What's the old joke? If you ask a question of five different economists, you'll get five different answers. Or six if one of them went to Harvard.Cormac wrote: ...
It is easy when you have a budget, and an imperative to "find" a winner every year.
And there's always an economist around who'll say precisely what their paymasters want.
"If you laid every economist in the world end to end they'd still point in all directions."klr wrote:What's the old joke? If you ask a question of five different economists, you'll get five different answers. Or six if one of them went to Harvard.
You have to wonder if the Delphic Oracle was such a bad idea after all.
Ein Ubootsoldat wrote:“Ich melde mich ab. Grüssen Sie bitte meine Kameraden.”
Svartalf wrote:I resent the economist bashing, my revered dad was one.
A song from a fine and feisty Australian band called Redgum...Cormac wrote:Svartalf wrote:I resent the economist bashing, my revered dad was one.
Economists are fine, except when they forget that everythin they say is contingent on an "if", and nothing they say about the future is in any way reliable at all - because of probability and risk.
Joe spoke no english but he had a dream
And he saved up most of his pay
To bring his wife and six kids from Lebanon
And settle down here to stay
You could feel the prison of his loneliness
He wouldn't see them for years
He kept brandy behind the compressed air tanks
And he gulped it when the coast was clear
Nick the Greek collected tropical fish
Had to be a character too
Smuggled in Pirhana just to break the law
And he fed them on kangaroo
Bob's pride was his handlebar moustache
Said he still combed out sand
Pushed a tank through the Sahara desert
So they made him the leading hand
And the summer night shifts were long and cool
Charlie chain smoked cigars
David sweated in his speckled paint mask
As he gazed out at the stars
Crazy Charlie was a Yugoslav
His old straight eight Chevy could move
His ambition was to live on a hippie commune
When Dave told him about free love
Fred had been a farmer and a heavyweight champ
Hands like a stump jump plough
Moved the earth with a thrust of his arms
He was loading on the paint line now
And the boys made a noise every Friday night
At the bar of the Hilton Hotel
Downing pints and chewing the fat
Till the ten o'clock closing bell
It was only rumour til the foreman came
And hiding his shame with a cough
He said they're cutting back down to one shift now
They're gonna have to lay you off
Joe held his gaze and gulped a brandy
And spat it out at his feet
Bob stood bolt still looking thunderstruck
Nick swore for an hour in Greek
Their anger was spent in a rush of fire
And smouldered out of mind
When they shook hands on that last grey day
Each was in his way resigned
Then a few days later I saw old Joe
Looking like he'd aged ten years
Drunk on the tiles at the Stag Hotel
And he couldn't hold back the tears
Fred had talked of his grueling heavyweight bouts
I remembered what he'd said
There's no giving up on that killing floor
If you don't fight you're dead
If you work with your hands for your livelihood
Some day you might have to choose
When the class war rages on the factory floor
If you don't fight you lose
If you don't fight you lose
If you don't fight you lose
If you don't fight you lose
If you don't fight you lose
If you don't fight you lose
If you don't fight
If you don't fight you lose
If you don't fight you lose
Read more: REDGUM - KILLING FLOOR LYRICS
North Korea loaded nuclear warhead on missile
The U.S. recovered the front section of the rocket used in North Korea’s satellite launch in December, which gave away the status of the regime's nuclear-arms program.
When North Korean engineers launched a satellite into space December 12, it seemed like business as usual, with the familiar cycle of condemnations from the West and statements of defiance from the Hermit Kingdom.
But that launch also led many U.S. intelligence analysts to assess that Pyongyang possessed the ability to miniaturize the components necessary to yield a nuclear explosion for a crude warhead that would sit atop a ballistic missile.
After the North Korean launch, U.S. Navy ships managed to recover the front section of the rocket used in it, according to three U.S. officials who work closely on North Korean proliferation.
That part of the rocket in turn provided useful clues about North Korean warhead design, should the next payload be a warhead rather than a satellite.
The same basic engineering and science needed to launch a satellite into space is also used in the multistage rockets known as intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The front of the satellite rocket, according to three U.S. officials who work closely on North Korean proliferation, gave tangible proof that North Korea was building the missile’s cone at dimensions for a nuclear warhead, durable enough to be placed on a long-range missile that could reenter the earth’s atmosphere from space.
“Having access to the missile front was a critical insight we had not had before,” one U.S. nonproliferation official tells The Daily Beast. “I have seen a lot of drawings, but we had not seen the piece of that missile at that time.”
This official continues: “We looked at the wreckage from the launch and we put it together with other kinds of intelligence and came to this judgment that they had figured out the warhead piece.”
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a classified assessment last month saying that it now has “moderate confidence” that the “North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles however the reliability will be low,” South Korea has provided additional intelligence bolstering this conclusion, according to U.S. officials.
That assessment, in line with, but more assertive than earlier comments from the agency, was made public three days ago in a question from Rep. Doug Lamborn, a Republican from Colorado, to the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey.
Pentagon spokesman George Little and the director of national intelligence, James Clapper, soon after the disclosure issued statements trying to play down the news.
Clapper said, “It would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully developed and tested the kinds of nuclear weapons referenced in the passage.” He added, “North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile.”
But neither Little nor Clapper disputed the basic judgment that North Korea could likely build a nuclear warhead of low reliability.
While the DIA assessment does not represent the view of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, the recovered satellite rocket helped move CIA analysts away from their skepticism about North Korea’s ability to build a nuclear warhead as well.
“The DIA was always more forward leaning on this,” one U.S. official said. “The CIA was always extremely cautious on this. The doubters in the CIA finally found some common ground with DIA when we did the recovery.”
Intelligence suggesting North Korea could design a nuclear warhead has been building for many years.
A.Q. Khan, the man considered to be the father of the Pakistani nuclear program, for example, has said in interviews and correspondence that in 1999 on a visit to North Korea, he was shown boxes of components for three finished nuclear warheads that could be assembled within an hour.
Yup, I mentioned that a couple of pages ago, specifically the furore about the "undercover" aspect. But how else would one hope to get anything like an accurate picture of life in NK?Rum wrote:Not sure if it has been covered here (long thread!) but there was a controversial documentary on BBC1 on Monday night on the current affairs program Panorama. The controversy was about a BBC reporter team smuggling themselves into NK with a LSE student tour group (and therefore potentially putting them in danger). That issue aside it did show the NKs as a starved, brainwashed, hysterically baying mob dearly wanting war to break out. It was so extreme that I would have called foul/propaganda but Panorama is known for its impartiality - even its left leaning position on many issues. The people do appear to be very rigidly and pretty completely controlled by the party. Nothing new perhaps from some people's perspective but as someone who takes such things with a pinch of salt it was confirmation.
Link:- http://www.guardian.co.uk/tv-and-radio/ ... rea-review
N.Korea Blocks Emergency Rations for Kaesong Staff
North Korea rejected a request by South Korean businesspeople to visit the inter-Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex just north of the border to deliver food and daily necessities to remaining South Korean staff.
The Unification Ministry said a dozen South Korean businessmen had sought to deliver the supplies and tour the industrial park, where operations have been halted since North Korea closed the border on April 9.
South Korean officials had been closely watching North Korea's reaction to the request, hoping it would enable them to gauge the way the crisis is developing. Some hoped that the North would allow the businesspeople to enter on humanitarian grounds.
But instead the North blamed South Korea for the shutdown of the complex, which Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Hyung-seok called "incomprehensible."
Some 205 South Korean staff remain at the industrial park, most of them to protect the equipment and other assets of the 123 South Korean manufacturers operating there.
Their well-being is at risk now that food, medicine, fuel and other supplies have been blocked for two weeks.
North Korea on Sunday also rejected an offer of dialogue from President Park Geun-hye as a "cunning ploy" and has continued with vitriolic attacks, saying Tuesday that its decision to shut down operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex was "natural."
2 more Scud missile launchers moved to N. Korea's east coast
North Korea recently moved two additional missile launchers believed to be for Scud missiles to its east coast, a military source familiar with the matter said Sunday, in yet another sign of preparations for a missile launch at a volatile time on the Korean Peninsula.
According to intelligence authorities, the North in early April moved two mid-range Musudan missiles to Wonsan, and placed seven mobile missile transporter-erector-launchers (TEL) in Wonsan and South Hamgyeong Province at its eastern coast.
Coupled with warning diplomats in Pyongyang to leave in case of war, the missiles fueled speculation of a possible launch before the April 15 celebrations of the 101st anniversary of the birth of late founder Kim Il-sung. But Seoul's defense ministry said the North Korean armed forces have not made any uncommon movements as of late.
However, satellite imagery released after April 16 showed that two additional TELs for shorter-range Scud missiles were moved to South Hamgyeong Province, a military source said, asking for anonymity citing confidential information, fueling questions over the North's true intention.
"The military is closely watching the North's latest preparations for a missile launch," the source said.
...
Looking less like preparation for a missile test. They would only need one or two for that.
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