Social turmoil on its way?

[Blind groper]

This is taken from three book reviews in the latest New Scientist magazine, from 14 February, page 46.

These books predict a time coming when automation and robotics will take over almost all jobs. We know that some newspapers even today use a computer program to write news stories, based on incoming news reports. We know that manufacturing, due to automation and 3D printers, is likely to shed pretty much all workers jobs.

We are faced with the likelihood, that in a few decades (within the lifetime of most people on this forum), 99% of all the adults in our various societies will have no chance whatever of getting a job. The other 1% will be the very rich who can invest their money to make money.

I see no alternative to restructuring society. What as, is a subject for debate. The current capitalist system has worked well, but looks as if it will be a disaster for the future. But what do we replace it with, that will permit everyone to have a decent standard of living?

We need to note that productivity will rise. Producing food, clothing, and other goods and services for the multitude will be easy. But how do we reorganise ourselves to make sure that all those people get a fair share?

If we do nothing, then 99% of the population will starve. Such is a recipe for bloody revolution. What should we do to reorganise society?

[JimC]

A major issue is that humans, by and large, are happier if they have at least some productive activities that achieve goals and get shit done. For most people, a lotus-eating existence is psychologically damaging (sure, the range of possible "activities" is huge, and they don't have to be structured like current jobs, but they have to have purpose and meaning...)

[Warren Dew]

Kind of like the industrial revolution eliminated 99% of jobs. What do that 99% without jobs do today, anyway?

[JimC]

Kind of like the industrial revolution eliminated 99% of jobs. What do that 99% without jobs do today, anyway?

I know what you are getting at, although it was nowhere near 99%. You are saying that new technologies at the time created new jobs as well as eliminating old ones.

However, there is no certainty that this pattern can continue indefinitely, particularly if robotics starts to eat into the "people caring for other people" type jobs...

[PsychoSerenity]

There are a couple of good videos in this thread on RatSkep about advances in technology, and particularly AI, that will make much of human labour obsolete. Interestingly in both of them there was a suggestion of a universal basic income as a sensible step to rebalancing society in light of this. Long term I see no reason why we shouldn't head towards a star-trek type society where all basic needs can so easily be provided for that people are freed to spend their time on self improvement and/or to contribute to society in whatever way they can for the betterment of all.

[pErvinalia]

Kind of like the industrial revolution eliminated 99% of jobs. What do that 99% without jobs do today, anyway?

As Jim said, I as well know what you are getting at. But I thinks it's very easy to argue the two are nothing like each other. The industrial revolution created new jobs for humans that the new machines couldn't do. This is different now, as machines will replace us for the thinking jobs as well. Once they can largely think for themselves, build themselves and program themselves, there's not much room left for the majority of people. This is a real dilemma. I can't remember who it was who famously said back in the 50's or 60's(?) that with technological advances and productivity increases we will all be able to enjoy a 2 day work week or the like. Unfortunately, that will never happen under capitalism. I'm really not sure what the answer is. I suspect societies will collapse well before the point that you get 30-40% unemployment, let alone 90%. There's other failings in capitalism and ecosystem management that will see a collapse from them before the "rise of the machines". But if we don't collapse, then we will definitely be a mess once we get widespread machine automation and intelligence.

[pErvinalia]

There are a couple of good videos in this thread on RatSkep about advances in technology, and particularly AI, that will make much of human labour obsolete. Interestingly in both of them there was a suggestion of a universal basic income as a sensible step to rebalancing society in light of this. Long term I see no reason why we shouldn't head towards a star-trek type society where all basic needs can so easily be provided for that people are freed to spend their time on self improvement and/or to contribute to society in whatever way they can for the betterment of all.

That's the utopia, but the competitive capitalist profit motive and the insidious doctrine of neoliberalism will make it exceedingly hard to get to that point.

[piscator]

There are a couple of good videos in this thread on RatSkep about advances in technology, and particularly AI, that will make much of human labour obsolete. Interestingly in both of them there was a suggestion of a universal basic income as a sensible step to rebalancing society in light of this. Long term I see no reason why we shouldn't head towards a star-trek type society where all basic needs can so easily be provided for that people are freed to spend their time on self improvement and/or to contribute to society in whatever way they can for the betterment of all.

Artificial shortages and rentseeking is the future, son. You'll all work in either food service, entertainment, or military service to buy what robots spin up from sunlight and protect with copyright. It's already here.

[cronus]

When men are not doing anything productive they return to their ape-like instincts of wanting to be a warrior on the hunt, fighting the other team and following the leader with the loudest voice. This will be normalised and re-packaged as entertainment - similar to The Hunger Games. What will happen is the very rich and their brown-nosers will live in castles of modern design....whilst techies keep the machines running and war will wage feudal style between these fortresses of modernity. It'll be like a sci-fi dystopia/utopia depending your luck and allegiances. Make a good movie. That's how it'll be. Most can't stand doing nothing for long periods like a damn monk - prefer to shoot at the other guy.

[JimC]

Scumple, I reckon you could make a good living writing scripts for dystopia entertainment...

[mistermack]

I think some of the first jobs to go will be drivers and prostitutes.

Robot cars and trucks are already here, and can only get better, and that goes for prozzies too.

Having said that, once your car can drive you home safely, the pubs will get a new lease of life, as drinking and driving will be a thing of the past.
So I'm predicting pubs full of ex truck drivers and prozzies. Should be fun.

[Pappa]

Society does a pretty good job of reorganising itself as and when required, without any need for intrrvention. Humans are resourceful and adaptable. They tend to change their daily routine a bit if the alternative is starving to death.

[JimC]

Society does a pretty good job of reorganising itself as and when required, without any need for intrrvention. Humans are resourceful and adaptable. They tend to change their daily routine a bit if the alternative is starving to death.

...but only up to a certain point. I have no idea whether future crises will push us beyond that point, and neither does any other pundit...

[MiM]

There are a couple of good videos in this thread on RatSkep about advances in technology, and particularly AI, that will make much of human labour obsolete. Interestingly in both of them there was a suggestion of a universal basic income as a sensible step to rebalancing society in light of this. Long term I see no reason why we shouldn't head towards a star-trek type society where all basic needs can so easily be provided for that people are freed to spend their time on self improvement and/or to contribute to society in whatever way they can for the betterment of all.

In the Nordic countries, or at least in Finland, we have already for some time had a serious debate on whether to go for universal basic income or not. We are paying benefits to the unemployed anyway, so in some ways you can argue that we have it already. At least in the beginning this would be very small, only providing a very basic living, but I kind of believe this is the way society will go sooner or later, and maybe sometime in the future this income would be big enough to provide even a decent living.

One would think that the rich would understand that it is in their own interest to keep the masses tolerably happy, instead of having to fence them off in increasingly brutal ways

[JimC]

There are a couple of good videos in this thread on RatSkep about advances in technology, and particularly AI, that will make much of human labour obsolete. Interestingly in both of them there was a suggestion of a universal basic income as a sensible step to rebalancing society in light of this. Long term I see no reason why we shouldn't head towards a star-trek type society where all basic needs can so easily be provided for that people are freed to spend their time on self improvement and/or to contribute to society in whatever way they can for the betterment of all.

In the Nordic countries, or at least in Finland, we have already for some time had a serious debate on whether to go for universal basic income or not. We are paying benefits to the unemployed anyway, so in some ways you can argue that we have it already. At least in the beginning this would be very small, only providing a very basic living, but I kind of believe this is the way society will go sooner or later, and maybe sometime in the future this income would be big enough to provide even a decent living.

One would think that the rich would understand that it is in their own interest to keep the masses tolerably happy, instead of having to fence them off in increasingly brutal ways

In some cases, the rich only learn that lesson as they are being hung from lamp posts...