point, and though his base (30%?) will remain faithful for 2020, 40% does not get you the presidency.

[Scot Dutchy]

It does when the Russians are running things.
This is the simple fact of the 2016 elections:

This election was effectively decided by 107,000 people in these three states. Trump won the popular vote there by that combined amount. That amounts to 0.09 percent of all votes cast in this election.

This is why the American Electoral College vote is so open to manipulation. You are not talking big numbers in fact this stadium has enough people to win the election:

Michigan's "Big House" stadium.


Which is why he will win again.

Source:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... e-margins/

[pErvinalia]

...

[Tero]

That may be, but he still has to reach a magical 45% of the popular vote. Whatever electoral college quirks are at hand. He is in fact doing all he can to keep those 3 states. But Wisconsin has already tipped to its Democratic side. It's a pendulum effect.
Nixon won Wisconsin and PA of the rust belt states. But what got him the election was California
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Unit ... l_election
He got the state by 3%
Percentage Nixon 47.82% Humphrey 44.74% (Wallace) 6.72%

[Tero]

Wisconsin is as polarized as ever, but three issues enjoy widespread support: Medical marijuana, Medicaid expansion and a boost in state aid for special education.

Those are just some of the fascinating nuggets from Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll of 800 registered Wisconsin voters.

It's the school's second survey of the year as poll director Charles Franklin digs into the political terrain ahead of the 2020 presidential campaign and looks at the state of play in Madison where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers faces a Republican-led Legislature.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/pol ... 405455002/

Poll: Trump trails Biden, Sanders, Warren in Wisconsin match-ups ...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-p ... -wisconsin

Mar 18, 2019 - The poll showed Biden leading Trump by 8 percentage points in a hypothetical 2020 match-up, 54 percent to 46 percent. Sanders and Warren both had 4 point advantages over Trump, 52 percent to 48 percent. Democrats lost more support among voters than Trump when former Starbucks CEO ...was inserted into the hypothetical match-ups. Biden dipped to 51 percent with Schultz in the mix, with Trump sliding to 45 percent.

Schultz is mulling a presidential run as an Independent.

Wisconsin voters are willing to vote for an Independent vs Biden, but it still does not get Trump the state.

[Forty Two]

Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... 067fb24c69

the electoral map just keeps looking grimmer and grimmer for Donald Trump.

[Forty Two]

Think Trump has a chance? Analysis gives him just 1%. https://www.cnn.com/2015/07/09/politics ... index.html

Relax, Donald Trump Can’t Win
Even before you get to his campaign’s incompetence and lackluster fundraising, the numbers just aren’t on his side.

https://www.thenation.com/article/trump-cant-win/

[Tero]

2020 is not 2016. Trump will have 4 years experience being a professional asshole. The demand for assholes is not as great as the GOP expected.

[Forty Two]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/ ... on-1230495

President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations.

But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses. Despite all these caveats, Trump looks surprisingly good if the old James Carville maxim coined in 1992 — “the economy, stupid” — holds true in 2020.

“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”

Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling, also shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the advantage of incumbency.

“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair’s model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump’s share of the popular vote.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and a regular Trump critic, has been road-testing a dozen different economic models for the 2020 race. At this point, Trump wins in all 12 — and quite comfortably in most of them. The Moody’s models look at economic trends at the state level.

“If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,” Zandi said. “In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.” The Moody’s models look at economic trends at the state level and incorporate some political variables including a president's approval rating.

The Moody’s approach performed well in recent presidential elections, but missed the 2016 result in part because it did not account for a potential drop in Democratic turnout in key swing states. Zandi is trying to correct for that now before rolling out a new model sometime this summer.

[Tero]

"Warren boarded an already crowded bus. Fellow travelers immediately recognized her. One man offered her a thumbs up across the bus. Another woman appeared less pleased -- she muttered that Warren wants to make everything "free," adding that it was unclear the senator could possibly pay for all of her ideas.
After the doors to the bus finally closed and the journey to the plane was underway, Warren began to field questions, much like she does at every campaign event."
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/05/09/politi ... cnn.com%2F