Here comes the other economic shoe dropping...

[Coito ergo sum]

Somebody is manipulating the fuck out of the stock market --- http://www.cnbc.com/id/45060274 It's great for a day, but this kind of massive swing is not necessarily a great indicator...

S&P has best month in 35 years --- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... rally.html

What is accounting for this? The European woes? Have people jumped ship and ran back to the US?

[FBM]

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/27/news/ec ... ?hpt=hp_t2

GDP report: Growth nearly doubles

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The nation's economy regained some much-needed strength in the third quarter, as the pace of growth nearly doubled compared to the previous three months.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of U.S. economic health, grew at a 2.5% annual rate in the quarter after adjusting for inflation. That's up from the disappointing 1.3% growth in the second quarter and the anemic 0.4% pace in the first three months of the year.

"The economy has shed fears of a double-dip recession," said Sung Won Sohn, economics professor at Cal State University-Channel Islands, who said growth is no longer "stuck in neutral going nowhere fast.

"However, it is too early to celebrate a return to a robust economic recovery," he added.

Stronger consumer spending was a key driver in the improved reading, as personal consumption jumped to a 2.4% growth rate from only 0.7% gain in the second quarter.

Businesses also spent more, as investment in equipment and software, a good barometer of that reading, spiked to a 17.4% growth rate.

That spending helped to make up for the cutback in government spending, which was constrained by both the debt ceiling debate in Washington, and budget cuts at the start of new fiscal years for state and local governments.

Nondefense federal spending fell at a 3.7% rate, while state and local government spending declined at a 1.3% rate.

"Historically, this sector has added 0.25 percentage points to economic growth. This year, it will subtract from growth by that much," said Sohn.

The 2.5% growth rate is still considered a bit below average during an economic recovery, and mostly looks good in comparison to the weak first half of this year. Economists say it typically takes growth of 3% or better to prompt businesses to start hiring again to meet stronger demand for their products.

And economists surveyed by CNNMoney ahead of the report forecast that growth will slow down again in the fourth quarter and throughout 2012, as they expect a 2.2% annual growth rate in the fourth quarter, and 2.3% growth from that quarter through the end of 2012.

"The better-than-expected performance this summer doesn't look sustainable," said Kathy Bostjancic, director for macroeconomic analysis for The Conference Board. "Weak consumer sentiment could limit the rise in consumption through the holiday season and right into winter. Cuts in spending by state and local municipalities weigh on the economy."

Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said the increased consumer spending came from cuts in the savings rate rather than from gains in income. He's also concerned that exports, an area of strength in recent quarters, are likely to decline in coming quarters due to slowdowns around the world. And he's looking for further cutbacks in government spending.

"The upshot is that a lot of the strength in the third quarter was due to temporary factors that will fade next year," he said.

con't in link...

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Economy grew 2.5 pct. in Q3 as consumers rebound

[Coito ergo sum]

Interesting - the BEA describes the reason for the jump in GDP to be the result of what's called "personal consumption expenditures." That's what people spend for personal and household goods. Interestingly, PCE goes up when inflation is high. Consumer and Wholesale Inflation Jumped in September • September’s Annual Inflation: 3.9% (CPI-U), 4.4% (CPI-W), 11.5% (SGS) • Annual PPI Inflation Hits 6.9% in September. So, it appears that some of the GDP is a result of rising personal consumption expenditures, at least partly as a result of inflation.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nationa ... elease.htm

Exports went up largely because of the shit dollar.

nonresidential fixed investment apparently went up too - which is interesting. I wonder what industries were involved in those fixed investments.

and the last category was federal government spending.

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in PCE and in
nonresidential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending that were
partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment.

PCE is an inflation index. Gotta love the number crunchers - high inflation (overall, not just the consumer price index, which doesn't take into account most of the economy) is making people spend more money on consumer and household goods, so they count that as an increase in Gross Domestic Product.

Some of the 2.5% was real productive improvements, though. So that's good. Let's hope it continues through the 4th Q.

[Schneibster]

So basically the Republican Teagagger Party is either impatient or lying.

Glad we got that figured out.

[Coito ergo sum]

They probably are doing both. That doesn't change the fact that a wild swing in the stock market and a 2.5% growth in one quarter that is based primarily on the PCE going up does not a great recovery make. There are still major issues, not the least of which is that weekly unemployment claims are again up over 400,000 and unemployment remains over 9% (well, really almost double that, if we used the method used in 1981). And, inflation, despite the useless CPI number, is going up up up.

[Coito ergo sum]

[Atheist-Lite]

Google took a four percent hit on its shareprice today over some half baked deal with motorola? I'd have thought it was more news worthy?

[Coito ergo sum]

Retail sales rose at the weakest pace in seven months in December as consumers pulled back late in the holiday shopping season, cutting purchases at department stores and spending less on electronic gadgets.

Total retail sales increased 0.1 percent after rising by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in November, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales climbing 0.3 percent last month.

The upward revision for November sales suggests consumers likely frontloaded their holiday shopping. The government had initially estimated retail sales gained 0.2 percent in Novembe

r. http://www.cnbc.com/id/45970005

And, January reality sets in...

[Ian]

January reality indeed...

Stealth Jobs Boom
Friday's jobs report showed a gain of 243,000 jobs. But a separate survey of households used to determine the unemployment rate shows much, much stronger job gains.

The number of people saying they were employed increased by 631,000 in January alone. That's the biggest one-month gain since just before the Great Recession started in late 2007.

And the three-month and six-month increases are similarly impressive -- 1.1 million more say they have jobs compared to October, and nearly 2 million more people say they're working since July's reading.

That is the best six-month job gain since August 2005, when the unemployment rate was a healthy 4.9%. January's unemployment rate is still a painfully high 8.3%. But the unemployment rate has fallen from 9.1% in the last six months on the strength of the increasing number of those saying they have found work.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/news/ec ... ce=cnn_bin

Dow at nearly 4-year high after 'monster' jobs report
The rally was sparked by the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, which showed that the U.S. economy added 243,000 jobs in January, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, the lowest since February 2009.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/markets ... ce=cnn_bin

2012 "Nothing Like 2008"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46233396

Then again...

Is the Worst Really Over?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46253572

[Coito ergo sum]

So, the argument is that after three years, thanks to all the good things Obama did, we "may" finally be hitting rock bottom?

Congressional Budget Office - real unemployment is 10% -- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/latest-co ... 2-released

"Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent" translation: CBO just admitted that the BLS numbers are bogus and real unemployment is 10%.

Labor force participation rate falls to lowest point in over 30 years -- http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Unemployment is only going down because people have dropped out of the labor force.

And, let's take a look at the supposed "monster" jobs numbers:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Companies slowed their hiring in January, according to a report by payroll processor ADP.
The private sector added 170,000 jobs in the month, ADP said Wednesday, missing forecasts of 200,000 jobs that economists polled by Briefing.com had predicted.

The previous month was also weaker than originally reported. December's strong number -- first reported as 325,000 jobs -- was revised down to 292,000.

So -- wait for the "revision downward" of this "monster" jobs number.

[Svartalf]

Google took a four percent hit on its shareprice today over some half baked deal with motorola? I'd have thought it was more news worthy?

And I bet that the only people hurt are the sleazeball top execs whose bonuses depend on share prices, and various speculators who trade on stocks rather than investing in them and waiting for the dividends.

[Ian]

So, the argument is that after three years, thanks to all the good things Obama did, we "may" finally be hitting rock bottom?

No, rock bottom was in spring 2009. The economy has been growing ever since, and now unemployment (always late to rebound during a recovery) is finally catching up. The argument is that the recovery is becoming more and more obvious. And you're the one who mentioned Obama, not me.

Surely you're not under the impression that things have been getting worse all this time?

I thought the point of the thread title is that things are about to grow worse again...



...any time now...


...sooner or later...

[Coito ergo sum]

So, the argument is that after three years, thanks to all the good things Obama did, we "may" finally be hitting rock bottom?

No, rock bottom was in spring 2009. The economy has been growing ever since,

GDP, yes - anemically.

and now unemployment (always late to rebound during a recovery) is finally catching up.

Again, the only reason it's gone down, really, is record numbers leaving the job market. The CBO said real unemployment is over 10%.

The argument is that the recovery is becoming more and more obvious. And you're the one who mentioned Obama, not me.

Surely you're not under the impression that things have been getting worse all this time?

I thought the point of the thread title is that things are about to grow worse again...

No - what I'm saying is that this has been one of the longest catastrophes in American economic history. Most recessions have come and gone a long time ago....

Yes, the point of the thread is that things are about to get worse again, and in many ways they have been. 2011 was THE WORST housing year in American history. Way to make it better!

You have anemic GDP on your side, and an 8.3% unemployment rate mostly due to government employment and people leaving the workforce. You think that's the measure of the economy? 2012 "may" be a worse housing year than 2011 -- bankruptcies are still very high - foreclosures are still at record paces. We continue to bleed industries.

If you think that you've shown some kind of a turnaround, you've been sold a bill of goods.

...any time now...


...sooner or later...

In case you haven't noticed -- things still suck ass. The economy is, at best, not getting worse. The GDP is miserable. The unemployment rate is sky high and the numbers are not looking better for any good reasons.

[Ian]

Well, what did the "adjusted" employment numbers look like earlier, when the official ones were even worse? And by the way - government employment is way down from three years ago. Not to mention what the bastards in Congress have done to our pay. So that's hardly something that's buoying the employment numbers. As for record numbers leaving the job market, that's quite debateable. Plenty of people left a while ago. But how many have returned, now that hiring is way up?

As for the "worst year in housing history" - perhaps you haven't noticed that foreclosure rates are way down! So that statement is just not correct. 2009 and 2010 were worse.

Granted, the stock market alone does not the economy make. Neither does the unemployment numbers. Neither does the housing market, or the manufacturing sector, or the inflation rate, or consumer confidence, et cetera...

But I'm only looking at the macro and the trend lines. There is undeniable recovery, there has been growth more than 2.5 years, and it appears to be accelerating.

The only economic "shoe" I'm genuinely worried about is Europe.