The fear of North Korea

[Clinton Huxley]

I wonder what Seth thinks the US should do?

Why do you even need to wonder?

I think he would be in favour of peaceful dialogue based around shared concerns and common understandings.

In a mutually supportive environment and a "no-blame" culture?

[pErvinalia]

Absolutely!

[MiM]

If the nuke detonates above-ground, like with Nagasaki (and I think Hiroshima), the fallout is minimal. Maybe even negligible. The problem with fallout comes when the nuke detonates on or near the ground, lifting up massive quantities of irradiated material into the atmosphere. I seriously doubt NK has the refined tech to detonate their nukes above-ground, so fallout would most likely be a big issue for SK and Japan.

But the SK/USFK response wouldn't be so crude. Fallout would be minimal and the least of the worries, I think.

Both bombs were air bursts. The shock wave wouldn't have been as effective it if was a ground burst. And there was the issue that the impact might have occurred before the detonation, making for an embarrassing moment as the US asked for its bomb back so they could have a do-over.

Airbursts give a lot less fallout, for sure. But not necessarily negligible, in this world of radiation fright.

Detonating it mid-air doesn't need refined tech, especially not compared to constructing a nuke in the first place. Any skydiver has a device that releases the chute at a specified height, if it hasn't already been released. Wouldn't need much more sophistication than that.

[FBM]

NK just recently got a barely functional satellite into orbit. Not sure if they've even been able to weaponize their nukes yet.

[MiM]

NK just recently got a barely functional satellite into orbit. Not sure if they've even been able to weaponize their nukes yet.

Probably they haven't. Especially, if by "weaponizing" you mean something that can be launched on a rocket. But siomething that could be carried in an airplane and dropped, or just exploded, mid-air. Above Seoul

Or maybe: Smuggle it to a third country. Put it aboard a ship destined for some major US port, and explode it there.

[Coito ergo sum]

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I wonder what Seth thinks the US should do?

Why do you even need to wonder?

I think he would be in favour of peaceful dialogue based around shared concerns and common understandings.

Sounds like marxism to me.

[Coito ergo sum]

That is what I think the North Koreans are looking for. Peaceful dialogue and shared concerns. They're not looking to get what they want. They're just looking to be heard and understood.

That's how Obama should commence negotiations with Kim Jong Un: "Un -- I hear you. And your concerns are valid. Tell me more about how South Korea makes you feel..."

[klr]

That is what I think the North Koreans are looking for. Peaceful dialogue and shared concerns. They're not looking to get what they want. They're just looking to be heard and understood.

That's how Obama should commence negotiations with Kim Jong Un: "Un -- I hear you. And your concerns are valid. Tell me more about how South Korea makes you feel..."

Who are you and what have you done with the real CES? I blame parenthood.

[Coito ergo sum]

Kim Jong Un was never given enough hugs as a child.

[FBM]

NK just recently got a barely functional satellite into orbit. Not sure if they've even been able to weaponize their nukes yet.

Probably they haven't. Especially, if by "weaponizing" you mean something that can be launched on a rocket. But siomething that could be carried in an airplane and dropped, or just exploded, mid-air. Above Seoul

SK/USFK monitor all air traffic and have hundreds of fighter jets positioned along the DMZ and around Seoul ready to scramble at a moment's notice, 24/7/365. There's no chance of any NK plane getting anywhere close to Seoul.

Or maybe: Smuggle it to a third country. Put it aboard a ship destined for some major US port, and explode it there.

Now you're talking...

[JimC]

I wonder what Seth thinks the US should do?

Why do you even need to wonder?

I think he would be in favour of peaceful dialogue based around shared concerns and common understandings.

But, my 2 cents worth on issues raised earlier is that, if NK did lob a nuke anywhere, there would be a nuclear response from the US. IMO, the best such response would be targeting their nuclear facilities, rather than their capitol.

[Warren Dew]

What would happen if say NK launched a small nuke at some smaller town of Sth Korea? Would the US immediately react by nuking pong nang?

If the U.S. were smart, we would immediately react by destroying all North Korean nuclear facilities, with conventional weapons where possible and nuclear weapons where necessary, and using at least one nuke if South Korea wanted it. By avoiding unnecessary civilian casualties, this would avoid ceding the moral high ground to North Korea, while eliminating any further nuclear threat from North Korea and sending a message that we take nuclear proliferation seriously.

I think it's likely we would even do that, though the current situation where our aircraft carriers are positioned only to support Afghanistan does not help. We might end up using multiple nukes.

I would also note that China's plan if North Korea goes to war with the south is a preemptive invasion of North Korea. North Korean nuclear facilities would have to be destroyed before the Chinese got there. I think we could let the Chinese take care of things on the ground, though.

[Warren Dew]

By the way, there has been scuttlebutt here lately about SK acquiring their own nukes, independent of the US. Just mentioning that to suggest the way the local sentiment is leaning.

I sometimes wonder if the South Koreans don't prefer for the North Koreans to have nukes, since that would mean that Korea would have nukes in the event of reunification. I hope that the U.S. is discouraging this by offering to withdraw all our military and leaving South Korea on its own if it gets nukes.

Also some news stories about SK asking the US to re-deploy nukes to the peninsula.

This would be a better solution.

Japan? Good grief. If the Japanese of all people are really inclined to think that way, I'd be very, very worried.

Oh...the new PM, Abe...very right-wing nationalistic. There's been talk recently of Japan re-arming itself.

"Talk"? Japan's military budget is 97% of Germany's, and half that of China. They aren't the ultrapacifistic culture they pretend to be.

[FBM]

I did not know that about Japan's military budget, Warren. Thanks. What I was talking about, though, is specific towards changing their constitution to allow Japanese forces to engage in overseas combat. Ostensibly so that they could protect their own peace-keeping troops, but ultimately...who knows?

As for Korean pride at having home-made nukes, even if they were made in the North, I imagine there's quite a bit of truth to that. SK came in second in the space race, after all.