mistermack wrote:ronmcd wrote:
I just dont think thats reality- if people vote for it, no matter what, it will happen.
No, you are still dodging it.
If the UK doesn't get a bombproof legally binding long-term deal on the nukes, it won't get through parliament. That's an absolute fact.
So Salmond would only have two choices. Agree to it, or try to do independence unilaterally.
If you know of a third choice, I'd like to hear it.
Just saying " if people vote for it, no matter what, it will happen" is a cop out.
You don't say how.
No, i'm not dodging it. You just don't like my answer. As I said, the reality is that if the people vote for independence, it will happen, because the politicians and civil servants will come to practical arrangements for the benefit of the people on these islands.
Why would the two governments not be able to reach agreement? If there were outstanding issues that would need longer, they will take longer. It may need to come back to Scotland for the people to agree to whatever the governments have agreed, possibly the rest of UK, who knows. Either way, you are suggesting that Westminister could prevent Scottish independence in a vote. But if the UK govt has already accepted the result of the referendum and so is actively engaged in negotiations, you think its credible or even worthwhile attempting to stop it by voting in the HOC? We dont like it, you cant leave? If the principle has been agreed, ie the marriage assets are in the process of being split up, what would Westministers vote even mean? At that stage it would be irrelevant. Any outstanding issues would remain such, until they were later agreed, it wouldnt stop independence.
Scotland wont need a UDI because that would be silly. There would be calm negotiations and agreement on both sides, and an agreement over the future of the nukes will be reached, probably involving a period of x years during which UK seeks alternative arrangements. Thats not a cop out, it's the reality. The two countries would not end up in a stalemate over an issue, even one as sensitive as nukes.
Won't happen, but if as you suggest negotiations break down and there is some sort of westminister vote to refuse independence on the basis of nukes, negating the result of the referendum and the rest of the negotiations, then some form of UDI probably would be indicated by the Scottish government, and with the principle already accepted that the Scots had voted for it, it would be accepted internationally. What westminister thinks ... wouldnt really matter. But as I said, that won't happen, as it won't be needed.