Predictions: Who will be the GOP Candidate?

[Ian]

Looks like my theory about 2012 being a mirror image of 1972 might well pan out:

New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... -gingrich/

Newt Gingrich is looking more and more like my "Candidate X".

[Svartalf]

OK, sorry, but I was like 4 or 5 in '72 and I'm not really a student of past US elections... would you mind explaining what happened in 72 and why today mirros it?
Plus, Nixon was running for reelection, so I suppose you make it a true mirror image by comparing it to the Dem primaries?

[Ian]

OK, sorry, but I was like 4 or 5 in '72 and I'm not really a student of past US elections... would you mind explaining what happened in 72 and why today mirros it?
Plus, Nixon was running for reelection, so I suppose you make it a true mirror image by comparing it to the Dem primaries?

To be succinct: The Democrats were out of power and over the previous few years had been dominated by far-left elements. They surprised several other candidates by nominating George McGovern, who was probably more left-of-the-national-bell-curve than anyone else who had ever been on a major party ticket. Because the US is, ultimately, a center-dominated democracy, McGovern's campaign was doomed from the start to not appeal to too many voters. He was unelectable even before the campaign began. Nixon wasn't terribly popular in '72, but he still won a huge landslide because of who his opponent was.

All of the reverse is true today. The GOP has become dominated by the Tea Party. Like Nixon in '72, Obama isn't terribly popular - but he would crush a Gingrich candidacy like roadkill.

[Svartalf]

Gingrich is the rightmost element you can muster?
I mean Perry, from what I've been able to gather, makes him look like a pinko commie, and compared to reagan or the bushes (esp junior, manipulated as he was), he might even feel like a moderate.

[Warren Dew]

Gingrich is the rightmost element you can muster?
I mean Perry, from what I've been able to gather, makes him look like a pinko commie, and compared to reagan or the bushes (esp junior, manipulated as he was), he might even feel like a moderate.

Exactly why Ian's argument makes no sense with respect to Gingrich.

[Ian]

Um, Perry's out. If Gingrich secures the nomination, that'll put him well to the right of the national mean. Unprecedentedly so, IMO. Makes perfect sense.

[Svartalf]

OK, I should have formulated "rightmost element still at least half seriously in the game".

and I'm surprised, we've not even heard of sarah palin in a couple months.

[Ian]

Right. I wasn't talking about who's too far to the right or left of their party to run. I'm talking about which nominee ultimately secures the nomination. A handful of fringe candidates run in every election, on both sides. Rarely does one actually secure the nomination for President though. But Gingrich could do it. He could be the mirror image of the '72 McGovern.

[drl2]

Gingrich is the rightmost element you can muster?
I mean Perry, from what I've been able to gather, makes him look like a pinko commie, and compared to reagan or the bushes (esp junior, manipulated as he was), he might even feel like a moderate.

If you showed a list of Reagan's actual policies to today's Fox News conservatives without using his name, they'd call him a commie liberal America-hater.

[Warren Dew]

Um, Perry's out. If Gingrich secures the nomination, that'll put him well to the right of the national mean. Unprecedentedly so, IMO. Makes perfect sense.

Every Democrat since Wilson has been well to the left of the national mean. That doesn't make them McGoverns. McGovern was way to the left - and far from, in other ways - the center of his own party. Keep in mind that this was a Democratic primary that George Wallace might well have won had he not been shot.

Ron Paul winning the nomination this year would be more like McGovern winning the Democratic nomination in 1972 - right down to running against a war originally started by a president of his own party.

[Drewish]

If the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate Gingrich because Romney is a Mormon, then fuck 'em. 4 more years of Obama it is. And I fucking HATE what Obama has done in office.

[Warren Dew]

If the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate Gingrich because Romney is a Mormon, then fuck 'em. 4 more years of Obama it is. And I fucking HATE what Obama has done in office.

But you hate balanced budgets and welfare reform even more? How can you call yourself a conservative?

[Robert_S]

Newt Gingrich scandal -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... print.html

A woman scorned... http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/exclusive ... d=15392899

Damn - he was a cold hearted bastard! LOL.

This is the same woman who started an affair with Gingrich while he was still married to his first wife, right? Live by the sword, die by the sword, I say.

As long as it's between a man and a woman, it's nobody else's business.

When you run for public office, personality traits such as honesty and integrity is other people's business
If you want to lead a private life, don't run for public office

Newt Gingrich scandal -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... print.html

A woman scorned... http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/exclusive ... d=15392899

Damn - he was a cold hearted bastard! LOL.

This is the same woman who started an affair with Gingrich while he was still married to his first wife, right? Live by the sword, die by the sword, I say.

As long as it's between a man and a woman, it's nobody else's business.

To a degree, yes. However, it depends on the conduct. If it's true that he was not only having an affair, but bringing the other woman home and fucking her in the marriage bed, calling his wife at home and saying "I love you" while the other woman was listening, banging on for years while lying about it, and then breaking up with one's spouse weeks or a a few months after she was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis...to me, that reveals a certain narcissistic coldness and callousness that is unbecoming. It's not the fucking, but the attitude and how he treats people, that is most of a concern to me. But, I don't know what is true right now. So far, he has issued a general denial. We're not clear what he admits and what he doesn't.

Also, he is in no position to moralize and talk about values and such. I don't want to hear him talk about declining values or morals, or start in on social conservatism. To that extent, I might prefer his brand of scumbag-ism to some other candidate's sanctimonious preaching and attempt to legislate in the bedroom.

I meant that as long as it's not gay, God won't get too pissed off.

[FBM]

Looks like Romney is getting a good deal on his tax rates. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16696347

He's paying roughly 15%, which is the tax rate for a head of household who makes from about $12,000 to $46,000. And he's made $46.5 million in the last two years.

[Warren Dew]

Looks like Romney is getting a good deal on his tax rates. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16696347

He's paying roughly 15%, which is the tax rate for a head of household who makes from about $12,000 to $46,000. And he's made $46.5 million in the last two years.

Not as good a deal as Buffett, who pays 0.6%:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... on_LEADTop

I note that unlike Gingrich, Romney is not advocating reducing his own and Buffett's tax rates to zero by removing capital gains taxes.