Violent crime still going down.

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Seth
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Violent crime still going down.

Post by Seth » Mon Feb 03, 2014 6:24 am

Dang inconvenient facts that blow away stupid assertions that more guns causes more crime.... :lay:

DOJ Report: Firearm-Related Murders Down 39% Since 1993
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by AWR Hawkins 2 Feb 2014, 4:40 AM PDT post a comment
A DOJ Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) "special report" shows that "firearm-related" homicides fell by 39 percent between 1993 and 2011.

It also showed that violent crime--or "nonfatal firearm-related violent victimization against persons aged 12 or older"--declined by 70% over the same time period.

The BJS report was released in May 2013, but was under-reported amid the push for new gun control laws. The information in it is detrimental to many of the gun control arguments which were being propounded at the time.

For instance, while Democrats in various parts of the country were pushing legislation to end the "gun show loophole," the BJS report showed that "among state prison inmates who possessed a gun at the time of [their] offense, less than 2 percent bought their gun at a flea market or gun show."

And a subsection of the report focused on 1997 to 2004 showed that only two percent of state inmates and three percent of federal inmates used "a military-style semiautomatic or fully automatic" in the commission of their crime.

The success of the gun control lobby was evidenced by an LA Times column which ran at the same time as the BJS report. According to the Times, although "gun crime...plunged in the United States since its peak in the middle of the 1990s...few Americans are aware of the dramatic drop, and more than half believe gun crime has risen."
"Seth is Grandmaster Zen Troll who trains his victims to troll themselves every time they think of him" Robert_S

"All that is required for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." Edmund Burke

"Those who support denying anyone the right to keep and bear arms for personal defense are fully complicit in every crime that might have been prevented had the victim been effectively armed." Seth

© 2013/2014/2015/2016 Seth, all rights reserved. No reuse, republication, duplication, or derivative work is authorized.

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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by rainbow » Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:01 am

By carefully selecting statistics you can also show that Gay Marriage causes Libertarianism
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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Hermit » Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:13 am

You speak of inconvenient facts while reciting the "more guns less crime" mantra ad nauseam?

:irony:

Four times now I've asked you to explain where one can see causality, or even correlation between gun ownership and crime in this graph provided by a pro-gun site. Will you fail to attempt this for a fifth time?

Image

Same goes for Blind Groper. Both of you are stuck in the rut of your respective idée fixe.
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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Blind groper » Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:55 am

I have posted references that show clearly that murder rates are higher in American states with more guns. It is also very true that murder rates are higher in countries with more guns, at least among the OECD nations.

Crime overall does not depend on gun ownership. It is murder specifically that is related to gun ownership.

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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by JimC » Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:02 am

Lots of heavy shit going down out on those mean streets...
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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Hermit » Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:18 pm

After taking some time to look up some more actual facts I finished up exporting this table of statistics into a spreadsheet and sorted them to produce a couple of graphs.

Blind Groper, would you be so kind as to match your assertion that more guns equal more murders with this graph?

Image

And, Seth, would you please do likewise with your contrary one with this one? I'll be happy to provide you with another one that shows that you wrong in regard to your more general assertion that "more guns equals less crime", once you have replied to the question I have directed to you on five previous occasions.

Image

Frankly, I don't see those graphs supporting either of your assertions, but don't let the facts they are based on get in the way of your respective claims, will you now?

No. Thought not.
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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Tero » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:29 pm

It's not the guns. It's the Obama socialism. Now that they cut food stamps, guns will have to come out again.

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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Audley Strange » Mon Feb 03, 2014 4:08 pm

I still say violent crime is falling in many places with or without restictions in gun laws, because of mobile phone use, predominantly (there are other major factors). If everyone can film you committing a crime there is less opportunity to do so anonymously.
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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Tero » Mon Feb 03, 2014 4:29 pm

You just have to shoot all the witnesses and crush all the phones. Simples!

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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Blind groper » Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:32 pm

http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firea ... and-death/

The sad thing about gun statistics in the USA is that there are none. There is no legal requirement for any authority to retain statistics on how many guns are in civilian possession. This leaves researchers to rely on surveys.

That means that, whatever data is quoted, it is open to suspicion, based on the simple fact that tose with a bias will report their bias. John Lott, for example, who made millions of dollars pushing the NRA line of more guns and less crime, reports opposite results from surveys to researchers from Harvard University. You may argue about who is correct. The man who made the money, or the academics who made no money.

I have seen the results of three surveys on gun ownership over time. One showed an increase, and two showed a fall. Which are correct?

One thing that is known for sure, is that there has been a fall in murder rates throughout the world. That fall is even seen in sub-Saharan Africa. Since it is universal, we can assume the main driver of that reduction in murder rate is independent of the level of gun ownership.

However, within the USA, things are a bit different. Harvard studies (reference above), relying on surveys of which states have the highest gun ownership, show clearly that states with more guns have higher murder rates and higher suicide rates. That does not change the fact that murder rates overall are falling. But it does show that the murders that continue are related to gun ownership.

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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Hermit » Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:13 pm

Blind groper wrote:...it does show that the murders that continue are related to gun ownership.
How unfortunate that the article only cites references that are not easily looked up. Apart from that, it's just a litany of fact-free assertions.

Now, referring to matters of actual facts, would you please relate your claim that there is a correlation between gun ownership and murder to the graphs I have provided four posts above yours?
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould

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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by FBM » Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:30 pm

Hermit wrote:After taking some time to look up some more actual facts I finished up exporting this table of statistics into a spreadsheet and sorted them to produce a couple of graphs.

Blind Groper, would you be so kind as to match your assertion that more guns equal more murders with this graph?

Image

And, Seth, would you please do likewise with your contrary one with this one? I'll be happy to provide you with another one that shows that you wrong in regard to your more general assertion that "more guns equals less crime", once you have replied to the question I have directed to you on five previous occasions.

Image

Frankly, I don't see those graphs supporting either of your assertions, but don't let the facts they are based on get in the way of your respective claims, will you now?

No. Thought not.
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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Blind groper » Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:11 pm

http://www.bu.edu/news/2013/09/13/new-r ... homicides/
Hermit wrote: Now, referring to matters of actual facts, would you please relate your claim that there is a correlation between gun ownership and murder to the graphs I have provided four posts above yours?
Hermit

You are basing your argument on a fallacy. I have never said that gun ownership is the only factor determining violent crime rates. In fact, I have begun a thread discussing the effect of the vigilante mind set, which appears to be just as important.

Your so-called leading question above has validity only if I claimed it was all due to level of gun ownership. I have never said this. ( A correlation is not the same as a claim that a single factor is the only influence.) I have said that gun ownership is a vitally important factor, but not the only one. Vigilante psychology appears to be just as important, if not more so.

However, the Harvard studies have shown clearly that level of gun ownership, state by state, correlates with murder rate. And that result is strong evidence.

The reference above is from Boston University, showing a study that correlates gun ownership with murder rate.

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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Hermit » Tue Feb 04, 2014 12:21 am

How good is your memory, Blind Groper? Less than six hours ago you wrote: "surveys ... show clearly that states with more guns have higher murder rates" and provided a link that is entirely devoid of facts. I provided statistics that show clearly that this is not the case. Nor is Seth's contrary assertion supported by them.
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Re: Violent crime still going down.

Post by Blind groper » Tue Feb 04, 2014 12:40 am

Hermit wrote: I provided statistics that show clearly that this is not the case.
You provided a Wiki reference which you converted to graphs. I provided a Harvard University reference that revealed a clear connection between more guns and more murder state by state.

Since there are no official statistics of gun ownership state by state (or by any other measure), we have to assume that whoever ran the survey knew what he/she was doing. I have more faith in Harvard than in Wiki. You may disagree, and that is your prerogative.

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