Social turmoil on its way?

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Blind groper
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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by Blind groper » Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:28 am

Just a comment on scumple's concern about resource scarcity.

There was an article on exactly that in the latest New Scientist. I was interested to see that it pretty much supported what I have been saying for years. That is : resource scarcity is an illusion. It is not that resources are scarce. It is just that we sometimes lack the means to extract the resources that are there.

When China several years ago decided to restrict exports of vital metals used in electronics, there was a kind of panic. But now, the west has increased its own extraction of those metals, and the panic is over, and we have the resources for many decades, with more available as we develop the technology.

People frequently go into disaster prophet mode, and predict assorted resources will become unavailable, and cause society to collapse. The normal outcome of such predictions is being proved wrong.

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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by JimC » Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:55 am

Even when all basic needs have been met, there will still be rare luxury goods that are desirable to many, but difficult to obtain. If only by barter, people will "work" hard to get rarer goods, if only for the prestige value their possession gives...
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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by Blind groper » Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:35 am

That may be true, Jim, but how does that worker compete with a robot that works 24/7/52 at twice the speed he can?

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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by JimC » Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:52 am

Blind groper wrote:That may be true, Jim, but how does that worker compete with a robot that works 24/7/52 at twice the speed he can?
Well one example is via producing artworks. Another would by being a sympathetic carer for an elderly or sick person. Also, I would want my speciality gin made by a distiller who can expertly taste as he goes...

Essentially, there will always be things that only humans can do well, and the goods or services produced in that way will be scarcer and more desirable than the easily available materials...
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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by Blind groper » Tue Feb 24, 2015 7:59 am

I find myself sceptical about that Jim.

For example, a robot making gin could have a built in liquid chromatograph, capable of much finer and more accurate measurements than a mere human palate.

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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by JimC » Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:17 am

Blind groper wrote:I find myself sceptical about that Jim.

For example, a robot making gin could have a built in liquid chromatograph, capable of much finer and more accurate measurements than a mere human palate.
Blasphemy! :mob:
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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:18 pm

:lol:
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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by laklak » Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:58 pm

I don't care how good your robot is, my fried chicken will beat the fuck out of his.
Yeah well that's just, like, your opinion, man.

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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by pErvinalia » Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:59 pm

Sex robots will be good, though. While we'll all be unemployed, at least we will get a good shagging any time we want!
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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by Warren Dew » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:35 am

JimC wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:Kind of like the industrial revolution eliminated 99% of jobs. What do that 99% without jobs do today, anyway?
I know what you are getting at, although it was nowhere near 99%. You are saying that new technologies at the time created new jobs as well as eliminating old ones.
Quite the contrary. The industrial revolution was all about replacing human labor with fossil fuels and other energy sources, producing goods in greater quantities with less labor, and thus destroying jobs.

Yet, somehow, when there is idle labor around, uses for it are found - as long as, as I believe Pappa alludes to, working is kept better than the alternative.

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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by pErvinalia » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:57 am

Warren Dew wrote:
JimC wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:Kind of like the industrial revolution eliminated 99% of jobs. What do that 99% without jobs do today, anyway?
I know what you are getting at, although it was nowhere near 99%. You are saying that new technologies at the time created new jobs as well as eliminating old ones.
Quite the contrary. The industrial revolution was all about replacing human labor with fossil fuels and other energy sources, producing goods in greater quantities with less labor, and thus destroying jobs.

Yet, somehow, when there is idle labor around, uses for it are found - as long as, as I believe Pappa alludes to, working is kept better than the alternative.
But it allowed the creation of many new jobs that were opened up by the new technologies. The situation in the OP is fundamentally different, as machines will increasingly be able to do everything that humans can do, only faster, for longer hours, with far less mistakes (and therefore compensation payouts and lawsuits). And they will be able to build, program, and maintain themselves. The two situations are barely even comparable.
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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by Warren Dew » Wed Feb 25, 2015 8:40 am

There wasn't anything opened up by new technologies. Anything that was opened up was opened up by the availability of labor.

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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by pErvinalia » Wed Feb 25, 2015 8:53 am

Warren Dew wrote:There wasn't anything opened up by new technologies. Anything that was opened up was opened up by the availability of labor.
Yeah, steam power didn't open up any new jobs at all. :roll:

And labour is of no value when there is no need for labour. That's the whole point about this. Eventually machines will do virtually everything.
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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by laklak » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:19 pm

If there's no social turmoil then I've wasted all that dosh buying ammo.
Yeah well that's just, like, your opinion, man.

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Re: Social turmoil on its way?

Post by Pappa » Wed Feb 25, 2015 5:45 pm

Blind groper wrote:I like the idea of a minimum income to everyone. However, the amounts mentioned so far are too small. $US 10,000 per year is ludicrous. $US 50,000 is more like what is needed. Bear in mind that the automation and roboticisation of society will involve a massive increase in productivity, and the wealthy who own those assets will have so damn much money that we could triple their taxes.
Surely all the rare elements required for the electronics would be very expensive? I expect that, as we often see now, paying a human to do a job that could be done by a machine will be cheaper in many cases.

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