The threat of a war in Iran hasn’t gone away
One issue we’ve been keeping a wary eye on over the past few months is Iran’s attempts to get the bomb.
Cutting through the rumour and counter-rumour, the issue boils down to three simple facts. 1) Iran wants to get the bomb, 2) Israel (and others) think that this would be a disaster, while 3) the White House wants the whole issue to go away.
For the past few weeks things looked like they might have been getting better. Iran seemed to have its hands full with other problems, including defending its brutal ally in Damascus. After some false starts, sanctions seem to be finally hitting Iran’s economy. There was even hope that the Saudi decision to increase oil output would keep prices falling.
Taken together, these two factors would hit Iran’s export revenues. This could force Tehran to make real concessions. Indeed, a recent poll on a state website suggests that most people in Iran want to cut a deal.
Sadly, it doesn’t seem to have got through to their leaders. Indeed, Tehran seems to have doubled down, with politicians threatening again earlier this week to shut off a key waterway to countries that support sanctions, and speed up enrichment. This has helped pushed oil prices upwards (though the European deal has also played a role in crude’s resurgence). However, this may only be the start. Here’s why the crisis is entering a critical phase.
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