Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

[pErvinalia]

Financial outcomes will decide what happens, not ideology. You will be proven wrong. Bookmark this post and check back here in 3 years time to see if the UK's economy is 50% smaller.

[rainbow]

Financial outcomes will decide what happens, not ideology. You will be proven wrong. Bookmark this post and check back here in 3 years time to see if the UK's economy is 50% smaller.

That might depend on how you measure it.

The Pound will probably have to devalue to make the UK competitive, so in Pounds the economy will be about the same.

My guess.

[pErvinalia]

Measure it in ppp dollars. It won't be 50% smaller.

[Scot Dutchy]

It's pointless discussing anything with you. You can't present a cogent argument, nor follow one.

You dont understand as do many UK Brexiteers the workings of the EU so until you finally realise how it works discussion on the matter is pointless.

The UK is fucked because it fucked itself. It expects the EU to help it after insulting it for years. We finally have leaders in the EU that finally see the games that the UK have been playing and going to put an end to them.

[Hermit]

The UK wont have any well even now it is up to its eyes in debt.

National debt has no bearing of a nation's economic health. If it did, the Netherlands (525% of GDP in 2016) would have a lot more to worry about than the UK (314%) or Australia (126%) for that matter.

You seem to be clueless of how the EU works. It is based on strong principles...

The EU actually started by the name of European Economic Community. Its underlying principle and raison d'être was and remains to act as a trading block, in which the economies of member countries are advantaged through this community's collective strength against other trading blocks and individual nations. Principles that were added later are little more than decoration. You'll find out just how easily they'll be shoved aside by one means or another the moment they become a serious impediment to the wealth of the few.

Those principles Switzerland experienced when it had to take the four freedoms in its agreement with the EU.

Switzerland decided that it will not join the EU for economic reasons.

The biggest trade the UK has with the EU is financial services which are moving here and what's left is not worth talking about.

Orly? in 2016 the United Kingdom exported US$408.9 billion worth of goods, plus $95 billion of financial services (2014 figure). So, let's say what you call "not worth talking about" makes up a bit more than 80% of the UK's total exports.

There is no doubt that Great Britain will suffer economically because of its decision to leave the EU, but the extent of the damage is nowhere near the region you keep arguing. If you like, we can discuss that issue, but I expect you to support your assertions with facts and figures.

[Scot Dutchy]

Nice bit of cherry picking there once again. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU regarding goods. With services the UK has a surplus. So services are far important than goods for the UK and it is these services they will be losing. The amount of goods is hard to predict but with a hard Brexit sales will drop as will sales from the EU to the UK so less trade and very little in the way of services. So trade with the UK will not be of great significance.

Approximately 44% of the UK’s total exports both in goods and services went to the EU in 2014 (£229bn out of £515bn), with goods exports to the EU accounting for £148bn (65%) of this amount. However, the UK operates a significant trade deficit with the EU in terms of goods (£79bn), meaning that the UK imports more goods from the EU than it sells.

In contrast, the UK operates a surplus in its services trade with the EU, meaning that the UK sells more than it buys. Total services exports to the EU were worth £81.3bn in 2014 while imports were worth £64.2bn, leaving a trade surplus of just over £17bn. Germany (£12.1bn), France (£11.7bn) and the Netherlands (£11bn) are the primary markets for UK services exports.

How important is UK financial services trade with the EU?


These are not huge amounts and will be recovered in other markets.

I dont know where you cherry picked the debt figures but these are up date from July this year.

Dutch Government Debt to GDP 62.30%
United Kingdom 89.30%
Germany 68.30%
Australia 41.10%

Does not look as if the Netherlands has much to worry about.

Netherlands Government Debt to GDP

Why did Switzerland not join the EU? Very complicated and not just economic reasons.
Why isn't Switzerland a part of the EU? Basically it did not wont to.

Here is the background to the EEA and Switzerland.
The European Economic Area (EEA), Switzerland and the North

The four freedoms are part of EU foundations. The bloc is not run for anyone group of countries. To change any of it would take a lot of time. They just cant be shoved aside. You should learn more about how the EU works. These Fact Sheets on the European Union are full of knowledge and details.

[Feck]

How about no fucking Brexshit? How about we admit that the majority of the UK are Tabloid- Newspaper reading xenophobes and admit that we screwed the pooch letting such a stupid idea go to a referendum and all talk of hard or soft is merely arguing If Rover get's kissed first or given a marrow-bone later .

[mistermack]

Like I said, Hitler would have won, if it were not for Britain. It should be obvious, even to the dumbest.

The Russians would have lost without British and US help, and the US would not have helped anyone, if Britain had not been still in the game.

The Polish would have had nowhere to go and no planes to fly.
The utmost bollocks gets written on this thread. Without Britain, Europe and Russia would still be under the Nazis now. The US would be the second biggest power, and China would be nowhere. (That's if the Nazis had left them alone)
And HItler would have got the nukes long before little US. And the rockets to send them with.

How the fuck would they have launched D day without Britain?

You people make I larf.

[Sean Hayden]

He wouldn't have got started without Britain either; overconfident, ever moralizing bastids. :shakefistincrazycircle:

[cronus]

He wouldn't have got started without Britain either; overconfident, ever moralizing bastids. :shakefistincrazycircle:

That's only the Eton educated top. Don't judge everyone here on the arrogant idiocy of the few.

[Feck]

Yes It's true Britain were the Heroes of WWII (Allegedly) ...funny how we ended up paying the bill for it :[ also You mention Poland A country we PROMISED would remain a sovereign state then abandoned to Stalin .It seems Britain can change it's mind
Brexit is an example of when Britain Should change it's mind, for the greater good and not because of impotence or convenience .

[Hermit]

I dont know where you cherry picked the debt figures but these are up date from July this year.

Dutch Government Debt to GDP 62.30%...

The figures are not cherry picked. You're quoting a different set of figures. Government debt is only part of a nation's external debt.

Does not look as if the Netherlands has much to worry about.

Looks like you missed reading the bit where I said "National debt has no bearing of a nation's economic health. If it did, the Netherlands (525% of GDP in 2016) would have a lot more to worry about than the UK (314%) or Australia (126%) for that matter." In other words, I too think that the Netherlands has nothing to worry about in terms of National debt.

Why did Switzerland not join the EU? Very complicated and not just economic reasons

Sure, But the EU is, was and will remain an economic institution, and it is overwhelmingly on economic grounds that the Swiss reject membership of it. Here's why:

The four freedoms are part of EU foundations

Yes, and have a look at them. They are nothing resembling the four freedoms (freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want, freedom from fear) Franklin D. Roosevelt listed in his 1941 State of the Union address. Instead they are freedom of movement of goods, labour, services and capital.

Anyway, you seem to have missed what I am objecting to. The UK will not sink on account of an increase of national debt brought about by Brexit. It will take an economic hit, but both Switzerland and Norway are doing rather well outside the Union, so non-membership does not guarantee the UK's ruin. AS has been pointed out a number of times now, even if 40 or 50% of the UK's economy is with the EU (which of course it is not) its exit will only reduce it somewhat, not end it. The Brits will just buy fewer BMWs and the Europeans fewer Jaguars, so to speak.

[Hermit]

Like I said, Hitler would have won, if it were not for Britain. It should be obvious, even to the dumbest.

"For want of a nail..." I suppose. You can't go on from there to claim that "We saved you wankers from Hitler didn't we." At most you can say that "we" contributed to the Netherlands's liberation. That liberation would not have happened without Stalingrad and the Lend/Lease program. I think the latter two played more of a role than the plucky retreat from Dunkirk and even the Battle of Britain.

[pErvinalia]

I dont know where you cherry picked the debt figures but these are up date from July this year.

Dutch Government Debt to GDP 62.30%...

The figures are not cherry picked. You're quoting a different set of figures. Government debt is only part of a nation's external debt.

Does not look as if the Netherlands has much to worry about.

Looks like you missed reading the bit where I said "National debt has no bearing of a nation's economic health. If it did, the Netherlands (525% of GDP in 2016) would have a lot more to worry about than the UK (314%) or Australia (126%) for that matter." In other words, I too think that the Netherlands has nothing to worry about in terms of National debt.

They probably do. As do we. Debt is one of the biggest problem facing the west now.

[Hermit]

I dont know where you cherry picked the debt figures but these are up date from July this year.

Dutch Government Debt to GDP 62.30%...

The figures are not cherry picked. You're quoting a different set of figures. Government debt is only part of a nation's external debt.

Does not look as if the Netherlands has much to worry about.

Looks like you missed reading the bit where I said "National debt has no bearing of a nation's economic health. If it did, the Netherlands (525% of GDP in 2016) would have a lot more to worry about than the UK (314%) or Australia (126%) for that matter." In other words, I too think that the Netherlands has nothing to worry about in terms of National debt.

They probably do. As do we. Debt is one of the biggest problem facing the west now.

Back to budget cuts then? Bring on austerity measures? Kevin Rudd made a huge mistake when he opened the treasury gates to the tune of over 52 billion bucks in 2009, thus increasing total federal expenditure by 16% in two fell swoops, and the deficit to $58 billion?