Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

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Coito ergo sum
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Coito ergo sum » Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:47 pm

MrJonno wrote:Libya already had a war going on it , we took sides it wasnt a stable safe country.
Iraq was not a stable, safe country. It was a brutal dictatorship, and the only reason there wasn't a civil war is that Hussein was successful in eradicating his opponents. By your logic, it is an unjust war to oppose the really successful tyrants and mass-murderers, but perfect fine to oppose the ones that aren't quite as efficient.
MrJonno wrote: We were also sensible enough not to put troops in there which would have just united much of the country against us. This was at least for the moment a successful foreign policy Libya may turn into a hell hole in the future but I don't believe NATO can be blamed for this if it does happen
It is certainly worse in Libya NOW than it was a year or two ago.
MrJonno wrote:
We did have tha to opportunity in the early 1990's with Iraq and we should have taken it then to support then rebellion instead we let them lose for our political self interest.
So, you're saying we should have done it in 1992, and wrongly delayed action, and when we finally took the action we should have taken (after trying non-military methods for 10 years), that action became wrong by virtue of delay?

Yours is the argument Hitch always made, except he concluded that the liberation of Iraq was the right thing to do, and was long delayed. See The Long Short War. His seems the more logical conclusion - that if we made the mistake of not intervening once, that to repeat that mistake would not be the right thing to do.

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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by MrJonno » Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:02 pm

By your logic, it is an unjust war to oppose the really successful tyrants and mass-murderers, but perfect fine to oppose the ones that aren't quite as efficient.
Bringing a tyrant to justice for mass murder is not sufficent reason to start a war (assassination/kidnap fine by me). Stopping a tyrant before or while he commits mass murder is justified as you are doing more good than bad

Want to start a war with China or Russia because they have done terrible things in the past?, Would launching an invasion make life better for the Chinese or Russians. Neither have perfect governments but I'm sure their people would prefer not to be in the middle of a war zone
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Coito ergo sum » Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:07 pm

MrJonno wrote:
By your logic, it is an unjust war to oppose the really successful tyrants and mass-murderers, but perfect fine to oppose the ones that aren't quite as efficient.
Bringing a tyrant to justice for mass murder is not sufficent reason to start a war (assassination/kidnap fine by me). Stopping a tyrant before or while he commits mass murder is justified as you are doing more good than bad
Good, there was more murder going on in Iraq in 2002, than in Libya in 2011.
MrJonno wrote:
Want to start a war with China or Russia because they have done terrible things in the past?,
No - but, China is doing terrible things now. Do you want to start a war with them?
MrJonno wrote:
Would launching an invasion make life better for the Chinese or Russians. Neither have perfect governments but I'm sure their people would prefer not to be in the middle of a war zone
Life is better in Iraq now. Nobody knows what will happen in the future for sure.

In Iraq, the people absolutely wanted Hussein gone.

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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by JimC » Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:40 am

If Iran does attempt to close the Gulf of Hormuz to shipping, the US (and hopefully a coalition of allies) would be perfectly justified in taking military action.

This would be a very different situation to taking unilateral action on the basis of a possible future nuclear threat from Iran...
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Atheist-Lite » Thu Jan 05, 2012 6:22 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

No reaction on the markets yet. Looks like there's gonna be some heavy fixing behind the scenes to hold the price steady. Seems like this could be enough to trip the global pricing mechanism to a much higher level and crash the system? Everyone behaving on self-interest means it looks rather bleak for a good outcome here? :smoke:
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:18 am

I have personally participated in "Freedom of Navigation" exercises. The last one was round about 38°31'51.92" N 123°43'47.80" E. Certain parties knew we had three CVNs in the West Sea at the time. They declined to object to our presence.
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Clinton Huxley » Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:22 am

Chill, nothing is going to happen....
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I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled"

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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:23 am

Clinton Huxley wrote:Chill, nothing is going to happen....
Yeah, that's what happens when a eunuch gets into a dick-size war. :hehe:
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by JimC » Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:25 am

Clinton Huxley wrote:Chill, nothing is going to happen....
Yes, I suspect that Iranian chap is "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing"
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Jan 05, 2012 8:26 am

JimC wrote:
Clinton Huxley wrote:Chill, nothing is going to happen....
Yes, I suspect that Iranian chap is "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing"
Puck 'em.
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Atheist-Lite » Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:48 am

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/busin ... ml?_r=1&hp

Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz

HOUSTON — If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.

An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according to most Middle East political experts.

United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.

Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,” according to Energy Department analysts.

A blockade would also punish China, Iran’s most important oil customer and a major recipient of Persian Gulf oil. China has invested heavily in Iranian oil fields and has opposed Western efforts to sanction Iran over its nuclear program.

Despite such deterrents to armed confrontation, oil and foreign policy analysts say a miscalculation is possible that could cause an overreaction from one side or the other.

(continued)

In case the cock-up theory of history proves right once again stock up on beans and bottled water, whilst there is time. :tup:
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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Warren Dew » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:22 am

Crumple wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/busin ... ml?_r=1&hp

Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz
Skyrocketing oil prices, huge increases in energy conservation, the Iranian Navy gets bombed into oblivion ... what's not to like?

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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Eddie » Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:40 am

It's obvious that some major shit's about to pop out, if not this year than next year for sure. I wonder if China and Russia are going to watch US attack Iran and do nothing about it. Might as well kick back and enjoy the fireworks. Just hope they don't go nuclear and fuck up the rest of us who don't care about oil and geopolitics.

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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by Clinton Huxley » Thu Jan 05, 2012 11:29 am

Russia/EU/US/China in a shootin' war over Iran? Nah.
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I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled"

AND MERRY XMAS TO ONE AND All!

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Re: Iran Warns US to Stay Out of Persian Gulf, or Else.

Post by MrJonno » Thu Jan 05, 2012 11:41 am

Countries like Iran's oil but no one likes Iran that much
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