China v The US. Do we (the world) need to be worried?

[pErvinalia]

This is from an article more widely about Australia trying to balance its relationship with both China and the US. Seems a worrying development. Cause for any concern?

That agreeable illusion has suddenly become much harder to sustain. At the weekend, China declared an ''Air Defence Information Zone'' over a large area of the East China Sea that includes the Senkaku/Daioyu Islands which are claimed by Japan as well as China.

Beijing now demands that all aircraft flying in this area must identify themselves to Chinese military authorities and follow their instructions or face ''defensive emergency measures''. China has no right to demand this over another country's territory, so if Japan submits to China's demands it would, in effect, be abandoning its claim to the islands, which means meekly accepting that China now has the power to push it around.

If Japan defies China's demands it must expect a full-blown air-to-air confrontation with the PLA. America is committed by its alliance to fight alongside Japan if that happens. Both Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Chuck Hegel have swiftly reaffirmed that commitment since Beijing's declaration.

This is by far the most serious escalation yet of tensions between China and Japan. Without exceptional forbearance and diplomacy a clash will only be avoided if one side or the other is willing to make a humiliating backdown. If a clash happens, the chance of it escalating into a wider China-Japan conflict is very high. The chance then of America being drawn in to support Japan seems very high. And the chance that Australia would be pressed to support America seems very high.

All this poses a very immediate risk. But it also exposes the wishful thinking that guides Australia's long-term policies, because it makes nonsense of the idea that China is not seriously challenging America in Asia. The Chinese understand perfectly well what they are doing. As they increase pressure on Japan, they also increase pressure on America, because if America does not support Japan, its regional leadership is finished.

So as Beijing courts a showdown with Japan, it also is deliberately confronting America. Beijing must presumably assume that, despite its affirmations, Washington would back down rather than risk nuclear war. We don't know whether, if it came to the crunch, it would be proved right or wrong. But either way, the Chinese must know they are running an enormous risk, so there is no mistaking the seriousness of their intention to challenge America in Asia.

http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott ... z2liIJUOud

[JimC]

The South China sea, its islands and mineral resources do seem to be the locus for territorial clashes...

For future historians, the Senkaku/Daioyu Islands may have the same resonance as a certain Arch Duke of the Hapsburg's...

rEv, you're a lot closer to the drifting clouds of fallout that me, mate...

[Jason]

I flipped a coin and it came up heads, and I don't have to tell you what that means. Do I?*

*Colbert Report reference

[DaveDodo007]

The Chinese are a very pragmatic race, time means nothing to them. They have the patience of a sai...erm I mean a patient person. They are just letting the USA know of their intent, they with act upon it in maybe three centuries from now. So warn your great, great, great, great, great grand children.

[Robert_S]

Turks, as a race, are partial to blue. Lavender means nothing to them.

Why do ya gotta put it just that way?

[FBM]

Korea's got their own version of it: Outcry as China maps new air defense zone.

[Clinton Huxley]

I think this Chinese Air Defence Zone covers (unoccupied) islands (ok, rocks) that the US administers - booty from WWII. Used as a bombing range until the 70s, supposed to go back to Japan when Uncle Sam had finished with 'em but never did.....so the US has its own dog in this fight.

[FBM]

I think China can bet on Korea and Japan not uniting against them. Korea and Japan have their on ongoing and bitter dispute over Dokto/Takeshima, and Korea and China both have gripes about the "comfort women" (read: sex slaves) issue.

[Clinton Huxley]

Aye, the question is, will the US back up its local allies or not? I can't really see it escalating to a hot war but there's $$$ and cheap smart-phones at stake....

[FBM]

Yeah, China has already responded to the US with a polite "STFU." I have a feeling teh gummit will act in WalMart's best interest on this one.

[pErvinalia]

Turks, as a race, are partial to blue. Lavender means nothing to them.

Why do ya gotta put it just that way?

What?

[FBM]

I think he's pointing out Dave's (apparent) racial stereotyping. If you think Chinese people are patient, try standing in line with them.

Edit: Shit. I just did it, too, didn't I? We crackers just can't help...nvm.

[Robert_S]

I think he's pointing out Dave's (apparent) racial stereotyping. If you think Chinese people are patient, try standing in line with them.

Edit: Shit. I just did it, too, didn't I? We crackers just can't help...nvm.

It happens from time to time, but I try not to cultivate it in myself nor allow others to do so casually.

[pErvinalia]

It's not necessarily racial stereotyping. It could be cultural stereotyping. That latter can be reasonably acceptable.

[Robert_S]

It's not necessarily racial stereotyping. It could be cultural stereotyping. That latter can be reasonably acceptable.

Yeah, but when you use the word "race"...