Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

[Rum]

This back-and-forth twaddling is mind-numbing. Is there going to be a second Brexit referendum or not?

I think it is highly unlikely, however we may well see a vote on a deal that is on offer in due course and it may well be a choice between that deal or remain. The terms of the original referendum were unclear and wooly - that is half the cause of our present ridiculous situation.

[Scot Dutchy]

No deal looks the more probable. Especially if May does not survive.

[Svartalf]

Nope, if anything, the forces opposing a new referendum are stringently outnumbering those that might be in favor...

[Jason]

Thanks guys.

[Scot Dutchy]

Nope, if anything, the forces opposing a new referendum are stringently outnumbering those that might be in favor...

The second referendum thing was a side show. It does not have the legs.

[Svartalf]

and may has committed political suicide, I wonder if she'll even have a constituency to go back to when she's no longer PM.

[Scot Dutchy]

She will still be an MP. She is both at present. If her local party decide to de-select her she would be out of a job.

[Scot Dutchy]

Another trade deal that the UK will miss:

European Union seals major free trade deal with Japan

The deal will create a trading zone comprising 635 million people and a third of global GDP

[Brian Peacock]

This back-and-forth twaddling is mind-numbing. Is there going to be a second Brexit referendum or not?

Who knows? It's down to Parliament. I think it's more likely than it was last weekend, but there's no guarantee.

[Brian Peacock]

...
But I think a second referendum could be more likely under certain circumstances. Regardless of the confidence vote tonight, and regardless of whether the Tories can actually agree on candidates to replace Mrs May, the Parliamentary maths would still be the same, and Parliament would inevitably vote down the negotiated deal. The EU are not inclined to change that deal in any meaningful way - there political responsibilities as well as their legal obligations would not allow it. So MPs might be inclined to boot the matter off to the public in a hurried referendum. In which case the questions would probably be something like...

1. Remain a member of the EU
2. Leave the EU and accept the negotiated deal
3. Leave the EU without a negotiated deal

The one that got more than 2/3rds of the vote would be the winner. Sure, that would be an obvious and manipulative fudge, but it'd probably be something along those lines.

[JimC]

Brian Peacock wrote:

The one that got more than 2/3rds of the vote would be the winner. Sure, that would be an obvious and manipulative fudge, but it'd probably be something along those lines.

With 3 options, the chances of one getting a two thirds vote seem very remote to me. I would expect for the remain vote to be in the high 50s at the most...

[Rum]

Well she won the vote of (no) confidence. One less chaotic factor anyway.

[Svartalf]

I'm surprised, this latest gust is one I did not expect her to be able to weather.

[Rum]

As I said earlier it would be close. It wasn’t actually very close in the end. She won by a decent margin. Let’s hope a little sanity returns. Too much drama!

[JimC]

Perhaps they were thinking that any alternative could only be worse...

Does anybody know whether she picked up any minor concessions in her quick jaunt to the EU? And now she's cleared the air with her own party, will she bring on the parliamentary vote on her Brexit plan? EU leaders would have been wise to offer a few minor concessions, which may make it possible for her to get it through parliament...