Australian elections on the 2nd of July

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Svartalf
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by Svartalf » Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:00 am

it must be lovely, living in a self proclaimed democracy with every other gummint being unelected...
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:01 am

Huh?
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by Svartalf » Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:08 am

I was doing a parrotty on your earlier remark that you elected every other government, that means that the rest is UNelected, neh? very democratic way to handle things I say...
Just like our president using constitutional devices to prevent parliamentary debates on certain highly contested laws
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by Hermit » Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:33 am

Svartalf wrote:I was doing a parrotty on your earlier remark that you elected every other government, that means that the rest is UNelected, neh? very democratic way to handle things I say...
Actually, in Australia every government is elected by popular vote and no Prime Minister ever is.

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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by Svartalf » Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:39 am

reverse to what happens in France, the president and legislature are elected, but the government, (including the PM) isn't.
You mean that every Minister/Secretary or whatever you call them has to be chosen from among the MPs?
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by Hermit » Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:19 pm

Svartalf wrote:reverse to what happens in France, the president and legislature are elected, but the government, (including the PM) isn't.
You mean that every Minister/Secretary or whatever you call them has to be chosen from among the MPs?
Yes. We vote for our local representatives in the lower house and our state reps in the upper. PMs are chosen by members of parliament and in the case of Labor by MPs and caucus. Usually the Prime Minister tuens out to be whoever is the leader of the winning party, but not infrequently there's a palace coup within the party - usually because party members realise or imagine that the incumbent is a losing proposition in regard to the next election. This has happened relatively frequently in recent years, but the tradition of ousting an incumbent PM goes back at least as far as Bob Hawke being replaced by Paul Keating between elections.

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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:59 pm

Well, no decision tonight. Labor can't win outright, but there's a pretty good chance we'll have a hung parliament. Strange election. Despite the Coalition doing better in number of seats, the general mood is that the Coalition has been a massive loser. The real fuck up will be what they have done to the Senate. On phone so couldn't be bothered explaining it, perhaps Hermit will. I can't see how Turnbull could remain after such a disaster. Unless he was expressly opposed to the Senate double dissolution.
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by Hermit » Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:26 pm

Meh. I hope Turnbull does not get the chop. The alternative is a return to who the brother of an ex partner referred to as "The Uglies". He was a vice president of the NSW Young Liberals at the time.

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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by pErvinalia » Sun Jul 03, 2016 1:48 am

Labor has done well in the pre-poll results overnight. On raw data, Labor is ahead of the Coalition in 72 seats vs the Coalition ahead in 66, with 5 seats considered close (within 1%) by the Australian Electoral Commission. Libs are considered to get most of those. The ABC has given 67 to Labor and 65 to Coalition so far. 76 seats are needed for government. Independents are currently ahead in 4 seats (three definite wins) and the Greens have won 1 seat.

So, it's going to come down to postal votes. That means at least another week, possible two till we know the result of the election. :sigh:
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by JimC » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:48 am

To me, the lower house looks likely to be:

Labor 72 seats
Coalition 73 seats
Greens 1 seat
Xenophon team (leaning to Labor on some issues) 1 seat
Independents 3 seats
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by Svartalf » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:50 am

Xenophon team?

OK, I wikied it
interesting party, but irrealistic... if the current state budget of the gummint is AUD 60M thanks toi foreign made goods, it will have to rise massively to buy all australian.
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by JimC » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:59 am

If Labor can negotiate the support of Xenophon, the Greens and 2 of the independents, it can form a government...
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by Svartalf » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:09 am

otherwise it's coalition all over again...
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by JimC » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:31 am

Yep...
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Re: Australian elections on the 2nd of July

Post by pErvinalia » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:17 am

Even worse, as it will be Coalition with the sociopath, yet intelligent and charismatic, Scott Morrison as PM (after they turf Turnbull). :o

Regarding the independents, there is the North Queensland maverick, Bob Katter, who's basically a National (one half the Coalition party) without having to bend over and take Liberal (the other half of the coalition) dick instead of getting anything done for the rural areas or farmers. So he will go either way, depending on what the government is asking of him. Cathy McGowan, who supports the ABCC (the alleged reason for the election in the first place; not that we heard a peep about it during the campaign), but not sure of her other policy positions. Xenophon's candidate, who used to work for the Liberal member (in Australia, that doesn't mean she is a Liberal) who she just defeated. Dunno her policies, but she repeated Xenophon's main things - centrist with a strong focus on corruption (she wants a federal ICAC (Independent Commission Against Corruption); neither major party wants that, for obvious reasons), Australian content and services in government contracts, and winding back poker machine numbers. Andrew Wilkie, a former intelligence officer who blew the whistle, is definitely on the left. There might be another XEnophon candidate if they get lucky.

The real chaos will be in the Senate where there looks to be more independents/greens than the last senate. A total fuck up by the Coalition as the purpose of the "double dissolution" of the senate was to clear out the ferals and get a senate that would be more likely to pass their neoliberal bullshit policies (that have been blocked for the last 3 years). Xenophon could get 3-4 seats, Hanson is going to get 2 possibly 3, Lazarus I think is looking to retain(?), Lambie will get two, the criminal - Derryn Hinch got in. Greens might even end up losing one to the indies.

Basically, the Coalition fucked this election so hard. I reckon it must rank close to Hewson losing the "un-losable election" in 1994(?).
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"The Western world is fucking awesome because of mostly white men" - DaveDodo007.
"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
"Seth you are a boon to this community" - Cunt.
"You know you blokes didn't criticize Obama. You're lying. - Forty Two. Umm - http://rationalia.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=42144

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