US Election 2020

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Tero
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:55 pm

Tero wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:14 am
Image
The robot.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:46 pm

Look Trump just needs 100,000 idiots.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:48 pm

And they dont have to be real people.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Brian Peacock » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:29 pm

73,000 actually.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by rainbow » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:13 am

Biden prepares for the live debate with Antifa Weapon.
Milkshake.JPG
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/18 ... p-vs-biden
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:10 am

Biden polling less than Hillary in battleground states, BUT there is no Jill Stein third party candidate, so he is getting over 50%.
But there are also nine states where Biden’s margin over Trump is smaller than Clinton’s was at this point in the campaign. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, Biden’s margin over Trump is about 2 to 4 points smaller than Clinton’s was. But he’s also at or very close to 50 percent in each of those states, which wasn’t the case for Clinton. Still, it’s notable that Biden’s margins tend to be lower than Clinton’s in many Rust Belt battleground states. That could be due to Trump’s resiliency in the region, but also perhaps a shift in the pollster methodologies: In 2016, many polls in these states underestimated Trump’s support in part because they didn’t weight by education, an important consideration as white voters without a college degree broke strongly for the president.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:12 am

biden hillary 1.jpg
biden hillary 1.jpg (30.36 KiB) Viewed 72 times
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Brian Peacock » Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:45 am

Psephology is a pseudo-science. :tea:
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:04 pm

oct 19 poll.jpg
oct 19 poll.jpg (59.03 KiB) Viewed 65 times
Polling. If you ignore the white states with leaning indicated, you get 279/120. So the more reliable polling states give Biden the 270. If you give Trump all he can possibly get out of this map, he gets 170.

This is a likely outcome of the election: Trump gets about 200. 220 at most, leaving Biden over 300. In 2016 Trump got 304.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by rainbow » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:50 pm

Tero wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:10 am
Biden polling less than Hillary in battleground states, BUT there is no Jill Stein third party candidate, so he is getting over 50%.
But there are also nine states where Biden’s margin over Trump is smaller than Clinton’s was at this point in the campaign. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, Biden’s margin over Trump is about 2 to 4 points smaller than Clinton’s was. But he’s also at or very close to 50 percent in each of those states, which wasn’t the case for Clinton. Still, it’s notable that Biden’s margins tend to be lower than Clinton’s in many Rust Belt battleground states. That could be due to Trump’s resiliency in the region, but also perhaps a shift in the pollster methodologies: In 2016, many polls in these states underestimated Trump’s support in part because they didn’t weight by education, an important consideration as white voters without a college degree broke strongly for the president.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bi ... -her-peak/
It was at about this point before the elections that the FBI announced it was investigating Hillary's emails, giving Trump a boost.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... estigation

:pop: What will somebody discover under a bush, that might suddenly turn the tide? :pop:
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:49 pm

Trump people will use courts to
1 ignore as many mailed votes as possible
obviously not Colorado where there is no in person voting
2 ignore all votes coming in by mail after election, even if postmarked correctly

It is with that second group they will have some success
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Sean Hayden » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:01 pm

The only surprise is that it will be called on election night. People are showing up.

....please let that be true! :hehe:
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:23 pm

When Biden takes over, naming the 500 people every president appoints will be much easier than ever before. Not a single Trump appointee can be kept.
Ratcliffe is. Trumpster
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ratcli ... mpaign.amp

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/ ... ssion=true
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by macdoc » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:41 pm

zing
Reagan's son: We have grifters in the White House

Ron Reagan, son of former President Ronald Reagan and former first lady Nancy Reagan, tells CNN's Ana Cabrera that his father would "be horrified" by the Republican Party of today. He added that the Trump children are profiting off of their father's presidency as "grifters.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... nr-vpx.cnn
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Brian Peacock » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:07 pm

What? Ronald Reagan named his son Ronald Reagan?
Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
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"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

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"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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