Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

[Jason]

I would've thought you guys would be happy to stay in the single market.

[PsychoSerenity]

Well the cabinet has agreed it as of now.

As to the 'botch' there really was no other choice as I see it, unless we were to go down the disastrous route of just breaking all links.

Still has to get through Parliament.

That none of the cabinet have yet resigned suggests that neither remain nor leave Tories care sufficiently to risk a general election. Sad fact about Tories is that they usually do put power above principles. The so-called rebels rarely actually rebel. Whereas there may be sufficient Labour rebels to see this mess through Parliament even if May loses the DUP. We won't know for certain until it's put to the vote but this could very well be what we end up stuck with. Certainly far better than "no deal" despite the rhetoric, but a massive loss from being an influential member of the EU.

[Scot Dutchy]

Three have left already including the Brexit secretary Raab. The game is over for May. This deal is now a poisoned chalice. Nobody wishing to retain any political career will touch it. No deal is looking the bookie's choice.

[Brian Peacock]

Brexit secretary Dominic Raab resigns, saying he cannot back May's deal.

[Svartalf]

What is the deal exactly? the news I get are dreadfully unclear about the nature of the thing... all I get is that 3 ministers have resigned already, and May might just get a no confidence vote in the commons.

[Scot Dutchy]

The only ones reasonably happy with the deal is the Irish government and that says a lot.
Wee Arelene has finally been given her marching orders. She better take wee Billy and his drum with her.

The Guardian's analysis:

Raab's resignation - Snap analysis

Some cabinet resignations matter more than others. Over time we will find out quite how significant this one is, but it is quite conceivable that this could be seen as the move that sunk Theresa May’s Brexit plan. Here are some snap thoughts.

1- Dominic Raab’s decision to resign as Brexit secretary is likely to encourage other Brexiter cabinet minsters to quit too. We don’t know yet if Brexiter cabinet ministers are coordinating their moves today, but we do know that around 11 ministers expressed strong reservations about the deal at yesterday’s cabinet and in politics there is a natural tendency not to allow yourself to be outflanked by people who share your views - particularly if you think there might be a party leadership contest coming at some point in the future where whether or not you supported May’s Brexit plan becomes the defining issue (just as where you stood on the Iraq war has been a defining issues in Labour contests since 2010.)

2 - Even at the best of times, this would be a very serious blow to May’s authority. Brexit secretary is a senior post, and May has now lost two of them within six months. She would have been relying on Raab to help sell her deal to MPs, and to help pave the way for the EU summit scheduled for Sunday 25 November. Now she hasn’t got someone doing that job at a time when it’s most necessarily. (Presumably she will be wary about appointing successors until she knows who else is going to resign.)

3 - But these are not the best of times, and Raab’s resignation is bound to embolden those MPs determined to vote down May’s plans. When David Davis, Raab’s predecessor, and Boris Johnson quit in July over the Chequers plan, their resignations could be used by May to persuade remain-voting Tories that she was moving in their directions. But the arguments that Raab is making (see 9.09am) are identical to those made by Jo Johnson, the remain-voting transport minister who resigned on Friday, and Shailesh Vara, the remain-voting Northern Ireland minister who quit earlier this morning. (See 7.53am.) May wanted to unite both wings of her party; she has - against her.

4 - The Raab resignation may also encourage those Brexiter Tories who are mulling over whether or not to submit letters demanding a vote of no confidence in May. A vote will be held if 48 letters get received. It is very possible that May would win such a vote, because there is no alternative leader with general support in the party. It is also worth pointing out that Raab’s letter was not intended to provoke such a vote; in it, he makes a point of saying his respect for May and her fortitude “remains undimmed”.

5- Will the Brexit vote event take place? Some reports have suggested that the Commons vote on May’s Brexit deal will be tight, or on a knife-edge. That is not correct. Judging by what people are saying currently, the vote looks very one-sided, with May set to lose heavily. It is impossible to know how events will pan out, but governments tend not to schedule votes when they know they are bound to lose, and so some sort of reset is not wholly inconceivable.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... 5fcd49afdf

Another worry for May is the 1922 Committee has received the 48 letters required.

[PsychoSerenity]

Ooh interesting, perhaps some of them will risk a change after all. Sort of puts us back to square one of absolute uncertainty as to what will happen next though. Trouble is, in the meantime the uncertainty left so late in the day is starting to cause serious problems for jobs etc. orders for goods/supplies that need to be made in advance when we don't know if they can be fulfilled.

[Scot Dutchy]

This is a typical British eleventh hour tactic but this time the cool heads of the EU are looking on completely unimpressed at the self devouring of the UK.

[Rum]

They are playing political games, many of them no doubt not even having read the text of the draft agreement (580 pages released only 2 days ago).

From the summaries, I have seen the UK stays in the single market (but loses any influence on its rules - this appears to be the main sticking point for the likes of Boris and Lord Fontleroy Mogg) but we get the rest - i.e. control over borders, full 'independence' etc.

The main advantage of this as I see it is that 'frictionless' trade can continue, which in turn means the Irish question is taken care of.

It is a big price to pay I think, but the problems that will arise if we leave without an agreement would make the cost look like chicken feed.

[Brian Peacock]

...

These resignations confirm a fundamental structural problem with the whole leave prospectus: it was a fantasy, and as such incompatible with the mundane fulfilment of ministerial responsibility. Raab has come to the same conclusion that David Davisand Boris Johnson reached earlier in the year: it is easier to be on the team that accuses the prime minister of failing to deliver majestic herds of unicorns than it is to be stuck with a portfolio that requires expertise in unicorn-breeding...

The Brexit wreckers are slinking away from the rancid mess they’ve made

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard

[Scot Dutchy]

The UK will be controlled by the EU. It will have accept all its rules without having a say in any of them. It will tied into the SM and CU until the EU releases it but NI will always remain in the SM and CU.

[Rum]

Resignations, the pound and UK shares tumbling.

This was all inevitable from the moment the unwashed and stupid masses were allowed to flaunt their ignorant prejudices in one of the daftest referendums in history.

It is hard to see how this will end if the draft agreement is thrown out. Talk of Gove becoming Brexit minister - wtf!?

[PsychoSerenity]

May calls a press conference just to reiterate her insistence that this is the best possible deal. Seems like she's just trying to dissuade certain people and MPs from calling for her resignation. Does Rees-Mogg have the numbers behind him?

[Scot Dutchy]

May calls a press conference just to reiterate her insistence that this is the best possible deal. Seems like she's just trying to dissuade certain people and MPs from calling for her resignation. Does Rees-Mogg have the numbers behind him?

He claims he has. That club he created ERG claims to have 50 members. Whether they will comply is something else.

[Rum]

The problem is the parliamentary arithmetic. Nobody else has enough support as I see it to get any sort of plan or deal passed. I fear it is this deal or a ‘disorderly’ exit.